Strongest El Nino in a century? What this rare phenomenon could bring.

[Zorro]

Last edited Mon Apr 6, 2026, 02:33 PM - Edit history (1)

The chances for a planet-warming super El Niño this year are rising, according to an updated model forecast issued Sunday.

The latest ECMWF outlook indicates there’s a high chance for a supercharged version of the climate pattern that affects regional-to-global weather patterns this summer or fall, doubling down on a super El Niño prediction from last month.

During a typical El Niño, a warming patch of water in the equatorial Pacific Ocean influences what regions experience droughts, floods, extreme heat, hurricanes and declining sea ice. During relatively rare super El Niño events, happening once every 10 to 15 years on average, the effects may be stronger, more persistent and more widespread.

That’s because sea temperatures in that key region of the Pacific Ocean warm more than 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above average, leading to a strong atmospheric response — typically peaking in December or January.

https://wapo.st/4sSO7gp

Drought, famine, pestilence, war...sounds like a wonderful year ahead...

[ananda]

1. OK, this means more hurricanes in the Pacific...

and fewer and less strong in the Atlantic.

[AllaN01Bear]

2. nag ware . woudlnt let me continue . thanks for the sumary.

note also could mean heavy sno for the sierra nevada mountains in ca.

[k55f5r]

3. I was working in SoCal in the late 90's

And experienced an El nino event. Hemet California had a foot of water washing down main Street for A whole week. I saw a person in a canoe cruising down main.
On the job site, huge mining trucks were sliding off the road due to the mud and silt.

[Auggie]

4. Not all El Nino events are the same

The San Francisco Chronicle did a deep dive into these last month or so. No way of knowing what will actually happen or how severe the results.