Artemis pros and cons

[misanthrope]

We were due to meet friends for dinner at 7 p.m. CT and everyone agreed to hold off another 15 minutes or so to watch the scheduled splashdown. The return to Earth turned out optimal and it was a relief.

We arrived before our dining companions and noted all the TVs in the restaurant were trained to Artemis coverage, away from their usual sports. One server, a young lady in her 20s spoke of how everyone there was riveted to the screens and how nervous she had been. It occurred to me that I automatically compared it to all the space program's splashdowns and landings I had seen over the course of my life, then realized she didn't have the same comparison. Her parents might not have been born yet the last time the lunar program was up and running.

Then I considered how we have crews travel beyond the atmosphere and return all the time. The International Space Station has been continually inhabited for a quarter century now. Little of that gets this same kind of media attention.

I didn't want to tell that young server that her current tension and excitement is likely to fade soon. It happened in the early 1970s, when the public quickly became inured to regular moon missions. It happened with the space shuttle program, even though a pair of tragedies reminded all of us how risky it still remained. It has happened with ISS.

So many people were eager to squeal on social media tonight that they "love science," but do they really? Do they really crave science news? Do they know what the scientific method is and how it works? Do they approach their lives in an evidence-based fashion, or exercise rational skepticism? Are they possessed of a eternal curiosity about how things work, or why the universe behaves the way it does? Or are they simply entertained by high-profile, science-related stories played up for dramatic effect?

Sadly, evidence provided by the way Americans lead their lives, by the choices they make, would say it is more likely the last of those questions posed.

Still though, if the media keeps the fervor for lunar exploration stoked until Artemis IV in 2028, it could play into Mark Kelly's favor should he run for POTUS. It is going to be very hard for doddering Donnie and thoroughly unlikeable Vance to look better than a sure-enough fighter pilot and astronaut if public sentiment is swinging back in the direction of NASA friendliness.

[BlueWaveNeverEnd]

1. Why no more space shuttles? Why is space space travel exactly as it was in rhe 1960s?

[Cheezoholic]

3. One reason is NASA's budget has been slashed to about the cost of 5 B1 Bombers, yet they went to the moon on that n/t

[misanthrope]

5. Space travel isn't exactly the same

There have been dramatic differences in some of the technology. Look at the differences in the Apollo capsules and the Artemis capsules, the greatly increased room, communications, monitoring systems and so on. The interior cubic footage has greatly increased as well.

All the way it looks the same are dictated by the limits physics imposes on our overall tech. Our methods of travel are puny compared to what is required to explore the solar system.

[Cheezoholic]

2. I believe this time it's different. The Space Station is coming down because it has to. Shuttles were no longer need

Interest in Shuttle launches was actually greater during the 2000's than in the 80's and 90's because of the internet and HD multi camera views of launches. And people could watch WHEN they could. Just because the big 3 stations didn't break news coverage there was/is a HUGE following of all things rockets numbering in the millions. Yes I'm a biased rocket nerd but for all of the complaining about lack of coverage the number of people watching this one come in online was over 10 million, and that's on all the sites I go to both US and Internationally. That's not a small number.

And like it or not, humans in space next step is the moon and a moon base. The station isn't coming down because nobody cares, its coming down because its nearly 30 years old and like anything manmade it's breaking down. You can't just "change the oil" on something as big and complicated as the station when it needs it. It's in Low Earth Orbit which is about the most hostile and dangerous part of "space" there is. The fact that it will have been up there 10 years past its estimated life span is a testament to the interest of keeping it going. But a moon base is the next inevitable step. Low Earth Orbit is far to dangerous for humans, 100 times more dangerous than a moon base. A permanent moon base is the logical next step. And trust me, theres a HUGE amount of interest in it. Its just not going to interrupt TV programs. Its in social communities on the web devoted to it. And if you took a couple hours and looked you'd be astounded. The numbers are in the millions, 10's of millions.
Respectfully

[misanthrope]

4. I don't recall mentioning ISS obsolescence

I didn't factor the ISS fate into what I proffered. I was basing that on human behavior I have witnessed over my lifetime.

I point to major network coverage because it is symptomatic. Yes, it can help drive public interest but in an era of media fragmentation where networks are desperate for every viewer, it is highly indicative of public interest. That is likely to increase until Artemis IV completes its mission.

You're right that 10 million isn't "a small number," but if that is from online viewership then the potential market would be global, not just in the U.S. That places the market size in the billions.

I don't doubt that there is core of people whose interest in the space program will endure; I just think the average person is myopic and easily distracted. We've seen this happen previously and I don't believe the species has dramatically changed its innate behavior in the last half-century. For instance, the restaurant server mentioned in the OP also told us there were customers who actually complained when the TVs were switched from the Masters golf tournament to splashdown coverage.

Also, I encounter so much willful ignorance, stupidity, selfishness and lack of appreciation every time I leave the house that it doesn't give me any indication people are suddenly attuned to the life of the mind. Go read the reddit megathread on splashdown coverage. What remaining factotum of faith I had in people was pretty much shattered in November 2024.

I also think oncoming climate change is going to stress civilization in a way not fully anticipated yet. Combined with growing wealth disparities and how AI might be changing employment scenarios (and the resulting downstream effects), it might become harder to hold together a space program than currently realized.

I understand your enthusiasm and respect it. I am just jaded.