General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsWhy gun deaths are decreasing, in one graphic.
Thanks, doc.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324712504578131360684277812.html
Within minutes, Daniel was in the care of flight paramedics in a Maryland State Police helicopter en route to the R Adams Cowley Shock Trauma Center at the University of Maryland Medical Center. There, using new techniques borrowed from battlefield medicine, the doctors "saved his life," said Daniel's mother, Rosemary Borowy, weeks after the shooting. "They gave him back to us."
After a steady decline through the 1990s, the annual number of homicides zigzagged before resuming a decline in 2007, falling from 16,929 that year to an estimated 14,722 in 2010, according to FBI crime data.
At the same time, medical data and other surveys in the U.S. show a rising number of serious injuries from assaults with guns and knives. The estimated number of people wounded seriously enough by gunshots to require a hospital stay, rather than treatment and release, rose 47% to 30,759 in 2011 from 20,844 in 2001, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Electronic Injury Surveillance System-All Injury Program. The CDC estimates showed the number of people injured in serious stabbings rose to 23,550 from 22,047 over the same period.
Mortality rates of gunshot victims, meanwhile, have fallen, according to research performed for The Wall Street Journal by the Howard-Hopkins Surgical Outcomes Research Center, a joint venture between Howard University and Johns Hopkins University. In 2010, 13.96% of U.S. shooting victims died, almost two percentage points lower than in 2007. (Earlier data used different standards, making comparisons useless.)
KG
(28,752 posts)Recursion
(56,582 posts)We're still experiencing the most precipitous drop in crime rates in history, and have been for 20 years or so.
Robb
(39,665 posts)Recursion
(56,582 posts)The rates of both shootings and stabbings (not just deaths from them) are about half what they were 20 years ago. The increases over the past couple of years are at the noise level.
Robb
(39,665 posts)...further back than a few years.
Do you have access to better data? Can you direct me to it?
Recursion
(56,582 posts)I'm sure there are aggravated assaults that are with something other than a gun or a knife, but we aren't talking about a lot there.
From the FBI: http://www.ucrdatatool.gov/Search/Crime/State/TrendsInOneVar.cfm?NoVariables=Y&CFID=18740095&CFTOKEN=df5a697c86a6a747-DB5851E9-9993-718D-25806A7B46CCDCBB
(That may or may not work since it was a custom query.)
1982 1,322,390
1983 1,258,087
1984 1,273,282
1985 1,327,767
1986 1,489,169
1987 1,483,999
1988 1,566,221
1989 1,646,037
1990 1,820,127
1991 1,911,767
1992 1,932,274
1993 1,926,017
1994 1,857,670
1995 1,798,792
1996 1,688,540
1997 1,636,096
1998 1,533,887
1999 1,426,044
2000 1,425,486
2001 1,439,480
2002 1,423,677
2003 1,383,676
2004 1,360,088
2005 1,390,745
2006 1,418,043
2007 1,408,337
2008 1,392,629
2009 1,325,896
2010 1,246,248
Note that 2010 was under every previous year in absolute number of aggravated assaults, not just the rate per 100k. If you divide by the population of the US in each year, you wind up with an aggravated assault rate less than half of what it was in the mid 1990s.
Robb
(39,665 posts)I might've guessed the same, and been wrong too.
http://www2.fbi.gov/ucr/cius2009/offenses/violent_crime/aggravated_assault.html
Tommy_Carcetti
(43,198 posts)Better medical treatment results in more survivors.
It has nothing to do with CCWs.
DanTex
(20,709 posts)...compared to other wealthy nations. It's because the death rate from gun assaults is much higher than from knife assaults (or other weapons). The weapon matters. If you reduce access to guns, and crimes and arguments involve less deadly weapons instead, then you end up with less homicides.
samsingh
(17,601 posts)good
Walk away
(9,494 posts)In England the death rate by knife is the same per capita as the US but the United States death rate by gun is 15 times the gun death rate in Great Britain.
jeff47
(26,549 posts)Perhaps you could restate your objection in a way that makes it an objection?
onehandle
(51,122 posts)Lizzie Poppet
(10,164 posts)Unless there have been changes in treatment for gunshot and stab wounds instituted during the (extremely short) period of time included in the analysis, attribution of the decline in fatalities to improved medical treatment is dubious at best.
DanTex
(20,709 posts)Lizzie Poppet
(10,164 posts)Or, given the connection between gun violence and our stupid War on Drugs, maybe more of the shooters were indulging in their merchandise...
Good point, above, re: the deadlier nature of firearms in comparison to knives. Most people don't carry "serious" knives (big difference in deadliness between a little folding pocketknife and a large fighting knife that's halfway to being a shortsword), nor do they know how to fight with a knife. It's a lot easier to learn to shoot well enough to hit a target the size of a person at close range than it is to learn to fight effectively with a knife.
I also suspect most of those "stab" wounds were actually slices. Nasty, and if long and deep enough potentially deadly...but still less chance of damaging a vital organ than a penetration wound. All gunshot wounds are penetration wounds, however...
In any case, I concur that effective methods to reduce access to firearms by those who shouldn't have them are needed. Unfortunately, gun control efforts tend to be made in areas of extremely poor return (for the political capital spent). People are going after the low hanging fruit of "assault weapons" because they believe it to be politically possible...and ignoring the likelihood that any success at this will make efforts to curb the (literally) exponentially greater problem of handguns in the possession of criminals vastly more difficult when the gun lobby says "we've compromised enough."
But I'm drifting off topic...sorry!
slackmaster
(60,567 posts)The "gun demographic" is not the same thing as the "crime demographic."
DanTex
(20,709 posts)slackmaster
(60,567 posts)Now would be a good time for that.
DanTex
(20,709 posts)rightsideout
(978 posts)Maryland was one of the first major trauma centers set up in the country. They based the model on military MASH units from the Vietnam war so Medevac helicopters are a major part of the system. Since Baltimore is pretty much in the center of Maryland the State Police Medevac helicopters can get to the trauma center quickly. I sometimes hear their helicopters pass overhead. They have a distinct engine noise. If there is a bad accident on I-95 I can often hear them hoovering above the ballfield waiting to transport the victims. It's incredible to watch them in action.
Maryland is replacing all 10 Medevacs with new 12 million dollar helicopters that can aid pilots in flying in fog and difficult terrain. The new model is a twin engine version so if one engine fails it can still fly. I imagine these new helicopters will be able to get patients to the trauma center even quicker.
The trauma system is state-of-the-art. If you get shot, Maryland is the place to be for treatment.
Robb
(39,665 posts)...I remember him saying how lucky everyone told him he was about where he was treated.
eppur_se_muova
(36,289 posts)it only compounds the tragedy when pilots and EMTs die en route to trying to save a life. Saw it too often.
Zoeisright
(8,339 posts)Thanks for helping me update my ignore list.
99Forever
(14,524 posts)... gots to hide from those pesky facts, eh?
slackmaster
(60,567 posts)Way to go, Robb!
Floyd_Gondolli
(1,277 posts)It's their way. I actually had one tell me that the UK was the country with the violent crime problem, not the US, never mind the fact that we're at 9 per 100,000 (or thereabouts) and they're at 0.25 (or thereabouts)
slackmaster
(60,567 posts)ThoughtCriminal
(14,049 posts)Thank you.
Rex
(65,616 posts)You obviously have nothing to say but are just mad that you cannot refute the facts presented.
Response to Robb (Original post)
99Forever This message was self-deleted by its author.
Recursion
(56,582 posts)I didn't know it was even close, let alone that stabbings were ahead now.
Mojorabbit
(16,020 posts)Eleanors38
(18,318 posts)morningfog
(18,115 posts)SheilaT
(23,156 posts)THAT'S the comforting thought we're all supposed to take from the graph?
s-cubed
(1,385 posts)As lead exposure went up, so did violence. As it went down, so did violence. The curves are offset by 23 years.
http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2013/01/lead-crime-link-gasoline
Now, I have to say that I am not a purist on these issues. I think policing changes have helped, especially micro-targeting hot areas, and relationship building in the community. Chief Cathy Lanier, in DC, has made a real effort to weed out bad cops. Medical care has helped, thanks to the horrific wounds in the Mideast wars. Perhaps our high rate of incarceration has an effect. But the graphs in the article are stunning.
We know lead is a neurotoxin, affecting IQ, impulse control, and causing ADHA. One of the interesting things in the article was that those involved in criminal justice aren't very interested in the findings. After all, they have a vested interest in believing THEY caused the decline.
By the way, there is still a lot of lead exposure, both from old buildings and highly contaminated soil. The problem is not solved: we need to get the rest of the lead out.