Democrats have this in the bag

[Stuckinthebush]

Mark my words (and post) - absent any wild Democratic self-destruction, Obama wins handily in November.

The two possible GOP candidates are Mitt and Newt. I still think the over/under favors Mitt, but Newt could pull it out. If Newt does get the nod we can be rather confident that the Obama campaign and Newt himself will destroy the candidate. He is roundly despised by all Democrats, many independents and a great deal of the GOP establishment. The GOP big boys may rather watch him die on the vine so they can resurrect Jeb for 2016. They don't want to watch Newt walk into the White House. A Newt presidency kills the GOP for years to come and they know it.

Mitt is Mitt. He is wooden and boring and flippy floppy and just plain blah. He can't get the base excited so how can he get independents to vote for him? A bigger problem for Mitt, however, is the undercurrent of anti-Mormon bias in his base. This bias is now openly displayed by evangelicals when discussing Mitt. I submit a post from a college-educated, business owner friend of mine in the South as evidence:

"Only need one reason not to vote for Romney. This Country was founded on Christian Values. When they signed the Constitution they Dated it "Seventeenth Day of September in the Year of our Lord one thousand seven hundred and Eighty seven". Here is good information that shows how Romney is not a Christian and how Mormons are basically a CULT (link to anti-mormon site deleted). I do not want a Cult member running my Country. letting all the little children know it's ok not be a Christian. Our President isn't."

This is not from a "Get a Brain Morans" type of Republican. This is from a large donation giving Republican who in other conversations can sound intelligent. He is the type who will push an evangelical third party candidate on principle alone.

So, Mitt or Newt? Neither of these men have a chance of beating Obama in November.

Mark this post so you can come back and yell at me if I'm wrong.

[still_one]

1. It is because of that attitude why we lost Kennedy's seat. A lot of the Democrats in Congress are

lazy, and have been for some time, as can be seen in various campaigns which we didn't fight for through the years

[Stuckinthebush]

8. I'm not saying that a fight isn't needed

I'm saying that all objective evidence points to a Democratic victory.

I'm ok with saying that while looking at this train wreck of a GOP primary.

[still_one]

12. I didn't mean to imply that. I was making a generic reference. Thanks /nt

[DrDan]

2. heard this before ---- "no way a Democrat can lose to Rand Paul"

[Frances]

3. Somewhere out there is a poll showing

that while Christian evangelicals hate Mormons, they hate Obama more. This poll showed that 11% of Repubs will stay home whether the nominee is Gingrich or Obama.

I think Obama will defeat either Gingrich or Romney, however.

[still_one]

4. I am not so confident. Whoever gets the South wins the election. That is nixon southern strategy

[Stuckinthebush]

10. I think that while it is true they hate Obama

They honestly feel that Mormons are evil and will have a difficult time voting for him on moral principle. Hence the vision of a third party candidate.

[Hugabear]

16. They still think that Obama is really a Kenyan-born Muslim

That might make them swallow their bile and vote for the Mormon, if nothing else than to get rid of the "Kenyan Muslin".

Then if Romney won, in 2016 they'd mount a "true Christian conservative" challenger for Romney.

[Scuba]

5. We'd be fools to be overconfident. A brokered convention could give the R's a white horse....

.... and a natural disaster or other event could change the conversation again.

[onehandle]

6. He'll win, but it won't be by much, and there will be lawsuits. nt

[MarianJack]

7. I believe that President Obama...

...will improve on both hi electoral and popular vote margin.

However, remember President Dewey?

PEACE!

[Javaman]

9. as long as there is electronic voting, nothing is "in the bag". nt

[Stuckinthebush]

11. Indeed this is true

Given a fair election process, however, I believe it is certainly in the bag.

[rdking647]

13. overconfidence is never a good thing

i think Obama will win against whatever clown teh gOP nominates but I wouldnt call it in the bag.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

14. I disagree with you. There are a lot of moderate Republicans and Independents who have

been led to believe that Mitt Romney is "not so bad." The problem is that this field of Republicans are so far to the right that when presented with someone like Mitt Romney, he doesn't look as bad.

I also think that many Americans have been duped by the Republican Party into believing that being wealthy is a badge of honor. Money represents success! The Republicans have done a brilliant job with equating the two. Obama will have to walk a thin line on messaging because Romney has done a good job with this "class warfare" meme. He should, however, abandon this "politics of envy" rhetoric because that only plays well with Republicans.

Romney only has to be concerned with getting through the primaries. Newt Gingrich was no match for Romney last night. he absolutely destroying Gingrich, leaving him looking unprepared, tired, defensive, and weak. Romney's new debate coach did a great job as long as he stays on message. Once Romney veers off message and the talking points, that's when he starts stuttering, lying, and not making much sense.

Because I believe that Romney will beat Newt Gingrich in FL after last night's performance, he has this nomination pretty much wrapped up. Remember that Newt and Rick Santorum missed a few state ballots from here on out. These are important states, too, where they could have won: TN, VA, etc.

However, I do think that Obama can beat any of these Republican stooges. It's just that I fear that American people are easily duped. Because Romney comes across as smooth and calm and looks "pretty," that is appealing to a lot of Americans.

The good news is that Romney still has high negatives, much higher than Obama. The bad news is that the Republican Party doesn't care. They only want Obama defeated and if they have to line up behind someone like Mitt Romney who they hate and have always hated, then so be it. Their hatred for the president runs much deeper.

[Hugabear]

15. "letting all the little children know it's ok not be a Christian" - WTF

Would be very interesting to see Romney get the nomination, if nothing else than to watch these self-serving Christo-fascists squirm. Do they go with the "cultist" or the "secret Muslin"

[donheld]

17. Democrats do NOT have this in the bag.

That's a very foolish statement of yours. We cannot get our hopes that high. We've got Citizens United/KKKarl Rove/Koch Kash. Not to mention rigged machines and new voter laws. Do NOT count your chickens just yet.