So Barring An Unexpected Downturn In The Economy President Obama Is Reelected.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

That's good. The Republican(t)s scare the Hell out of me...

[HopeHoops]

1. But what if he's a secret undercover half-black Republican? Ever think about that?

Nah, me either.

[JDPriestly]

3. So far he has governed like an undercover Republican,

but at least he is the kindest, gentlest of the lot -- unless you are a whistleblower.

[HopeHoops]

4. I consider him to be a nice balance. He's intelligent and rational.

[Owlet]

2. What about an 'expected' downturn?

Lotsa folks seem to think we're headed that way, largely due to Europe's inability to deal with sovereign debt. Expected or unexpected, the sitting President is at risk.

[randome]

6. I don't think so.

Even with a downturn, I think the Republicans have overplayed their obstructionist hands so badly that I think Obama's popularity would still win out.

[customerserviceguy]

5. It's going to take everything we've got

and we've got to take nothing for granted. The economy has shown only marginal improvement lately, we have to get a lot of people on board to see that there's something in it for them to vote this time around, too.

[great white snark]

7. Great reply.

I'm tired of these "cakewalk win" and "no effort needed" suggestions. They are VERY irresponsible IMHO.

It will, as you state, take lots of hard work from lots of people.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. Hard Work Is Necessary But It Doesn't Alter The Fundamental Structure Of The Race

Presidents running for reelection in good or improving economies tend to fare well...

[customerserviceguy]

18. If the economy can be fairly painted

as looking good or improving, we need to make sure that perception favors us all the way down the ballot, as well. It doesn't help us a lot if people decide that Obama is OK, Newt or Mitt are just too scary, and allow Rethuglicans to win at the House or Senate level just because they don't give a damn about who the President has to work with in a second term.

Worse, there are those in non-swing states who know that their vote doesn't matter for President, but they perceive an Obama win, and vote for Repukes to gridlock Congress for him.

[RB TexLa]

9. I don't think a downturn would change it either. People understand the recession is going to last

a lot longer.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. The Recession Ended In 2009

.

[SomethingFishy]

13. That's a pretty bold proclamation...

Care to back that up? I know a great many people out of work who would disagree with you.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. My Girlfriend And I Are Both Out Of Work But That Doesn't Alter The State Of Facts And Evidence

The recession officially ended in June 2009, according to the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research, the official arbiter of such dates.

As many economists had expected, this official end date makes the most recent downturn the longest since World War II. This recent recession, having begun in December 2007, lasted 18 months. Until now the longest postwar recessions were those of 1973-5 and 1981-2, which each lasted 16 months.

The newly-declared end-date to the recession also confirms what many had suspected: The 2007-9 recession was the deepest on record since the Great Depression, at least in terms of job losses.

http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/09/20/the-recession-has-officially-ended/

[DCBob]

15. We have a jobs recession but technically we are not in a real recession based on GDP.

which is the way most economists define a recession. GDP has been in positive territory for over 2 years straight. A technical recession is defined as 2 straight quarters of negative GDP.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

17. The Recovery Is Painfully Slow, Especially If You Are Not Benefiting From It.

But it is a recovery nonetheless.

Let's give President Obama some credit.

[customerserviceguy]

20. If economists were the only ones with the vote

Barack Obama would see a landslide. But it's how voters define the true end (or an approaching one) of a recession that determines the final outcome of an election.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

21. Again, There's Still Lots Of Pain In The Land

But polls indicate people are feeling a little better about the economy and Barack Obama's handling of it.

[customerserviceguy]

22. May that trend continue. n/t

[JI7]

10. you don't think Romney will convince people he can make the country wealthy

the way he himself got wealthy and vote for him ?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. Not A Plurality Or Majority

.

[Donald Ian Rankin]

16. Only if Romney loses to Gingrich.

I think Obama has decent odds against Romney, but it's far from a foregone conclusion.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

19. I Agree But Barring A Downturn He's Still The Favorite Against Any Of Those Clowns

.