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The Italian Perfect Storm
La Stampa:The victory of the populist Beppe Grillo, the comeback of Silvio Berlusconi and the weak performance of the center-left led by Pierluigi Bersani are the pillars of an election result that brings Italy to the edge of ungovernability.
Deceived by surveys unable to take the pulse of the electorate, misled by wrong exit polls and motivated by a strong aversion to the establishment, Italians went to the polls with the intention of revolutionizing of Parliament, defeating financial austerity and sending a strong message of dissent to the European Union. And in all of this they succeeded. The reason is the aggressiveness with which the former comedian Beppe Grillo has courted popular dissatisfaction over Italy’s widespread corruption and poverty, combined with the inability of the center-right and center-left to match his skills in mass communications. His mastery of new media proved better than Bersani or even Berlusconi’s control of old media. Then there is of course Mario Monti, the former premier protagonist of reforms of unquestionable value who in this election has proved unable to reach beyond the modest threshold of 10 percent.
The result is a perfect political storm that generates an unprecedented situation in the history of the Italian Republic. The House goes to the center-left thanks to a tiny difference of 0.4 percent of the votes while in the Senate there are no majorities, particularly now given that Grillo’s “Five Stars Movement” excludes “mess-ups” with anyone. Thus, we are facing three possible scenarios: a government of broad agreement between Bersani and Berlusconi, a minority government led by Bersani or a quick return to the polls. Not surprisingly, Grillo is convinced that in any repeat election his party will only gain in strength. For Giorgio Napolitano, Italy’s head of state, the choice of whom to assign the task of forming a government promises to be one of the most difficult.
Deceived by surveys unable to take the pulse of the electorate, misled by wrong exit polls and motivated by a strong aversion to the establishment, Italians went to the polls with the intention of revolutionizing of Parliament, defeating financial austerity and sending a strong message of dissent to the European Union. And in all of this they succeeded. The reason is the aggressiveness with which the former comedian Beppe Grillo has courted popular dissatisfaction over Italy’s widespread corruption and poverty, combined with the inability of the center-right and center-left to match his skills in mass communications. His mastery of new media proved better than Bersani or even Berlusconi’s control of old media. Then there is of course Mario Monti, the former premier protagonist of reforms of unquestionable value who in this election has proved unable to reach beyond the modest threshold of 10 percent.
The result is a perfect political storm that generates an unprecedented situation in the history of the Italian Republic. The House goes to the center-left thanks to a tiny difference of 0.4 percent of the votes while in the Senate there are no majorities, particularly now given that Grillo’s “Five Stars Movement” excludes “mess-ups” with anyone. Thus, we are facing three possible scenarios: a government of broad agreement between Bersani and Berlusconi, a minority government led by Bersani or a quick return to the polls. Not surprisingly, Grillo is convinced that in any repeat election his party will only gain in strength. For Giorgio Napolitano, Italy’s head of state, the choice of whom to assign the task of forming a government promises to be one of the most difficult.
If Grillo won't form an alliance, I predict new elections within three months.
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