PPP: Brownback numbers in the dumps....But beats us anyway

[Laura PourMeADrink]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/02/brownback-numbers-in-the-dumps.html

Brownback numbers in the dumps

Sam Brownback is one of the most unpopular Governors in the country. Only 37% of Kansas voters approve of him to 52% who disapprove. He meets with near universal disapproval from independents (22/66) and Democrats (14/81), but what really drives his numbers down is that even among Republicans just 55% approve of him to 30% who disapprove. Brownback's signature proposal for phasing out the income tax may be part of what's bringing him down. Just 37% of voters support it with 48% in opposition.

Generally a Governor with Brownback's approval numbers would be trailing for reelection. But Republicans have a more than 20 point party identification advantage in the state, and Democrats don't have a particularly long bench. The one Kansas Democrat who is universally well known- former Governor Kathleen Sebelius- has seen her popularity decline as a result of serving in the Obama administration. 44% of voters in the state see her favorably to 47% with a negative opinion.

We looked at 5 other Democrats besides Sebelius but none of them has more than 32% name recognition- Wichita Mayor Carl Brewer and former Governor Mark Parkinson are both at 32%, Kansas City Mayor Joe Reardon is at 28%, 2010 nominee Tom Holland is at 27%, and Shawnee County DA Chad Taylor is at 20%.

So despite his unpopularity, the Republican lean of the state and the low profile of the Democrats we tested still allows Brownback to lead every potential match up we looked at. He's up 4 points on Brewer at 44/40, 5 on Sebelius at 48/43, 6 on Parkinson at 45/39, 7 on Holland at 45/38, 9 on Reardon at 45/36, and 10 on Taylor at 44/34.

The Democrat leads by at least 17 points with independents in all six of these match ups, but that's still not enough to overcome the strong Republican lean of the state's electorate. Nevertheless Brownback is stuck at the 44-45 mark in all of these match ups except the one against Sebelius so if Democrats nominate a strong candidate and they build up their name recognition they should at least have a shot in this race next year.

[LonePirate]

1. Brewer, as a Dem mayor of a red city, could be formidable

If he could maintain his support in Wichita, he would easily carry the far more blue areas of Topeka, Lawrence and KCK. He would need to focus on heavily Republican and suburban Johnson County in the KC market. He would also need national help (from Sebelius, not Obama) to have a chance. Brewer (who is black) would face a severe backlash from the racist Teabaggers that control and vote lockstep in this state, though. It's a long climb for any Democrat, though.

[MuseRider]

2. And who does our illustrious Democratic party in Kansas have in their line up to run?

NOBODY. NOBODY is destined to be the nominee, just like usual. They will put up a no name, not support him and let it go. They are beyond contempt IMO. It would be the perfect time to do something but have they started working on this? NO.

I am not a Democrat anymore but I live with one part of the year. He is a very hard working member and this was his response to me when I read this to him. He is none too happy either. You can try but when your leadership would rather not rock the boat or be contentious or even do what the fuck they are supposed to do there is little that ever gets done.

You all just lay it out on the Kansas voters but it is the Democratic party that is not doing a thing. I really have a hard time blaming people for voting for Brownback when the only other choice is unknown to them until they enter the booth. Most people would rather vote for someone they know even if they think he is killing the state than vote for someone they have never heard of. Beyond contempt.