Swine flu jab linked to narcolepsy

[The Straight Story]

A swine flu jab which was given to hundreds of thousands of children carried an increased risk of developing the sleep disorder narcolepsy, research has suggested.

Pandemrix, a vaccine used in response to the swine flu pandemic that began in 2009, increased children's risk of narcolepsy - a chronic disorder which causes excessive daytime sleepiness, research suggests. For every 55,000 doses delivered around one child developed the condition, said health experts.

At the height of the pandemic, between October 2009 and March 2010, more than 850,000 English children aged six months to 16 years were given the vaccine.
...

The research, published in the British Medical Journal, examined 75 children aged between four and 18 who were diagnosed with narcolepsy from January 2008 and who attended sleep centres across England. Researchers from the Health Protection Agency (HPA) and Papworth and Addenbrooke's hospitals in Cambridge found that 11 of these had received the vaccine before their symptoms began.

After adjusting for clinical conditions, the authors associated the vaccination with a 14-fold increased risk of narcolepsy. In absolute numbers, this means that one in 52,000 to 57,500 doses are associated with narcolepsy, said the authors. Since 2011, the use of the vaccine in people under the age of 20 across Europe has been restricted following reports of increased cases of the sleep disorder - which is characterised by periods of extreme drowsiness, sudden naps, and paralysis attacks.

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/local-national/uk/swine-flu-jab-linked-to-narcolepsy-29096714.html

[Ian David]

1. Probably not.

Does swine flu shot cause narcolepsy in children? Not enough data.
http://doubtfulnews.com/2013/01/does-swine-flu-shot-cause-narcolepsy-in-children-not-enough-data/

[The Straight Story]

2. Which notes:

It is currently not known what the precise mechanism is for the increase in narcolepsy in the two “signal countries,” Sweden and Finland. Possibilities include immune stimulation from the vaccine itself, increased immune activity from the adjuvant ASO3, immune activation from H1N1 infection, or a combination of these factors, perhaps with some other infection present at the time.

Epidemiologically, at this time it seems that the increase in narcolepsy in Finland and Sweden among children <20 (but not in adults) is a fairly strong signal and has been reasonably confirmed. This does not establish by itself a specific cause and effect, but other factors such as timing and the relative risk of vaccinated vs unvaccinated children make a causal link to the Pandemrix vaccine plausible. The increased risk from the Swedish data is about 1 case of narcolepsy per 27,800 vaccinations.

Which would suggest that there is enough evidence to warrant more research IMHO.

[Ian David]

5. Agreed. But it's not a closed case. n/t

[sofa king]

3. The last paragraph scares me some.

Narcolepsy, which is thought to affect about 20,000 people in the UK, has a genetic component but this has to be triggered by other factors in order for the condition to appear.

So then, it could be that these children were genetically predisposed to narcolepsy, and the vaccine may be one of the "triggers" that expresses the condition.

But it could also be that the vaccine rewrote the genetic code of some of the children, and only those children who ran into some sort of trigger mechanism are the ones showing it... right now.

Here is the paper:

http://www.bmj.com/content/346/bmj.f794

I didn't read it all that well, but it looks to me like the authors declined to speculate how the vaccine increases narcolepsy risk, and instead confine themselves to showing that the risk exists and corroborates previous studies in Scandinavia.

[Confusious]

4. It would take years of genetic therapy

to change your genetic code. EVERY CELL IN YOUR BODY WOULD HAVE TO BE REWRITTEN.

A vaccine jab does not have enough material to do that, and the virus is either weakened or dead, so they can't reproduce. WHICH MEANS THEY CAN'T MAKE MORE.

to have one flu jab do it is conspiracy theory nuttery.

[sofa king]

7. I don't think that's correct.

The medical community routinely minimizes the potential risks because the white lie that vaccines are perfectly safe counterbalances the total disaster which would erupt if enough mistrustful parents kept their kids away from vaccination, which would turn them into little disease incubators, put everyone at risk, and defeat the entire purpose of vaccination.

Vaccines can and do go wrong. My fumbling attempt at an explanation above is better described in that article in Nature. There are risks, both real and imaginary, and a lot of bullshitting from all corners.

I think that the conspiracy theory nuttery is entirely confined to your first two paragraphs, is what I think. Let's see what your bosses say.

[Ian David]

6. Changing their genetic code is the least likely possibility. n/t