A Dying Country: Japan to lose 30% of population over next 50 years,40% of remaining will be 65 yrs+

[stockholmer]

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/world/2012/0131/1224311002007.html

THE JAPANESE government has published stark new evidence that the nation is on the cusp of a demographic crisis, forecasting that its population will shrink by 30 per cent in the next half century. A report released yesterday estimates that by 2060 the number of people in the Asian powerhouse will have fallen from 128 million to about 87 million, and almost 40 per cent of them will be 65 or older.

The report by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research warns that by 2110 the number of Japanese will further plummet to 42.9 million – a third of the current population – “if things remain unchanged”. Japan’s population began falling in 2004 and is ageing faster than any other on the planet. Over 22 per cent of Japanese are already 65 or older and women now have roughly 1.3 children each, well below the population replacement rate.

Experts have warned for years that the inverted population pyramid is a harbinger of economic and social disaster, but the latest prediction by the institute, which is affiliated to Japan’s health and welfare ministry, is one of the most alarming yet. “This is Japan’s biggest problem,” said Florian Coulmas, who heads the Tokyo-based German Institute for Japanese Studies.

“It affects every aspect of the country’s society, economy, culture and polity. Japan is ahead of the rest of the world. That requires adjustments that no other country has had to make in the absence of war, epidemics or famine. But Japanese politics is totally incompetent. The politicians haven’t woken up to the fact that this is a national crisis.”

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[begin_within]

1. Sorry, but why is a decrease in population a "disaster?"

[TheMadMonk]

3. Not the decreasing pop per se. It's the age ratios.

It's the number of retirees and the lack of younger people to support them.

[Bonobo]

10. I always thought the idea that younger people should support the retirement of older people

is pretty stupid.

Why not pay people sufficiently so they can save up and NOT be a burden on the young people when they retire?

I think it was a lie created to justify spending money that didn't exist.

[JDPriestly]

20. Money is only worth what you can buy with it.

Imagine a country in which 40% of the population is over the age of 67 and in which every member of that 40% has saved 20% of the income they earned during their working years.

That society will have lots of money sitting in investment accounts, banks and savings accounts, enough to fund lots of businesses. The elderly should have plenty of money to buy lots of services and products.

But -- who is going to produce the services and products? The young people? The healthy, working age people?

There aren't enough of them. So, the money that the older people have saved will have to compete for the few products and services that the insufficient number of young people can produce. The result may be inflation. There are other possibilities, but inflation is likely to be one of them.

Money is like a flowing river. You own it for the moment that it passes through your life, and then it really isn't yours. The money you have in the bank -- do you really know where it is, what it is doing? Are you sure it will be there when you try to withdraw it? And if you do, what will it be worth?

The answers to all those questions depend on the social reality in which you are living.

We need to reduce our population, but we need children and young people as well as older people. There needs to be a balance. Unfortunately, the baby boomers are a big population bulge. Maybe it will be possible for future generations of older people to stay in the workplace longer. Medical advances and demand for labor may make that possible. That could be the answer for Japan.

[Snake Alchemist]

23. And if people don't save?

Are they thrown to the wolves? Just because you pay people a living wage does not mean you can end social programs.

[Bonobo]

26. Nope. I am just talking about "shoulds" in an ideal way.

People should not be thrown to the wolves but the system in which current social security and retirement is paid for by the younger generations shows its flaws when confronted with a lopsided birth rate as in Japan.

[Snake Alchemist]

28. Can't argue that it doesn't have flaws.

But I can't think of a better system. I would think a stable population would be ideal.

[Bonobo]

29. True, except that lowering the world's population is a good idea.

So how would we do that gracefully?

[Snake Alchemist]

31. Good question.

I guess it all depends on speed. Would have to be a slow gradual decline over many, many decades.

[TheMadMonk]

44. Children of the Corn of course. /nt

[TransitJohn]

2. Sounds like they need a lot of immigration

An H1B-type program would work well. There's a big surplus of labor in India, and other places dying to get to a First World country like Japan.

[MADem]

4. I think they're looking at this shit the wrong way.

Japan is OVERCROWDED. It is UNPLEASANTLY overcrowded. Even with the polite nature of the society, it is not fun to live, perpetually, cheek by jowl with one's neighbors.

The best thing that could happen to Japan is a smaller population. Less strain on services, less strain on resources.

In the short term, they are going to have to figure out a way to continue to provide social services to an aging population (which might mean that the old people are going to have to work longer) but in the long term they will probably be better off.

[Snake Alchemist]

24. When I was in Japan it was none of that.

It was an incredibly beautifyl country and people seemed genuinely happy.

[Bonobo]

27. Not all of Japan is like that by any means.

That is really only a description of a Tokyo and then only in the train stations during rush hour. The poster who wrote that really doesn't know what they are talking about.

[Snake Alchemist]

30. I miss Tokyo a lot.

Even Shinjuku station at rush hour was a lot of fun. A lot more courteous than Penn Station at rush hour.

[Bonobo]

32. When were you here?

Even lots of parts of Tokyo are like small towns.

The part I lived in was a small neighborhood in Shitamachi. You would never know you were in a big city.

[Snake Alchemist]

33. It's been about a year and a half.

I proposed to my wife on Koyasan.

[Bonobo]

35. Nice. Come on back.

Okusan ha nihonjin?

[Snake Alchemist]

37. Wow, I actually understood that.

I did not think my extremely limited Japanese could comprehend that, LOL. No, she's a freckly little thing that traveled internationally for the first time with me to Japan.

[Bonobo]

38. Good job, Snakey! nt

[Snake Alchemist]

40. Oh, and I'll be coming back soon.

Just need to plan a few weeks to get out there. Can't get a decent okonomiyaki in the States.

[Bonobo]

42. Or in Tokyo. LOL. You need to come to Kansai. nt

[MADem]

48. I only lived there for four years, but whatever.

Everyone has different tolerances. I have found, as I age, that I prefer rural life to city.

[MADem]

47. Well, twenty years ago I found Tokyo impossibly crowded. Unreasonably so.

Even the surrounding suburbs were too dense for my liking.

[Snake Alchemist]

52. I'd much rather live densely and more vertical

Than the endless sprawl of places like Atlanta.

[MADem]

55. To each his own. I don't find Atlanta or LA appealing either. nt

[Art_from_Ark]

5. Speaking as one who is living in Japan

This is hyperbole.

As far as politicians ignoring this "national crisis", that's a joke as well. They're bending over backwards trying to encourage married couples to have kids. For example, the government provides "child subsidies" ("jido teate&quot at the rate of 5000 or 10000 yen ($65-130) per month for each child under 12 years of age, and these kids get reduced price medical care (for example, real cheap dental care up to 8 years of age). There's also a generous national income tax deduction of more than $4000 per minor child who's living at home.

[Kablooie]

6. I can't tell if this is good or bad for the Love Hotel business.

Contraception companies might be worried though.

[bhikkhu]

7. Bollocks

...Japan is a fortunate country, to be preserving its forests and natural beauty for the future generations, by the simple means of choosing to have less children.

If only we were a little smarter here about the good that choosing to fit population to resources can bring. "Crisis" means turning point - which is what a good look at the future might have us wishing for, if we were realistic about things.

[Confusious]

12. Is it that, or that they're a first world country

And that's what happens?

Every other first world country has shrinking populations. The only reason the Untied states grows is because of immigration.

[Art_from_Ark]

17. Most first world countries, Japan included, have limited land areas

However, the populations of Australia and Canada, which are ranked 6th and 2nd, respectively, in land area, are growing year-by-year.

[Confusious]

19. what does land area have to do with anything?

Statically, Europe is looking at a shrinking population. It has nothing to do with land area. Australia and Canada allow immigration, and they get quite a bit of it.

besides, Canada is mostly tundra and Australia desert. Having land does not equal good land.

[Art_from_Ark]

34. So how many people do you think the Netherlands can support?

One billion? Two billion? The sky's the limit? After all, geographical size has nothing to do with it, right?

By the way, most of Canada is NOT tundra.

[Confusious]

57. Let's see...

One person says that Japan's population is dropping because they want to preserve natural areas....

I say it's because they're a first world country, and the populations of all the first world countries has been dropping, except for those that have more liberal immigration policies...

You talk about land mass. I would say your post was a non sequitur.

Oh, China and India are equal to and smaller then the United States, land mass wise, and have populations of 1 billion+ each (The United States is 350 million). Russia is the Largest country in the world, but it's population is shrinking. Brazil is larger then India, but has a smaller population. So really, land mass has nothing to do with the shirking population of first world countries.

BTW, I drove through most of Canada. It's tundra.

[Bonobo]

8. We're a dying country?

I thought that overpopulation was a problem?

So isn't Japan doing a good thing?

We conserve a fuckload more energy than the West too.

I speak to you from a 60 degree room heated just with cheap kerosene for a family of 5.

[Art_from_Ark]

9. Speaking of saving energy

Most Japanese air-dry their laundry, rather than use an energy-consuming dryer.

[Bonobo]

11. Yes, probably 100 million at least.

And the dishwashers --where they exist (we don't have one) are also tiny.

We also have only 2 50 cc scooters for my family.

[Confusious]

14. 2 50cc scooters

Works in a country half again as big as Arizona.

Don't get me wrong, I would love to do without my car, which I almost can do, but I also like to compare apples to apples.

[Bonobo]

15. Yeah, I know.

Not blaming you.

America is a country created based on cheap gas and long highways.

Needs to change.

[Confusious]

13. Works in a mild country

Really doesn't work in North Dakota, Alaska, Michigan, Illinois, Oklahoma , etc in the dead of winter.

[Art_from_Ark]

16. In the winter, Japanese often hang their clothes on racks indoors to dry

Even people in the colder climes of Tohoku and Hokkaido (Hokkaido especially is comparable to Michigan).

[FarCenter]

46. Actually, it sort of works

If you hang out clothes on a below freezing day with bright sunshine, they do freeze, but the ice sublimates in the sunshine and the clothes are a lot drier when you bring them back in to finish drying in the house.

[DCKit]

18. At that rate, there won't be anyone left to dig the graves in 100 years. nt

[nanabugg]

21. Just think, 25 years ago the US hated Japan like it hates China now.

Don't people realize that as more and more of these developing nations devolve into capitalistic, corrupt, oligarchies that they soon lose their luster and begin a decline?

[Bonobo]

22. Too many stupid things to reply to.

25 years ago, Japan was a "developing nation"??? OMG.

Japan has devolved into a capitalistic, corrupt oligarchy?

Was it capitalistic 25 years ago? Why yes, in fact it was capitalistic 125 years ago.

How is it corrupt? How is it an oligarchy? If you compare Gini coefficients (you know what that is, right?) then you will see:

United States .316 (bottom of all OECD countries)

Japan .304 (about in the middle)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_income_equality

[MADem]

49. I seem to remember relations between US and Japan being very warm at that time.

There were few if any "anti-base" demonstrations against US installations. The exchange rate was great. The people were very pleasant to Americans as well as other nationalities. I don't get that whole "lose their luster" argument.

[Snake Alchemist]

25. I'm sure if they relaxed immigration restrictions just a bit, Koreans would more than

make up for it.

[Bonobo]

36. They have.

I am emigrating this year.

I will be a Japanese citizen this year and anyone can if they live here for 5 years.

Many, many Chinese and Koreans are doing it.

The Koreans that you hear about without citizenship have chosen not to acquire Japanese citizenship. It isn't that hard.

[Snake Alchemist]

39. I was only joking, Bonobo. :)

My Japanese friends seem to have no love lost with their Korean counterparts. I guess old rivalries and all that.

[Bonobo]

41. Relations between Japanese and Koreans have never been better.

There are still issues, but they are really limited. In general now, younger Japanese love Korean stuff and people and vice versa.

Just stay off the topic of territorial islands and WW2 and they love each other's food, music tv dramas, anime, etc.

[Snake Alchemist]

43. No one is capable of not loving Korean BBQ :). nt

[mainer]

45. Japanese women no longer want to get married and get trapped

Who can blame them, in a society that doesn't allow women to achieve fulfillment once they're married? They'd rather work, travel, and be independent. The answer is to make marriage and parenthood more palatable.

[MADem]

50. Or make single parenthood "stylish."

Yes--a bold proposal, but it's no longer demonized in USA, as it was in the past. No one cares either way anymore.

Some women want the family without, as my down-the-road neighbor calls it, "the extra child" (i.e. the husband).

Yes, she's coming out of a bad relationship, but I could not help but find the remark amusing.

[Snake Alchemist]

51. some men would like the family without

The nagging, dumpy wife. Must be where the disconnect lies.

[MADem]

56. Those guys, I noticed, weren't all that svelte, fit, or stylish themselves!

I'd go out to clubs every now and again with some of those fellahs, who enjoyed that bar-n-drink-pouring bargirl lifestyle, and when I'd meet their wives at official functions, I found the wives to be the "better half" often as not.

In my experience, it seemed to me that a lot of the Japanese wives got the short end of the stick--they worked, some of them, took care of kids, had to do all the housework and laundry. Didn't look like much of a party to me on their end. That was a couple of decades ago; maybe things have changed.

[uponit7771]

54. Prolly the expense of a child makes it harder to have one in Japan as it has done in the US...

...we're only growing because of laxed immigration rules.

[Romulox]

53. Inevitably, a Pyramid structure will collapse. We are just discussing the timeline

for this collapse.

Neither the earth nor Japan can survive geometric population growth into the next century. In particular, Japan lacks any appreciable energy resources,