Ships to sail directly over the north pole by 2050, scientists say

[pampango]

The dramatic reduction in late summer sea ice has already made
it possible for some ships to travel across the north of Russia.

Ships should be able to sail directly over the north pole by the middle of this century, considerably reducing the costs of trade between Europe and China but posing new economic, strategic and environmental challenges for governments, according to scientists. The dramatic reduction in the thickness and extent of late summer sea ice that has taken place in each of the last seven years has already made it possible for some ice-strengthened ships to travel across the north of Russia via the "northern sea route". Last year a total of 46 ships made the trans-Arctic passage, mostly escorted at considerable cost by Russian icebreakers.

But by 2050, say Laurence C. Smith and Scott R. Stephenson at the University of California in the journal PNAS on Monday, ordinary vessels should be able to travel easily along the northern sea route, and moderately ice-strengthened ships should be able to take the shortest possible route between the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, passing over the pole itself. The easiest time would be in September, when annual sea ice cover in the Arctic Ocean is at its lowest extent.

"The emergence of a … corridor directly over the north pole indicates that sea ice will become sufficiently thin such that a critical technical threshold is surpassed, and the shortest great circle route thus becomes feasible, for ships with moderate ice-breaking capability," says the paper.

"The prospect of common open water ships, which comprise the vast majority of the global fleet, entering the Arctic Ocean in late summer, and even its remote central basin by moderately ice-strengthened vessels heightens the urgency for a mandatory International Maritime Organisation regulatory framework to ensure adequate environmental protections, vessel safety standards, and search-and-rescue capability," it adds.


Projected Arctic shipping routes

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2013/mar/04/ships-sail-north-pole-2050

What type of mental gymnastics will it take for corporations to benefit from reduced shipping costs by using newly melted Arctic Sea routes while at the same time professing the climate change is a myth? I am sure they have people working on a 'Fox News-spin' that will explain it."

[Lint Head]

1. If there is any land mass for ships to dock they will.

[cbayer]

3. I am pretty sure there is no land mass, just floating ice.

Unlike Antarctica, where there is significant land mass.

[muriel_volestrangler]

15. They wouldn't need to dock

Straight across the pole, from one side of the Arctic Circle to the other, is about 3,300 miles - about the same as a transatlantic voyage. Add on the distance at either end to get from, say, Japan to the Netherlands, and it's probably about the same as a trans-Pacific voyage.

[Lint Head]

16. Maybe further than that if ice shelfs melt and flood the coasts.

[Politicalboi]

2. So sad

And they have a bright side.

"Considerably reducing the costs of trade between Europe and China but posing new economic, strategic and environmental challenges for governments, according to scientists".

Well at least it things at Walmart will still be cheap in 37 years. Who knows, maybe even cheaper.

You would think having the ice breakers would only make things worse for the ice, I say get them the hell out of there.

[hollysmom]

4. a lot of folks don't care because they will be dead

I am always shocked about how so many family people don't worry about future generations. Yet, single people without kids like me, do.

[abelenkpe]

5. Huh?

I care because it will effect my kids.

[hollysmom]

9. yes, you do, others I know just don't

If you review republican policies, it is like we will only live one more week, the future be damned.

I talk to one person, who is a loving generous person, but never realizes what we do affects the future planet. She just does not grasp the future that way, she proudly is a tea partier.

[pampango]

6. "A society is great when old men (and women) plant trees in whose shade they will never rest."

Some posted this earlier today and your post reminded me of it.

[Kolesar]

8. Yes, that phenomenon bothers me a lot

I think it is because people are biased to think there will never be great change. Having Michigan getting the climate of South Carolina is just something they can't get their minds around.

[Earth_First]

7. This is terrifying. n/t

[lpbk2713]

10. I'm just waiting ...

It's inevitable. The other side will no doubt call this a major plus for the cruise ship business.


Tick ... tick ... tick ...

[apocalypsehow]

11. Global warming denial is such bullshit.

[DreamGypsy]

12. The December 24th issue of the New Yorker had an excellent article...

...about a voyage from Murmansk to China last July by the North Sea Route, through the ice of the Arctic and down the Bering Strait.



The caption on the (other half) of the photo says:

"By the middle of this century, it may be possible to traverse the North Pole in a canoe."

The article was a good read - I highly recommend it.

[FarCenter]

13. Maybe, but you can't extrapolate the last couple decades directly

The minimum extent of Arctic Sea Ice in September has been declining fairly linearly.

But the remaining sea ice is over the Arctic Ocean's abyssal plain, while in September it is open a few hundred miles north of Russia and Siberia. The open area is over the Siberian continental shelf, which likewise extends hundreds of miles north.

It's not clear whether sea ice will disappear as quickly north of Alaska, Canada and Greenland, where the continental shelf is much narrower and the ocean is much deeper.

In a decade or so we will know whether the ice will disappear over the deep water as well.

Note that the March ice extent is quite extensive and there is no possibility that the Arctic Ocean will not be frozen over most of the year.

[derby378]

14. Because it's all about money, money, money

Screw the polar bears. Hang the Gulf Stream. We want our money, and we want it now.

[talkingmime]

17. The map is backward and I don't think the polar bears will like it even if it was correctly oriented

[ananda]

18. Dawg!

That's fast.

[Auntie Bush]

19. I cry for polar bears...which will go extinct.

All those magnificent animals will starve to death.