OR-01: Democrat cruising to special election victory.

[RandySF]

After late, underdog surges in the New York specials last year, Democrats received a mild scare two weeks ago when Rob Cornilles's campaign released a poll showing the Republican within the margin of error, though still behind. But most everything since then points to a snoozer when balloting closes Jan. 31.

-- Yes, the National Republican Congressional Committee went up with a coordinated expenditure for Cornilles soon after the poll, but that was its only involvement in the campaign, and it was limited. The real money came from uncapped independent expenditures, like the $1 million+ the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spent to boost Suzanne Bonamici. The NRCC never indicated a willingness to make that kind of investment.

-- Last week, each campaign released closing TV ads, and it's not hard to see who's ahead based on their messages. Cornilles attacked Bonamici's connections to former Rep. David Wu, a tactic he bypassed earlier. Meanwhile, Cornilles didn't feature in Bonamici's last, purely positive ad.

-- Ballots went out Jan. 13 for the all-mail election, and over 30 percent were returned by this past weekend. Bonamici's campaign said last week that Democrats have a 16-point edge ballot returns, compared to an 11-point registration edge. That gap will drop as rural, GOP-leaning counties tally more ballots, but Democrats may end up over-represented in the final tally, a great sign for Bonamici.

http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2012/01/not-so-special.php

[Dawson Leery]

1. The GOP candidate is quite the hustler.

Bonamici and the DCCC put many resources in this race. The outcome should be good.

[gratuitous]

2. The Republicans didn't seem too interested in this race

Which isn't to say I'm glad to see the seat remain in Democratic hands, but for some reason, the Republicans just sort of went through the motions for Cornilles. The 1st District used to be quite purple, with a pretty even split between Republicans and Democrats, but it's gotten bluer even as more people register as independent or non-affiliated. At this time and for the foreseeable future, it's just not a seat the Republicans think they can win. If Democrats were the snakes that Republicans are in other parts of the country, they'd carve up the 2nd District to dilute the Republican vote, and make all five congressional districts majority Democratic. But they're not.

Suzanne Bonamici will make a fine addition to the Oregon delegation.