Eugene Robinson: This Will Not End Well

[marmar]

from truthdig:



This Will Not End Well

Posted on Jun 17, 2013
By Eugene Robinson


WASHINGTON—In Syria, the Obama administration seems to be stumbling back to the future: An old-fashioned proxy war, complete with the usual shadowy CIA arms-running operation, the traditional plan to prop up ostensible “moderates” whose prospects are doubtful and, of course, the customary shaky grasp of what the fighting is really about.

This will not end well.

It is tragic that more than 90,000 people have been killed in the bloody Syrian conflict, with more than a million displaced. But I have heard no claim that President Obama’s decision to arm the rebels will halt or even slow the carnage. To the contrary, sending more weapons into the fray will likely result in greater death and destruction, at least in the short term.

So this is not promising as a humanitarian intervention. And if the aim is to punish dictator Bashar al-Assad for his apparent use of chemical weapons, surely there are measures—a missile strike on the regime’s military airfields, for example—that would make the point without also making an open-ended commitment.

Why decide now to announce stepped-up direct support for Gen. Salim Idriss and his rebel forces? It is surely not a coincidence that the Syrian military—with the help of Hezbollah, the Lebanese militia backed by Iran—has been pulverizing the rebels in recent weeks and now threatens to recapture Aleppo, the country’s commercial hub. ....................(more)

The complete piece is at: http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/this_will_not_end_well_20130617/?ln

[xchrom]

1. du rec.

[Amonester]

33. wrong place (sorry)

clicked the wrong reply link (wanted to reply to OP)

Apologies

[cali]

2. excellent piece. captures all the troubling aspects of U.S. intervention

[tom_kelly]

3. Hey,

if we're going to end our wars we need another reason to buy more things that blow up from our bomb-builders. No sarcasm.

[NoMoreWarNow]

4. No, it will not. Wars never do. This will just lead to more death and destruction.

and cost the US treasury billions at a time when Americans are going short.

[sulphurdunn]

8. Yes, but where will

those billions of dollars go? Chaos is profitable.

[tex-wyo-dem]

35. +1

Chaos is profitable...the PNAC plan did not die in Iraq...it lives on. follow the money, always.

[bucolic_frolic]

5. No Diplomatic Mission?

President Bush the Elder for example, met with Assad in 1990.

Clinton Global and Carter Peace Initiatives come to mind too.

UN sanctions.

Secretary of State Kerry has real diplomatic gravitas.

Or the Syrian Government is simply incommunicado?

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

11. Kerry has been to Syria.

[karynnj]

26. Not as Secretary of State - he went in 2009 as Senator

At that point, he went with Obama's approval and the goal to get Syria to break ties with Hezbollah and Iran and to make some reforms in Syria. This was before the civil war.

Now, the best possibility is if there is a peace conference which seems pretty doomed - though both Putin and Obama are for it.

[Javaman]

12. I see you are still stuck in the pre-9/11 mentality...

there's no talking allowed anymore.

[KharmaTrain]

20. Pretty Much Incommunicado...

...the U.S. has had poor or just very basic diplomatic relations with Syria. During the Cold War they were a Soviet client state...and why there's still such a strong connection with Russia...they are the Assad's weapons suppliers. In recent years it's become financially dependent on the Saudis and politically aligned with Iran...keeping Hezbollah at arms length. So, to answer your question...there's not much of a diplomatic pipeline with Assad and I would suspect there's even less since this civil war erupted.

As usual, our corporate media loves to interject the U.S. into any and every conflict around the world and then comes the drumbeat for us to "do something". I'm hopeful the only assistance will be arms (which have been flowing into that country) and not any boots or even "no fly zone" action. There's more at stake here for Russia...their last "friend" in the region and why Putin's been doubling down with Assad...

[Canuckistanian]

30. 1990? That must have been Assad the elder

I don't think the present Assad has been in for that long.

[FarCenter]

6. The Middle East is the new Balkans

As the crude oil fields run out around the globe, as populations continue to increase in the Middle East, and as the Middle East becomes more arid an unable to support its population, it will stay the centerpiece of international tensions in the runup to World Wars III in the middle of the 21st Century.

[ReRe]

7. Of course it won't end well.

... It never ends well. And ~190,000 dead already. McCain should never have gone over there and promised the rebels anything. Is this just to keep McKain's promise?

[Warpy]

9. Arming either side would be a mistake

and the smart thing to do would be to let Putin make the mistake by arming Assad. People have incredibly long memories for that sort of thing and long after the revolution has been crushed, the resentment will be there and Russia will find them insufficiently grateful, to say the least.

I'm against arming the rebels because I see Syria becoming yet another Islamic state if they're victorious. I don't think anyone wants to see that, especially the Syrian people.

This is probably Putin's thinking, also, which is why he's supporting Assad.

We need to sit this one out. We're already getting enough resentment all over the world for our export of pepper spray and CS gas that countries are using on any civilian who dares to complain about a corrupt government.

Enough is enough. War isn't good for the economy, it's only good for Republican arms contractors. Time to say no.

[John2]

13. I have a slightly different view,

even though we come to the same conclusion. I don't think President Obama concocted this strategy at all from his own mind. I think others around him encouraged him to continue the regime change Policy in the Middle East, in Israel's government with Netanyahu.

Netyanhu was at it again recently, complain how dangerous it would be for Obama to let Assad stay in Power. The same reasons was done to get rid of Saddam. The real target is Iran and it will not stop with Syria or Assad.

The two things Israel and the Sunni states like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Egypt and Yemen have in common is the threat of Iran. So the Sunnis are keeping their hatred for Israel in the background now, just to take care of Iran. Iran,Syria and Hezbullah realizes that.

That is why it will fail, because Iran is a country of over 80 percent Shia. It is not a country as divided in religion as those other countries, and Iran has near 80 million people. That is what makes Iran more of a regional Power than Saudi Arabia and even Egypt.

Even though you have different shades of politics in Iran, it still all comes under the Shiite religion. They may fight among themselves, but they will unite against any Foreign invader.

There are still Sunnis within Syria that is part of the regime in the civilian Government and the Military. The regime is not all Alawites being portrayed. The Alawites dominate a good percentage but it is still diverse.

The town they retook, is being assessed by the civilian authorities in Syria for AID to rebuild and monetary assistance to families to rebuild their homes, because of the Destruction. The Syrian Government allowed the Red Cross in and the hospitals are being rebuilt. The rebels left IEDs and booby trapped a lot of those buildings to slow down the Syrian Army.

They also captured a lot of foreign fighters, that went to Syria, in the name of Jihad. Many of them were young men and even young boys. There was a Tunisian delegation of mothers and some fathers, went to Syria and apologized to the Syrian Government, trying to get their kids released from Syrian jails. These families said they did not support their sons going to Syria, and they were recruited by Al Nusra, and Foreign Governments. They charged these young men were brain wash.

Why are most of the casualties for the rebels are Foreigners, and so are many of the prisoners in Syrian jails? Has any body ever considered that? Where is the real Free Syrian Army and just how many are there? Just where are they fighting and how many casualties have they suffered since this conflict. It is amazing the Syrian Army has not captured or killed any deserter from their regular Army in over two years? It suggests they are a myth. And how much is this General Idriss being paid if anything by his benefactors?

[russspeakeasy]

18. Thanks for the in depth thinking...Well done.

[Warpy]

21. Those are all very interesting questions that should be answered

before anything goes to Syria. The antigovernment forces are all fractured into a million pieces, some with religious grudges and some with economic/political grudges. Arming the former would be as big a mistake as arming the Afghan mujahideen turned out to be and the opposition is such a mess there is no way to tell.

[WinkyDink]

10. Depends on what the meaning of "well" is. More weapons sales? Well!

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

14. I hear the body bag futures are through the roof this morning!

[NoMoreWarNow]

16. True-- the bankers usually end up well after a war.

And the arms dealers.

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

15. I'm so sick of these old wars. Can't we get a new one? (nt)

[Overseas]

17. K&R.

[mountain grammy]

19. No, it will not end well. Great piece.

[reusrename]

22. the customary shaky grasp on what the fighting's about is the "tell"

it's a racket

[Flying Squirrel]

23. Always worth it to read an entire piece by Eugene Robinson. nt

[treestar]

24. The arguments for and against I would like to hear

I know there were demands here to help the Egyptian and Libyan rebels.

[Doctor_J]

25. More like, "This will not end"

I wish I could make myself believe this is a mistake, but I am pretty sure Obama is just doing what the Big Shots who actually run the country are telling him to do. Just like he's done since the first day of his presidency.

[abelenkpe]

27. More good guys with guns

Naturally gun deaths will decrease.

[tblue]

28. So is Eugene Robinson a racist too?

How dare he!


Not!

[Douglas Carpenter]

29. excellent article that should be read in full

[mick063]

31. The Middle East Quagmire

Growing up, I remember a song from the 60's titled "Eve of Destruction" by Barry McGuire.

There is a line in the song that goes:

"And even the Jordan River has bodies floatin'"

A song for the ages. It has never become obsolete.

All of my life, the Middle East quagmire has drained our treasury and nurtured a regional hatred for the United States by all except those that fly in gold lined, personal Boeing 707's.

Why do we perpetuate this? Will we never learn? As a nation, we simply cannot afford it.


Lyrics:

The eastern world, it is exploding
Violence flarin’, bullets loadin’
You’re old enough to kill, but not for votin’
You don’t believe in war, but what’s that gun you’re totin’
And even the Jordan River has bodies floatin’

But you tell me
Over and over and over again, my friend
Ah, you don’t believe
We’re on the eve
Of destruction.

Don’t you understand what I’m tryin’ to say
Can’t you feel the fears I’m feelin’ today?
If the button is pushed, there’s no runnin’ away
There’ll be no one to save, with the world in a grave
[Take a look around ya boy, it's bound to scare ya boy]

And you tell me
Over and over and over again, my friend
Ah, you don’t believe
We’re on the eve
Of destruction.

Yeah, my blood’s so mad feels like coagulatin’
I’m sitting here just contemplatin’
I can’t twist the truth, it knows no regulation.
Handful of senators don’t pass legislation
And marches alone can’t bring integration
When human respect is disintegratin’
This whole crazy world is just too frustratin’

And you tell me
Over and over and over again, my friend
Ah, you don’t believe
We’re on the eve
Of destruction.

Think of all the hate there is in Red China
Then take a look around to Selma, Alabama
You may leave here for 4 days in space
But when you return, it’s the same old place
The poundin’ of the drums, the pride and disgrace
You can bury your dead, but don’t leave a trace
Hate your next-door neighbor, but don’t forget to say grace
And… tell me over and over and over and over again, my friend
You don’t believe
We’re on the eve
Of destruction
Mm, no no, you don’t believe
We’re on the eve
Of destruction.

[LeftInTX]

37. Get a load of this:

Barry McGuire became a born-again Christian, and as a result renounced the song for many years, refusing to perform it. Though he is now known primarily as a singer of contemporary Christian songs, McGuire has resumed singing "Eve of Destruction" in recent years, often updating the lyrics to refer to such events as the Columbine High School massacre.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eve_of_Destruction_%28song%29

What does being a Christian have to do with this song? It totally baffles me. If wanted to make the song sound more Christian, he could have changed the tone to folk-song so he didn't sound angry. And if he didn't want to offend the Israeli-Christian coalition he could have changed the river to somewhere else.

Geez!!!!!!!!

Maybe instead of born-again Christian, he became a born-again Conservative!!!

[dtom67]

32. of course,

To pay for this war, we can just eliminate Social Security and Medicare....

[Amonester]

34. uh... a missile strike.... (?!?)

methinks poutine would not appreciate...

yeah... right...

[DallasNE]

36. Regrettably, Robinson Has Nailed This One

Hitting the military air fields is one thing I do like, especially if they are timed while Syrian warplanes are in the air and you take away where they can land. And hit them again while the repair crews are working to fix them. It is more modest than a no-fly zone while still being pesky.