U.S. job growth improves, exceeds expectations

[ProSense]

U.S. job growth improves, exceeds expectations

By Steve Benen



Going into this morning, most economists projected job growth from June to be about 155,000 new jobs. With this in mind, the new report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows not only good news, but unexpectedly good news.

The U.S. economy added a better-than-expected 195,000 jobs in June and employment gains for May and April were revised sharply higher, the U.S. government said Friday. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 7.6%, but the size of the labor force increased by 177,000, according to the Labor Department said.

As is usually the case, there was a gap between the two major sectors -- America's private sector added 202,000 jobs last month, while spending cuts caused the public sector shed 7,000 jobs.

Perhaps the most important -- and most heartening -- detail in this new report is the upward revisions for the previous two months. In April, the economy added 199,000 jobs (up from a previous estimate of 149,000), while May revisions point to 195,000 jobs (up from 175,000). Taken together, that's 70,000 previously unreported jobs, on top of the new totals from June.

Given these figures, the three-month stretch -- April through June -- is the best we've seen since early 2012. To be sure, if the economic recovery were more robust, we'd see even stronger numbers, but given where we've been, and the steps taken to undermine growth (sequestration cuts), this is an awfully encouraging jobs report...for the first half of calendar year 2013, the economy has added 1.21 jobs overall, and 1.23 million in the private sector. Not too shabby.

- more -

http://maddowblog.msnbc.com/_news/2013/07/05/19302751-us-job-growth-improves-exceeds-expectations

[Buzz Clik]

1. That year from Jan 09 to Jan 09 was a mess! Obama really screwed the economy!

Oh, wait...

[Dawgs]

2. Unfortunately, exceeding expectations does not equal good. n/t

[arely staircase]

5. better than expected

nt

[Dawgs]

7. Better than expected doesn't equal good. n/t

[arely staircase]

10. it equals better than expected. nt

[Dawgs]

14. Yep. And, nothing to do with the point I was making. n/t

[Cha]

29. "Ok, so growth hasn’t exactly been gangbusters since the recession." but,

15 charts that will restore your faith in the American economy

http://qz.com/100457/15-charts-that-will-restore-your-faith-in-the-american-economy/

and best of all the debbie downers aren't winning.

[arely staircase]

30. it must be odd to loath good news. nt

[Cha]

35. Totally alien to me and smells like a feeble

attempt to make Pres Obama look bad since it's always coming from the same people no matter what the issue. Like clockwork.

[BlancheSplanchnik]

57. !

Well said.

Getting out of hell isn't some kind of reverse bungee jump proposition from the depths to the heights.

You'd think adults would realize that.

[Blue_Roses]

34. of course

[bluestate10]

39. Disappointed? Teabaggers are. Any improvement in economic performance disappoints the

teabagger crowd. I guess firebaggers are no different. The economy is fucking getting better, deal with it.

[kelliekat44]

3. You know, i do believe that if the unemployment dropped to 5% by now the anti-Obama crowd

would complain that the drop was too fast and responsible for high inflation...even if inflation remained flat.

[vdogg]

4. Yup

If it's good then it's not good enough, and if it is good enough then Obama had nothing to do with it...

[bluestate10]

40. I hear the same arguments from the right on blogs. If the improvement is too big, Obama

is cooking the books. If the outlook is cloudy, Obama is an incompetent. Firebaggers don't appear to be any more rational.

[Dawgs]

8. Economy is either good or bad. Claiming it's still not good enough has nothing to do with Obama.

Nice try though.

[pampango]

6. Maddox: ... Given these figures, the three-month stretch -- April through June -- is the best we've

seen since early 2012. To be sure, if the economic recovery were more robust, we'd see even stronger numbers, but given where we've been, and the steps taken to undermine growth (sequestration cuts), this is an awfully encouraging jobs report...for the first half of calendar year 2013, the economy has added 1.21 jobs overall, and 1.23 million in the private sector. Not too shabby.

republicans can't catch an economic break. Their best efforts to drag the economy down only serve to slow down the recovery. They are successful in reducing public employment and hurting those unions but that is the extent of their success.

[JayhawkSD]

9. According to the BLS Household Data report itself,

The number of employed people rose by 160,000, while the number of "part time due to slack work conditions" rose by 352,000. That means that 192,000 full time jobs were lost. Time to turn handsprings.

The Establishment Survey is not used for the official unemployment number, because establishment reporting is less reliable than household survey. Establishments do not always report, in which case it is assumed that their numbers are unchanged, even if it later turns out that they did not report because they were no longer in business. They also do not report on nature of jobs, so of the 195,000 jobs they are reporting, which is probably only 160,000 in actuality, it is unknown how many were part time.

Interestingly, the government has a very easy way to provide employment numbers without any need for all of the estimating and seasonal adjusting that is used for both of these reports, and the conflict that always results from them. They could use the data from tax reporting which is done every payday by employers. They refuse to do so based on "privacy issues," but such reporting would not require private information, merely the actual number of employees for whom wages were being reported.

[pampango]

11. CAP: There was job growth across a variety of industries and wages rose by 10 cents.

Today’s new data show a labor market continuing along a path to recovery. There was job growth across a variety of industries and wages rose by 10 cents. But even as employers add jobs, the share of the U.S. population at work didn’t rise above 58.7 percent, continuing to stay within the same small band it’s been contained in since September 2009. Given this, it’s hard to believe that our work pushing the economy toward full employment is anywhere close to done.

To spur the kind of job creation our nation needs, Congress needs to change course. While the Federal Reserve has taken important steps in support of economic recovery, Congress has been working against them. The sequester—the across-the-board cuts of a total of more than $85 billion that began to be implemented in March of this year—continues to work its way through the economy, dragging us down day by day. While the economy may be strong enough to withstand those kinds of cuts and not fall back into recession, this certainly is not the right path forward to improve our nation’s overall employment situation.

http://www.americanprogress.org/press/statement/2013/07/05/68914/statement-cap-economist-heather-boushey-on-june-jobs-report/

[LWolf]

12. "Recession" has not abandoned my town at all

since the economy collapsed. We aren't going to "fall back into" recession. We're still there.

[bluestate10]

42. Voters must take control and vote republicans out of office. No party in the history of the

nation has been more opposed to seeing the nation prosper and move forward. The republican party must be sent a clear message in the races this November and the midterm races in 2014, it must be punched in the nose and told, in no uncertain term that the bullshit it is playing is done.

[fasttense]

54. What we really need to do is have about 3 million Americans

Show up on the Mall in Washington DC and surround the Capitol and White House and get the attention of all the Politicians. When the natives get restless they pay attention.

[great white snark]

13. K&R

[HardTimes99]

15. The danger of looking at raw numbers only: the bulk of the jobs created

(some 75,000) were in the restaurant and hospitality industry, according to CNBC. So, if you want to be a waiter or hotel maid, times are booming.

U6 (the broader measure of unemployment) actually increased from 13.8 to 14.3%. Woo-hoo!

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/job-growth-posts-large-gain-132912665.html

[Logical]

16. Wow, nice post. Good news for everyone. And shocked you did not mention Snowden. n-t

[Iliyah]

17. But you did - LOL

Thanks for the information which is good news - Prosense

Not out of the recession and with sequester looming where the gop house critters won't do a damn thing except only benefit themselves, Pres O has worked some wonders and it gonna be a continuous fight but I think he's capable for that long battle.

[Kolesar]

48. Har har

And drone strikes...eom

[1-Old-Man]

18. I hate to be a stickler, but how do you add 195,000 jobs but only increas the workforce by 177,000

I don't understand how an article can, in one paragraph, say that 195,000 jobs were added to the workforce but that it only increased by 177,000 and offer no explaination for the apparent conflict.

[bluestate10]

44. You don't seem to have heard of the unemployed rate.

People have been looking for jobs and were unemployed. The 195,000 jobs added means that many of them found work. The 177,000 is what it is, 177,000 more people came into the workforce. The 177,000 could be teens reaching adulthood, college students finished with college and now looking for jobs, parents coming back into the workforce after staying home with children. Try as you may, you can't dampen the numbers, they are good news, period.

[1-Old-Man]

51. "Try as I may to dampen ..." What the fuck are you talking about?

Do you not understand simple questions or the too difficult to grasp?

[Safetykitten]

19. Love the part-time.

As a reminder: jobs have quantity and quality components. The quantity component was good enough to convince the 10 Year the taper is imminent (if not stocks, which continue to trade dislocated from any and all fundamentals). But how about the quality? In a word: not good. In June, the household survey reported that part-time jobs soared by 360,000 to 28,059,000 - an all time record high. Full time jobs? Down 240,000. And looking back at the entire year, so far in 2013, just 130K Full-Time Jobs have been added, offset by a whopping 557K Part-Time jobs. And there is your jobs "quality" leading to today's market euphoria (if only for now).

Zero Hedge

[The Midway Rebel]

20. And more Americans are working for minimum wage than ever.

Nice spin on this one. Some recovery from recession this is.

[winter is coming]

23. Apparently, "expectations" are now capable of winning limbo contests. n/t

[RevStPatrick]

21. Yeah, but how many of these new jobs...

...are these kind of jobs?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10023174216

While this is certainly "good news," there is a dark side to it.

[mick063]

22. I'm sick of the term "job growth".

Last edited Fri Jul 5, 2013, 11:08 PM - Edit history (1)

People eating spoonfuls of shit, part time, for minimum wage is not a job.


Come back to me when we start seeing graphics on wage increases. Last one I saw showed historic decline.

[snappyturtle]

26. Exactly. At most, these jobs may only add to the battery of part time ones. nt

[Jamaal510]

50. It's progress.

Think about it--we've gone from complaining about a net loss of jobs a few years ago to complaining about gaining low-paying jobs. The silver lining is that we are GAINING. The amount of jobs we are gaining would be even higher had Congress went ahead and passed Obama's Jobs Bill in 2011.

[ffr]

24. Hindsight is so sweet

Wrong and wrong again. And yet they still boast they were and are right.

[Cha]

31. Clint Eastwood looks like the most stupid MF ever to utter a word

right there. Too bad about ol' Clint.. he should just stick to his movies and forget babbling at chairs.

Clint wanted mitt romney.. the biggest fake in the damn Universe.

[dtom67]

25. think I'll just wait a 4-6 weeks....

til the numbers are revised....

[Scurrilous]

27. Thanks ProSense.

[galileoreloaded]

28. your post makes me sad :( mostly because it isnt true.

maybe stick to intangibles that require at minimum grade 10 interpretation, and not easily dismissible tertiary metrics. getting better though! yay!!!

[Cha]

32. Calling Steve Benen a liar, are ya?

[galileoreloaded]

33. i guess. long on eloquent prose, short on actionable substance. nt

[Cha]

36. Then you would be ignorant.

[galileoreloaded]

37. eh, i got a lot of problems but ignorance or dumbassery aint any of em .

big kiss!

[Cha]

43. Steve Benen has a stellar reputation and he's not the only one saying this..

I'm taking his word over an anonymous internet poster.

[ProSense]

38. Maybe

"your post makes me sad mostly because it isnt true."

...this will make you feel better:

Employment Report: More Hiring, Wages Up, Still Weak Labor Market

by Bill McBride

The good news: This was the best first half for private employment gains since 1999. Also hourly and weekly wages increased 0.4% in June, and hourly wages are now up 2.2% over the last year (weekly wages are up 2.5% year-over-year).

Some bad news: the employment-population ratio for the 25 to 54 year old group (prime working age) declined, the number of part time workers (for economic reasons) increased and U-6 (an alternative measure of labor underutilization) increased to 14.3%.

Some numbers: Total nonfarm employment is up 2.293 million over the last 12 months, and up 1.211 million so far in 2013 (a 2.42 million annual pace).

Private employment is up 2.357 million over the last year, and up 1.234 million so far in 2013 (a 2.47 million annual pace). The following table shows the first and second half and full year changes in private employment since 1998.

- more -

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/07/employment-report-more-hiring-wages-up.html

...or maybe not!

[galileoreloaded]

41. offset that against dollar destruction and explain why you hate fixed incomes and the seniors on...

them. but you cant. check-mate!

i call your 10% Starbucks raise (what, 70 cents an hour?) for recent PhD's and raise you one lusty Bernanke!!!:

[SwampG8r]

46. this is good news

I read the article and didn't see a link to a list of which sectors (manufacturing,service,etc,) are showing the quickest growth.
I did a quick google and it seems to be elusive tonight. do you have a link to where the growths are occurring?

[totodeinhere]

47. Most of the new jobs are low paying service sector jobs that don't pay a living

wage or have adequate benefits. Plus the number of long term employed has remained constant. This is hardly good news. We need good paying jobs and we are creating way too few of them.

[Puzzledtraveller]

58. I'm a caseworker

I do snap and medicaid. There has not been any significant slow down in applications, people are still suffering and new first time applicants are still on the rise.

[Tuesday Afternoon]

49. trying to get excited about these jobs but, then - there is this to consider

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10023187472

[RedCappedBandit]

52. Are they as good as the jobs that were lost?

[dawg]

53. It's nice to have some good news to celebrate.

[totodeinhere]

56. This news is not that great.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=3193372

[totodeinhere]

55. This news isn't that great.

...the seasonally adjusted length of unemployment - a real indicator of extended human suffering -- is 35.6 weeks, barely down from its high of 40.7 weeks at the worst of the crisis.

Before Wall Street wrecked the economy in 2008 the average duration was 16 to 17 weeks -- less than half of what it remains today.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/rj-eskow/the-forgotten-americans_b_3551414.html

The official unemployment rate doesn't take notice of the long term suffering that many Americans are experiencing. Of course the OP is trying to make the best light of unemployment stats because she always tries to manipulate everything in an attempt to present Obama's record in its best light.