In other news: Things not getting much better and probably never will

[cthulu2016]

Last edited Fri Jul 5, 2013, 07:49 PM - Edit history (1)

The unemployment rate has its uses, as an economic datum. Over a long time-frame the unemployment rate can distinguish between mass unemployment and mass leisure, for instance.

If everyone won the lottery and quit their job the unemployment rate would recognize that no bad thing had happened. Everyone now being rich, they would be non-employed but would not be looking for work. The same goes for voluntary retirement... a demographic bulge of older people retiring could reduce the number of people working a job without raising the unemployment rate.

But in a shorter time frame, and when we know everyone did not win the lottery, the percentage of people working is a more reliable indicator of jobs than the number who tell a pollster that they are looking. (Jobs are objective, being unemployed, versus being independently wealthy, retired, etc.. is subjective)

Again... if wages suddenly doubled the percentage of people working would drop a lot. Many two income households could suddenly get by on one income. Full time workers would choose to become part-time. It all depends on what causes the drop in net employment.

But there is no mystery about what happened 2008-2009 (before Obama, BTW)... the economy collapsed. The drop in people working was not due to 4% of the population winning the lottery, or 4% of the population turning 65 simultaneously, or a huge chunk of women deciding they didn't need to be in the work-force after all.



This is the most noise-free, reliable single measure of US employment—per-capita employment age 25-54, which excludes both college and retirement issues as factors.

And since we know that 4% is not basking on the Riviera. we are able to tell that the improvements in the unemployment rate are due to people accepting a new (and possibly permanent) reality wherein America employs millions and millions and millions fewer people than it used to.

For more along these lines, see Dr. Krugman:

On The Political Economy Of Permanent Stagnation
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/07/05/on-the-political-economy-of-permanent-stagnation/

Moochers, Grifters, and the Beveridge Curve
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/07/01/moochers-grifters-and-the-beveridge-curve/

[Pretzel_Warrior]

1. so.....you are always looking for bad news or spin in Obama economy?

I see who you are now.

[evlbstrd]

2. That isn't spin.

It's reality for me and millions of others.

[dixiegrrrrl]

3. Truth telling is often attacked here...pay it no mind.

That graph info can be found on a lot of economic web sites....a picture of a shattered workforce.
Not a bit of it accidental, either.

[evlbstrd]

4. I know it is.

And I'm sick of it. There's no excuse for willful ignorance.

[cthulu2016]

5. If believing that helps you get through the night, go for it.