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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsWaPo: A GOP nightmare scenario- What if Santorum wins most primaries/polls but Romney's the nominee?
Posted by political scientist Jonathan Bernstein on Greg Sargent's Plum Line blog at Wapo:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/post/a-gop-nightmare-scenario/2012/02/16/gIQAmjy2HR_blog.html
In most GOP caucus states, the voting is not strictly connected to delegate selection. If Santorums voters dont understand the procedures, its very possible he could win the vote and yet pick up only a handful of delegates. Indeed, that may have already happened in caucus states hes won, like Iowa, Colorado, and Minnesota.
-snip-
Because theres such a bewildering mix of delegate selection rules in the Republican process, a smart campaign can focus on the best places to win delegates. But its hard to make good strategic choices when you dont even have a pollster! Well see this on February 28, when Romney will apparently win Arizonas winner-take-all primary even if Santorum does hang on for a Michigan win, where the delegates are apportioned in a complex mix of rules. Its very possible that Romney and Santorum could split the two states, giving Santorum great headlines, while Romney cleans up in delegates.
Its not impossible though its very unlikely that the popularity contest could leave Santorum as the clear, unambiguous winner, while Romney becomes the clear, unambiguous nominee. Imagine Santorum finishing with a five point edge or more in votes even as Romney gets crowned the GOP candidate for president.
If that happens, its hard to see rank-and-file Republicans accepting the outcome as legitimate, even if the Republican partisan press tries hard to sell it. And its even harder to see Romney kicking off the fall campaign successfully if half his party believes he stole the nomination.
BumRushDaShow
(129,661 posts)and laid down with the fleabaggers.
muriel_volestrangler
(101,390 posts)and let them decide on the basis of the number of flown-in 'protestors' in Brooks Brothers' suits from each campaign.
Yavin4
(35,448 posts)then they will give the nomination to Jeb Bush.
DJ13
(23,671 posts)Good.
Its about time those simpletons realized their party no longer represents their interests.
That could lead to a real breakup of the GOP, which might improve our chances in getting more left leaning politicians elected.
rhett o rick
(55,981 posts)Even if most want Santorium, if the party tells them that Romney is their choice, they will fall in line like the good little authoritarian followers they are.
postulater
(5,075 posts)Primaries are just beauty contests and marketing testing.
Old and In the Way
(37,540 posts)It's all show and structured to get everyone behind the candidate. If Mitt is a wounded duck going into the convention with the delegate votes, but not the popular voter mandate...I think this is far worse then going into the convention with a ballot fight because no one has enough delegates to secure a 1st ballot nomination. Brokered conventions haven't occurred in almost 50 years.
If that happens as the OP suggests, I suspect that Santorum is the VP. That would be the only conceivable way that they can possible unite coming out of the convention.
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)But these days they also validate the candidate
NAO
(3,425 posts)They would get a taste of what it's like to win the popular vote and lose the election.
I can't believe I was the first to comment on your post.
Ba-da-ba-ba-baaa, I'm lovin' it.
Historic NY
(37,454 posts)The Christian VS The Mormon.
Arugula Latte
(50,566 posts)nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)but truly want a nightmare scenario? A brokered convention when none of the contestants sow it up and we get somebody like oh Christ Christie...
Now that is truly the real nightmare here folks.
Obamacare
(277 posts)Obama, would squash his fatass into oblivion!!!
Arkana
(24,347 posts)That shit only happens on "The West Wing", and it didn't even happen there.
As much as I hate them and everything they stand for, I would agree with any one of the GOP candidates who got their hackles raised at an attempted hijacking of the convention by Daniels or Christie or (barf) Jeb Bush. None of those guys were vetted. They didn't have to go through the meat grinder that is the primary season--shouldn't primary voters get a crack at them first?
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)No, not for dems by the way. But you think the reactionary wing is well, reactionary right now...
Canuckistanian
(42,290 posts)For me, it's win-win.
Tx4obama
(36,974 posts)I hope the majority of GOPers will vote for Santorum in the primaries
and that Romney gets the nomination at the convention.
Then there will be a bunch of pissed off GOPers that will either stay home on Election Day or go to the polls and 'write-in' someone else in.
And then President Obama will win by a HUGE landslide.
Works for me
regnaD kciN
(26,045 posts)...I have a good laugh!
jimlup
(7,968 posts)joshcryer
(62,277 posts)The delegate process, the caucus / primary divide doesn't really represent the people, as usual.
Primaries should be done like Venezuela. One vote. In every state. On the same day.
It wouldn't hurt to have a centrally designed voting system, unified across the board (ie, everyone votes one way and one way only).
But I'm going on a tangent here. In the end it wouldn't matter, as it didn't matter during the Democratic primaries. It's all about the delegates. Just like the Presidential election is all about the Electoral Votes.
The people be damned.
(Not showing sympathy for Santorum here, mind you.)
jeff47
(26,549 posts)Is that results in cities dominating the political process. You could win the nomination without setting foot outside the Northeast and west coast.
So there's some reasonable complaints that such a system would result in the lower population areas of the country being completely ignored politically. You might say "so what? That's not where the people are.". Yeah, but it creates a lot of problems.
I'm in upstate NY. Back in "the old days", the state senate was based on geography and the state house was based on population. So while NY City did have an enormous influence on the state, the state government still gave some crumbs to upstate. A lawsuit challenged this system based on unequal representation, and won. As a result, both state houses are now based on population.
Upstate NY now receives virtually nothing from the state, because upstate NY votes aren't needed in the statehouse. There's an enormous amount of decline and decay up here, as industry withers away. Large employers are moving to states where they get various incentives, and upstate NY can't offer any because they can't get any through the legislature. Meanwhile, any road that isn't an Interstate or highway is very much in need of repair - this is the snowiest place in the US, so the roads take a beating every winter.
The problem will probably be solved in about 20 years, as everywhere except Buffalo and Syracuse will end up pretty much empty.
Repeating this on a national scale will cause problems. Our current system is nowhere near perfect, but one single primary isn't a good solution. Especially when you're the party that believes government can help people - nothing creates more Republicans than government abandonment.
PhoenixAbove
(166 posts)even if he does manage to win over the convention. I think the repubs have a nightmare on their hands no matter who ends up as their candidate. Hopefully, most the voters will remember all the CRAZY they saw during the primaries.
PhoenixAbove
(166 posts)there is the problem of that Kenyan born socialist in the whitehouse so who knows which way the wingbats will vote.
(P.S. They've got me so crazy just watching their antics that I'm replying to my own posts.)
Arkana
(24,347 posts)and Barack Obama goes on vacation for the three/four months of the GE.
nanabugg
(2,198 posts)I know quite a few Mormons and they are generally pissed about the way the RW-evangelicals have been treating Mitt's beliefs. I don't believe they will vote for a RW-evangelical. I think they will vote for O or sit it out if Mitt is not the nominee. It's going to be interesting. We all know what the RW-fanatics are like as evidenced by their outright lies and distortions about the President. They can be some hateful folks.