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flamingdem

(39,313 posts)
Thu Jul 11, 2013, 02:08 AM Jul 2013

Snowden Post for the Road: Where's Edward? Transiberian Railroad Route etc.

http://www.correntewire.com/wheres_edward_0#more



The Transiberian Railroad takes 6 days. Figure a trawler is as fast as a freighter ship: 22 days.

So, if Snowden left today, we should see him pop up in Ecuador in the first week of August. On the other hand, maybe we've never seen him in the transit zone because he's not there any more. So he could already be on the train or at sea.

From Putin's perspective, it's a lovely solution, even a piece of japery:

1) No pesky arrangements with third-party airspaces.

2) Another thumb in the eye to the dumbshit US spooks and their even dumber Ambassador for the Correa fiasco; Snowden wasn't even on a plane!

3) And perhaps best of all... Snowden caused Putin no little annoyance. So the thought of Snowden crossing the Pacific on a slow boat with no Internet is payback on the grand scale.

Anyhow, it's fun to speculate!

NOTE OK, so Guayaquil, Ecuador not Caracas, Venezuela. At least Snowden gets to the right continent!

UPDATE And from Snowden's perspective, things that don't go up in the sky don't get shot out of the sky.

Trawler Route:

?itok=MvQ3OsFT
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flamingdem

(39,313 posts)
1. The "Long Way" route
Thu Jul 11, 2013, 02:14 AM
Jul 2013

(3) The long way

Also called “the scenic route,” this much-discussed hypothetical flight path would require specially sending a plane along an elaborate Arctic and Atlantic route to avoid any airspace save Russia’s and Venezuela’s. Estimates of the distance involved vary from 6,835 to 6,924 miles.

Pros: Good way to avoid extradition, as it avoids flying over countries that might consider grounding the flight. it would probably be a private flight.

Cons: Expensive, potentially unsafe and a little too made-for-TV. Not many planes can fly that long without refueling: Some point out that a Gulfstream V-series jet could do it, but those planes cost tens of millions of dollars. Companies that do business with the United States or are just worried about their investment might not want to rent them out for an adventure with such high safety and political risks. International air travel is highly regulated; Snowden would also need a flight crew willing to take the norm-flouting route. And most flights avoid spending hours over the open ocean, much less taking paths that might require dipping into reserve fuel, for safety reasons. Finally, if the flight has to divert for any reason, or is slowed down by headwinds, it could well end up in U.S. air space. And even a successful flight would require navigating around several Caribbean islands, some of them territorial possessions of the United States or Britain.



http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2013/07/09/snowdens-five-dubious-options-for-getting-to-venezuela/

Gravitycollapse

(8,155 posts)
2. Or he could simply fly from Moscow to Vladivostok and then to Caracas.
Thu Jul 11, 2013, 02:26 AM
Jul 2013

Even taking a pit stop in Irkutsk.

And avoid these insane scenarios you are offering.

Cha

(297,323 posts)
3. ".. Enraged Obama Admin"..
Thu Jul 11, 2013, 02:31 AM
Jul 2013

"Putin's previous statement of offering asylum to Snowden as long as he stopped leaking was clearly designed to appease an enraged Obama administration. But is he prepared to authorize the smuggling of Snowden to South America in a Russian strategic bomber (or, better yet, a nuclear submarine)? And still there's no guarantee Our Man in Caracas would not be whacked, sooner or later, by a CIA contractor. The ball is now in Russia's court."

I see the Obama Admin as being focused and determined. And, they definitely ain't playin. the shit is real. But, being "enraged" is for losers and doesn't get you anywhere.

"Whacked"? I see no upside in even thinking that. Why make more of a martyr out of Snowden when he's already performed that task on himself?



OT, but your OP made me think of this movie "Transiberian" Good Flick.

http://dvd.netflix.com/Movie/Transsiberian/70084223?fcld=true

flamingdem

(39,313 posts)
4. I just read something on twitter that said
Thu Jul 11, 2013, 02:38 AM
Jul 2013

Eddie's dad is negotiating. That kind of makes sense with the difficulty of the trip and later Maduro's smile as he introduces him to the great Socialist Republic of Venezuela.

So that just may be the reason for the lull. Obama and Putin working out a deal? Ya never know.

Loved those pictures from yesterday of Putin and Obama, so funny!

John Schindler quoting from this:
http://runrun.es/runrunes/75726/runrunes-el-universal-11-07-2013.html

Cha

(297,323 posts)
7. Oh these pics..
Thu Jul 11, 2013, 02:53 AM
Jul 2013
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=3212107

We can well imagine what's going on Behind the Scenes. And, all I can say is Good Luck to the Obama Admin.

So you know Espanol, flamingdem?

flamingdem

(39,313 posts)
11. It would be kind of great
Thu Jul 11, 2013, 01:20 PM
Jul 2013

if Obama talked all the parties into a solution that has Eddie back in the US of A.

With his popularity ratings he'd probably get a light sentence, well maybe.

Si! Hablo espanol so I've been following some of the opinions in the Spanish language press.

I'll probably do a lot more of that if Snowden ends up in Venezuela

MADem

(135,425 posts)
8. Venezuela is a punishment in itself, in a way....
Thu Jul 11, 2013, 02:56 AM
Jul 2013

He'll be looking over his shoulder, and when Maduro gets shoved to the side for incompetence, either by the opposition, or by Chavez's "real friend," his Army buddy Diosdado Cabello, who knows what deals might be made--or rescinded-- to right a struggling economy?

WAPO did a cost-benefit analysis for Eddie:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/07/10/edward-snowden-can-go-to-venezuela-ecuador-or-bolivia-here-we-help-him-decide/


Anywhere he lands is going to have a considerably lower standard of living than his former home in Waipahu, Hawaii. According to the latest Bureau of Economic Analysis figures, Hawaii’s real GDP per capita in 2012 was about $44,442 in 2005 dollars, or $52,245.86 in 2012 dollars. By contrast, in 2012 Venezuela had a GDP per capita of $12,767 in current American dollars, according to the World Bank. Bolivia’s was $2,576 and Nicaragua’s was $1,754.....

What will affect Snowden is the high crime rates of the places he’s considering moving. The United Nations doesn’t have reliable numbers for non-homicide crimes in Venezuela, but the homicide rates in all three countries offering Snowden asylum are far higher than the rate in Hawaii. Venezuela’s is jaw-droppingly high: 45.1 per 100,000 residents. And there’s reason to believe even that number is too low. According to the Venezuela Violence Observatory, the homicide rate in Caracas, the capital city, is above 200 per 100,000 residents. That is, 0.2 percent of Caracas residents being killed each year....


Cha

(297,323 posts)
9. Mahalo, for the analysis from Venezuelian political
Thu Jul 11, 2013, 03:06 AM
Jul 2013

possibilities, MAD.

"Lower standard of living".. yes, but does that include celebrities who could also afford personal body guards from all the fundraising Greenwald and Ass ange will be involved with, in my forecast?

 

randome

(34,845 posts)
14. They won't bother with Snowden once he's out of the public eye.
Thu Jul 11, 2013, 01:29 PM
Jul 2013

As Assange said about informants: "They deserve to die."
[hr][font color="blue"][center]Birds are territorial creatures.
The lyrics to the songbird's melodious trill go something like this:
"Stay out of my territory or I'll PECK YOUR GODDAMNED EYES OUT!"
[/center][/font][hr]

flamingdem

(39,313 posts)
12. Life satisfaction rates highest in Venezuela?
Thu Jul 11, 2013, 01:22 PM
Jul 2013

But the crime rate is astronomic, he'll be a happy camper with 10 locks on the door.

 

randome

(34,845 posts)
17. A happy life but a short one!
Thu Jul 11, 2013, 02:11 PM
Jul 2013

[hr][font color="blue"][center]Birds are territorial creatures.
The lyrics to the songbird's melodious trill go something like this:
"Stay out of my territory or I'll PECK YOUR GODDAMNED EYES OUT!"
[/center][/font][hr]

MADem

(135,425 posts)
5. Back in the "bad old days" when the USSR was still a thing, but you could sorta travel there,
Thu Jul 11, 2013, 02:47 AM
Jul 2013

a bunch of my pals and I wanted to do that trip, just for the experience. We looked into it a bit but never got our shit together.

I thought Ecuador--which has onerous "freedom of the press (not)" laws, had waved him off...? Are they back on again? Is the flower industry in Colombia panting in anticipation?


.....Edward Snowden is going to Latin America! So far, he has three offers, from the socialist leaders of Nicaragua, Bolivia and Venezuela; the similarly-minded regime in Ecuador has ruled out asylum after some initial overtures. Contrary to initial reports, he has not accepted Venezuela’s or any other country’s offer yet. So, assuming it’s physically possible for him to fly to Latin America without flying over countries that won’t have him in their airspace, where should Ed go?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/07/10/edward-snowden-can-go-to-venezuela-ecuador-or-bolivia-here-we-help-him-decide/

flamingdem

(39,313 posts)
6. Check out the post above yours for a link
Thu Jul 11, 2013, 02:50 AM
Jul 2013

Article en espanol with the scuttlebutt on the possible negotiation for Snowden by Snowden's dad.. of course that would save Putin since it's papi doing the requesting not Amerika.

Who knows! Can't see the guy in Venezuela.

Yes any mention of Ecuador probably due to the person not being too up on geography, or the news!

I'd like to travel there, in the summer

flamingdem

(39,313 posts)
13. pero sabrosa para el Kremlin
Thu Jul 11, 2013, 01:24 PM
Jul 2013

"Los servicios de inteligencia y contraespionaje tienen qué preguntar a una persona tan informada. Y no tengo ninguna duda de que así será", dijo un ex miembro de los servicios secretos rusos.

I put that term in google and found this article.

http://www.elmostrador.cl/noticias/mundo/2013/06/27/edward-snowden-una-papa-caliente-pero-sabrosa-para-el-kremlin/

MADem

(135,425 posts)
15. Wth butter AND sour cream, and maybe some chives for good measure, no doubt!
Thu Jul 11, 2013, 01:59 PM
Jul 2013

Look at the date on the article, too--June 27....and if we made this trade, there wouldn't be any trips to Venezuela or anywhere else:

“Es una gran oportunidad. Podremos devolverle la bofetada a Estados Unidos”, declaró hoy a la agencia Interfax el escritor opositor Eduard Limónov, dirigente de la izquierda radical nacionalista.

Limónov se refería a la negativa estadounidense de entregar a Moscú al ciudadano ruso Víctor But, conocido como el “Mercader de la Muerte”, quien cumple una condena de 25 años de prisión en Estados Unidos por vender armas a las Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia.

MADem

(135,425 posts)
16. Here's the easiest way of all to get him to VZ, or at least to Cuba.
Thu Jul 11, 2013, 02:06 PM
Jul 2013

Give him a sailor suit, and stick him on a Russian ship! He'd fit right in....

 

randome

(34,845 posts)
18. I could tell he was a hardcore commie! Just look at those beady little eyes!
Thu Jul 11, 2013, 02:14 PM
Jul 2013

[hr][font color="blue"][center]Birds are territorial creatures.
The lyrics to the songbird's melodious trill go something like this:
"Stay out of my territory or I'll PECK YOUR GODDAMNED EYES OUT!"
[/center][/font][hr]

flamingdem

(39,313 posts)
19. dang they pulled the image!
Thu Jul 11, 2013, 02:25 PM
Jul 2013

but good idea about the Russian sailor suit disguise

In general it seems like hiding on a trawler is his best bet

MADem

(135,425 posts)
20. I still see it...
Thu Jul 11, 2013, 03:04 PM
Jul 2013

But here it is again:



On a Russian vessel, particularly a warship, it's not uncommon for them to call in Havana at all. It's SOP, unremarkable. They'd want him to blend in with the crew, though, so he'd need a new haircut, a shave, maybe a different set of specs or contacts...but he looks Russian enough for the Russians.

And while we might board a trawler on any old halfassed excuse, it's less likely we'd board a warship.

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