Blacks could rock the vote in 2014 — if they vote: By Jonathan Capehart

[onehandle]

There was a line in Dan Balz's terrific analysis of the Republican Party's political dilemma that kind of bugged me. Not because he was wrong, but because he could be easily disproven. All that's needed is for black folks to vote.

Balz argued that the GOP would retain control of the House and could take the Senate thanks to redistricting and the number of seats Democrats have to defend in the upper chamber. But Balz also said this, "Republicans also will enjoy a more favorable electorate in 2014 than they did in 2012, if past patterns prevail. Midterm electorates are older and whiter in composition than the electorates in presidential years." The key phrase is "if past patterns prevail."

During the 2012 presidential election, Republicans certainly thought past patterns would prevail. Specifically, they thought the coalition of minorities and women, many of whom were first-time voters, wouldn’t return to the polls for two reasons. First, there was a strong belief that because those first-time voters didn’t have a tradition of voting, many of them would stay home on Election Day. Second, there was an even stronger belief that President Obama's coalition was so disillusioned by what their guy was unable to achieve that they would be too demoralized to vote. Wrong and wrong, again.

A Census Bureau report released in May showed that the rate of African American voters in the 2012 presidential election surpassed that of whites for the first time in history. "About two in three eligible blacks (66.2 percent) voted in the 2012 presidential election, higher than the 64.1 percent of non-Hispanic whites who did so," the study showed. But the Census revealed another noteworthy nugget about black voters.

Blacks were the only race or ethnic group to show a significant increase between the 2008 and 2012 elections in the likelihood of voting (from 64.7 percent to 66.2 percent). The 2012 increase in voting among blacks continues what has been a long-term trend: since 1996, turnout rates have risen 13 percentage points to the highest levels of any recent presidential election.

http://wapo.st/14gEKc2

[ceonupe]

1. this may be the next

democrat nominees challenge along with youth voters.

[RandiFan1290]

14. Democratic

I know you guys have a hard time with that.

[JRLeft]

2. People should vote anyway but Obama isn't helping the cause with his actions of late.

[geek tragedy]

3. Yeah, that Obama has been just terrible for African-American turnout.

[JustAnotherGen]

4. +1

[bobclark86]

6. Of course he's good for it, and that is why...

We won the 2010 midterms in a landslide.

That said, it's simple: There's no nationwide rock star to motivate the bases (blacks, youth, women, Hispanics). Oh, and the opposition will be motivated because they hate the whole equality thing.

I'm holding no hope for the NY-23rd, a pretty red area (voted for Reagan x2, Bush Sr. x2, Dole, Bush Jr. x2 and Romney in 2012... Obama squeaked out a win in '08, but not by much) with an unknown anti-gun, pro-Obamacare, college town liberal (who I'd love to like, if she ever ventured out of Ithaca) against a two-term almost-but-not-quite-Teabagger.

[geek tragedy]

7. Love the logic--Obama inspires people to vote at record levels when he's on the ballot

so it's his fault when they don't vote when he's not on the ballot.

Midterms are about punishment and anger, not hope and change.

[bobclark86]

15. Try reading next time...

or learning to read, first.

My point, which I pretty much spelled out in crayon, is there isn't ANYBODY to bring out the crowds for us, while the right is using it as a "how can we tie you up with Obama takin' my guns?" moment. I didn't say "Oh, it's Obama's fault," you read into it like you have a persecution complex.

[JRLeft]

8. In case you haven't read my posts I'm black, but I am not happy with a lot things the president has

done lately. He is too pro Wall Street, and far too Neo-Liberal for my liking.

[geek tragedy]

9. What does that have to do with turnout? He was too neoliberal for your liking 10 months ago

and African-American turnout was still very strong.

[JRLeft]

11. I was hoping for a more progressive turn in his second term unforntunately he has gotten more

corporate since the election. I give him credit for Obama care because it has helped a lot of people. But he is moving further to the right on a daily basis. If you noticed i said they should vote anyway.

[JustAnotherGen]

5. If we CAN vote

That's the really key thing here . . . if we CAN vote. Because of WHAT was struck down by the VRA - there really is nothing that can be done to prevent the very last minute changes to voter reg in Republican Lead States that can be legally challenged and overcome in time to allow all to vote.

[noiretextatique]

17. +1000...and let the hand-wringing begin!

the only time black people come up in national discussions about politics is when democrats need our votes. it surprises me that it is happening already. the other thing is: if some other folks would stop voting for republicons...

[JustAnotherGen]

22. Yeah

I did notice that. But they also 'know' that we can't at this juncture go to the Republican Party that in my case at least - my black 'bama paternal grandfather and HIS father pledged their allegiance to. But I'm thinking - there are some shifts underway. If TEA goes off on it's own and a far left party were to arise - I bet that Republican tent would be widened. Until such a time - they only get worried when they need us.

[jwirr]

10. The IF they vote has always been the issue since I first voted for John Kennedy. Minorities: Black,

Latino, women and Native Americans can rule IF we vote.

[whttevrr]

12. I just wish everyone would vote...

Is 58.7% the last turnout number?

57.5%?

gggrrr...

[madville]

13. Midterm turnout still needs work

2010 came in at 40% black voter turnout and 47% white voter turnout. It definitely helped turnout having President Obama on the national ticket in 2008 and 2012. Hopefully things continue trending upward though, I will be curious to see the stats from 2016 depending on who the candidates are and what effect it might possibly have on voter turnout.

[hobbit709]

16. More accurately: If they are ALLOWED to vote.

what all the voter suppression laws are all about. And the SCOTUS decision.

[JustAnotherGen]

21. Thanks hobbit

We need to say it over and over and over again.

[David Krout]

18. Sadly, minorities don't vote much in Congress elections

Traditionally.

[1StrongBlackMan]

19. Thus explaining …

… Second, there was an even stronger belief that President Obama’s coalition was so disillusioned by what their guy was unable to achieve that they would be too demoralized to vote.

… much of the “outrage” and “angst” on display here.

I have, for a while, felt that playing on the DU field presents little risk of grass stain; but beware of “turf-toe” and turf burns. I keep getting the feeling that I stumbled into a Town Hall Meeting, circa 2009.

[1StrongBlackMan]

20. Well …

I plan to do my part in getting out the Black vote (not that it matters much in most of Arizona, except in the likely to be close Barber race in CD-2).

My approach will be two-fold … First, to detail all that President Obama has accomplished, then appeal that Black folks work to protect his legacy. Secondly, point to all that the gop is doing to hurt everyone via obstruction and actively seeking to restrict rights, and appeal to stopping the gop. Lastly, Re-present what President Obama has accomplished; while pointing to the gop’s actions, and say, “If you want more, we have to give President Obama something to work with.”