Lost in Egypt: President Obama has no influence with Egypt’s generals.

[cali]

It’s time the administration admits it—and speaks a language the generals understand.



The bloody crackdown began early Wednesday morning, as Egyptian riot police and plainclothes officers began their assault on the thousands of Muslim Brotherhood members who defied the government’s warnings to end their protests in support of the ousted former president, Mohamed Morsi. Security forces showed no restraint as they stormed the two massive sit-ins: Bulldozers cleared makeshift barriers, while snipers took aim at protesters and plumes of tear gas engulfed the streets. Hospitals were quickly overrun with the dead and wounded, and eyewitness reports described hallways slick with blood and lines of corpses with gunshot wounds to the head, neck, and chest. By the end of the siege, nearly 300 people were reported dead—including women and children. As of this morning, the death toll had climbed to 525, making Wednesday’s crackdown the deadliest day since the former dictator Hosni Mubarak was toppled in February 2011.

It being August, the duty of offering the Obama administration’s first reaction to the Egyptian regime’s brutal attack fell to deputy press secretary Josh Earnest. The White House condemned the violence (as if it were being committed equally by both sides), asked that the military and security forces show restraint (while corpses were being counted), promised to hold the interim government accountable (as if the interim government were anything more than a fig leaf for the military), and suggested that an “inclusive process” would be best (that must not have occurred to the snipers as they reloaded their guns). In other words, it was the same talking points the administration has produced each time Egypt has erupted in a spasm of violence this summer. It is hard to imagine a more feckless response than the Obama administration’s approach to dealing with Egypt’s generals.

<snip>



Since Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Sisi pushed Morsi aside, the administration has contorted itself to describe the events in Egypt as being anything other than the coup it was—at least until the Obama foreign policy team decided it didn’t need to decide one way or the other. The logic was clear: According to U.S. law, calling it a “coup” could force the White House to cut off the $1.5 billion in aid it hands Egypt each year. Like any administration would, Obama’s team wanted to avoid suspending a key part of its relationship with the powers that be in Cairo. The United States may have provided Egypt with more than $40 billion since the Camp David Accords, but this was no time to suspend the payments. Indeed, so the thinking goes, the influence that this money buys Washington may be more vital now than ever.

And that’s a perfectly defensible view—if there was any evidence that the money, relationships, and years of cooperation bought us anything at all. In fact, there is nothing to suggest that Sisi cares one whit about what he hears from Washington, no matter how many times Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel rings him. The administration warned Sisi about ousting Morsi undemocratically; he did it anyway. The White House urged the generals to compromise with Morsi’s supporters; they rounded up and arrested Muslim Brotherhood leaders, leveled trumped-up charges against Morsi, and consistently referred to their political opponents as “terrorists.” Secretary of State John Kerry, against all evidence, claimed that “the military did not take over” and that “they were restoring democracy.” Meanwhile, the military-run regime has repeatedly fired on and killed protesters. The Obama administration may be the only group left that still treats the interim civilian government as if it were anything more than a front for the military. Far from leading Egypt’s democratic transition, Sisi seems more intent on consolidating his control, crushing the Brotherhood, and when asked, thumbing his nose at the United States.


<snip>

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/foreigners/2013/08/egyptian_police_brutally_crackdown_on_mohamed_morsi_s_supporters_obama_administration.html

[dipsydoodle]

1. Incase you missed it

and I only know because it was mentioned on UK TV news today - on Tuesday Egypt appointed 25 new provincial governors 19 of whom were generals.

[cali]

4. thanks, yeah I saw that wonderful development

along with the state of emergency being imposed which means no trials and arrests for... anything. Along with indefinite detentions.

[Scootaloo]

6. And so many DU'ers fawning over this return to democracy

At least none of the names are surprising.

[KittyWampus]

9. total mischaracterization. It's telling how some need to misrepresent other DU'ers views AND

also points to an inability to see shades of gray.

[Scootaloo]

12. Tell me the shades of grey in 500+ civilians dead, slain by the new military "government" of Egypt

Tell me the vagaries, the plusses and minuses that balance out somehow, to the military seizing power, and not just deciding to block elections but also installing itself in governorships through the nation.

If you can do so while maintaining a consistent appearance as a progressive, I'll commend your acting skills and award you a biscuit.

Some things in the world really are "either or." Mass murder and military takeovers are two of them, and it seems a few "progressives" on DU have missed the memo. If it bothers you to have this pointed out, then tough shit, I'm bothered by the huge number of dead people that Egypt's new rulers just created.

[cali]

15. there aren't any shades of gray when a military force

brutally murders hundreds of unarmed men, women and children. Not one reporter who was on the ground, characterizes what happened yesterday as anything but that. Not one.

[cali]

10. I've been surprised- including in this thread.

[KG]

2. no reason not to send them plenty of guns and money...

[The Magistrate]

3. It is Speaking a Language They Understand, Ma'am, And Saying 'Go Ahead'

What is being done is in close alignment with long-standing U.S. policy in the region, and Egypt in particular. We regard the Moslem Brotherhood as a hostile force, and that is an accurate view from any rational assessment of U.s. interests. No doubt the administration would prefer the desired end achieved by quieter means, but the officers on the spot do not seem to think that is possible, and are employing the means they feel necessary to achieve the end desired.

[cali]

8. Actually, it appears your claims are not even close to being accurate. Numerous news reports

attest to the U.S. outreach efforts to al-Sisi being spurned.

Furthermore to state that mass murder of unarmed protesters is "speaking a language they understand", is both baffling and contemptible.

As for your other claim that the officers on the spot not seeming to think that there was an alternative to mass murder, not a single member of the press on the ground there yesterday and no reputable analyst that I've read, agrees with one word of that.

[The Magistrate]

11. No One Speaks Openly in Middle Eastern Diplomacy, Ma'am

The Egyptian army means to break the Moslem Brotherhood. It is a long fight, and has often been a bloody one.

I have no doubt pious noises 'off' have been directed at the generals from our government in public. The generals understand the difference between public protestations and actual desires.

The opinions of press, and of analysts you agree with, do not matter to me at all. The question is not 'what might clear a crowd from a plaza?' but rather 'what will break a political movement with some mass strength?' Whether the calculation of Egypt's generals that state violence in shocking amounts will achieve this is correct or not is certainly open to question, but the desired end, the breaking of a reactionary fundamentalist political bloc, is certainly one desired by the U.S. government, and one which any classic leftist analysis would support.

[cali]

13. The Egyptian military has committed mass murder.

No credible analysts, no reporters on the ground have described this as anything but the slaughter of unarmed men, women and children. It's not a matter of those I agree with, it's the vast preponderance of analysts and all of the reporters who were there.

You can call mass murder "the breaking of a reactionary fundamentalist political bloc", but that simply will not change the facts on the ground. I can only surmise that you haven't read any accounts from what happened yesterday at the two sit-ins or that you prefer euphemisms.

As for your claim that all "classic leftist analysis of this situation" supports your pov, you provide no evidence.

I have posted several threads on what happened yesterday and analysis. Just do a search, if you so desire.

[The Magistrate]

16. That Is How They Aim To Break That Political Bloc, Ma'am

Evidently, they see no other means likely to serve their purpose so well.

[disidoro01]

21. It's chilling

to read your dismissive posts about "this is how they do it folks". Killing children is how our world now changes the political course of countries. MB bad, Military dictatorship good?

[The Magistrate]

22. Military Rule Is a Fact Of Egypt, Sir

As are the political and social aims of the Moslem Brotherhood, and the long-standing hostility between that body and the leadership of Egypt's military. To borrow the Maoist phrase, when the contradictions have been heightened sufficiently, this is what happens. If the generals succeed, they will preside over an accustomed state of quiescence, as they have for half a century and more; if they fail, this is the opening battle of a civil war in Egypt.

[disidoro01]

23. Please clarify

Is this military rule or military dictatorship? It is what it is right? Your disinterest is noted, as you aren't bring anything to the debate, why are you even posting?

[The Magistrate]

24. Distinction Without Difference, Sir

My comment initially was in reply to a statement the U.S. had no influence with Egypt's general;s, and was to the effect that actually, those men were working towards an end identical with U.S. policy. Reply to this displayed high levels of obtuseness and ignorance, which it seemed best to respond to by re-statement of first principles applying to the situation.

[disidoro01]

27. Nonsense

You are impressed with your typing skills. I am not.
You have no proof that the Military in doing this is working off the same policy platform as the US. You have zero facts to support what appears to be your position that the military in killing what is heading towards a thousand people is both the will of the people and the will of the US.

My position is that the US is incompetent in foreign policy and regime change. We push out old school dictators in baseless hope that the new king is better than the old king. We are always proven wrong. We need to cut military aid and call this what it is, a coup. You may not have internalized this fact Magistrate but it is our dollars that are now purchasing the bullets that are killing these people, a percentage of whom are children. To you this is an abstract, isn't it?

[The Magistrate]

29. Nonsense, Sir, Is A Most Apt Title, And Summation, Of Your Reply

You make it abundantly clear you know nothing about the situation, its background, actual forces and policies involved, and stakes each element is playing for. You also make it clear you have no interest in informing yourself about it, that the emotional pull and gut reaction of immediate headlines is your sole concern.

[disidoro01]

30. Excellent

non-answer. I don't agree with you so I "know nothing about the situation, its background, actual forces and policies involved, and stakes each element is playing for."
As an insider, perhaps you could enlighten me? The military is killing hundreds at this point, by now climbing over a thousand and you believe you have a gift of insight as to why this must happen.
I do get riled up when children have there heads taken apart by bullets, especially by US purchased bullets. Your flat affect and lack of insight as well as lack of willingness to look at what is actually happening over there is certainly troubling but I understand that when confronted with an untenable situation, people such as yourself cling even harder to an outmoded belief system (it's always been like that, it'll always be like that). All reason goes out the window and the response is that the other counterpoints and arguments lack merit and show a lack of intellect. It's all you have to debate with, isn't it?

[The Magistrate]

31. Answers You Do Not Like, Sir, Are Still Answers

And we are already deeper into 'Say something once, why say it again?' territory than I will generally bother going....

[disidoro01]

32. lol

right

[The Magistrate]

33. Thanks, Folks. I'll Be Here Till Tuesday. Be Sure And Try The Veal!

[oberliner]

35. How many of those killed were women and children?

Can you provide a link to those figures?

[cali]

37. no, I can't. figures aren't available, just reports that children and women were among the dead.

[oberliner]

39. Fair enough

The photos I've seen online have all been of men (though some were young men - possibly children).

[snooper2]

5. I don't understand why the secularists/pro military Egyptians hate "merica?"

Is it because we supported Morsi as legitimate when he was elected?

You would think the fundie sharia wanting types would be burning the American flag but everything is backasswards there--


Total FUBAR

[NCTraveler]

25. Egyptians have a lot more on their mind than "merica".

I know we like to think we are the center of everyone's universe. News is that we aren't.

[snooper2]

28. I guess they didn't get the message-

VICE-

And watch this starting at 6:00 min in

[n2doc]

7. So long as they buy arms from us, we will support them

Gotta keep the customer satisfied, as they say....

[kelliekat44]

14. He would have had more influence had he called their action a coup and cut off aid immediately. nt

[Igel]

34. I can't agree.

There are times when you think your existence is in danger. You stop caring about non-essentials right then and there.

The Army considers the MB to be the destruction of Egypt. It would lead to a war that the Army doesn't want to fight; it would lead to the loss of much of the Army's power. It would restruction the economy and marginalize the Army.

But most of all the Army probably fears revenge, since it was the axe Mubarak wielded to keep the MB in its place.

Paltry US aid versus fighting for your existence? You pick fighting for your existence. Doesn't matter if that fight is warranted by the facts--percepts are what count in determining the Army's actions.

However, Obama should have done just that. It would serve as a lure once the mayhem is done to possibly entice the Army to be nicer. It would show that we're not hypocritical fools.

Support the rebels and support democracy! (Syria). Support the Army--it's not really a coup, it's a koo!--support democracy! (Egypt) Support the king, support democracy (Bahrain). Support the disorganized mess, support democracy! (Libya).

When your goal is to be on the right side of history instead of uphold a principle, it's hard to be principled--history certainly isn't principled, whatever kind of deterministic or ideological straitjacket we may try to impose on it.

[limpyhobbler]

18. I wonder if the interests of Israel could be helping shape US policy in Egypt.

Or at least the perceived interests of the Israel security-defense establishment, not necessarily the true interests of the Israeli people. I heard they might have some lobbying groups in DC and a pretty close policy coordination with the US.

[cali]

19. of course. no one denies that.

it's longstanding U.S. policy

[msanthrope]

26. Um, yeah. nt

[oberliner]

36. You "heard they might have some lobbying groups" in DC?

Is that for real?

[JI7]

41. israel is one reason we can't cut aid to Egypt

[Downwinder]

20. Not surprising, he didn't have much influence

with Honduran generals either.

Perhaps there is something else in play.

[malaise]

38. Well for the record

Egypt is not an American colony.

[cali]

46. Of course not, but what the heck does that have to do with this? Zip.

I suggest you do some reading: Juan Cole, Dan Murphy, Noah Feldman and Richard Engel are good sources.

[JI7]

40. it's the people in Egypt who are giving permission to their military to do what they are doing

they don't like the muslim brotherhood because the muslim brotherhood refuses to give up their attempts to push their fundie agenda on the people .

[cali]

43. well, that's nice and simplistic. yes, there is support but if you don't grasp

that the MB has millions of supporters as well, you're missing a big piece of the picture. In any case, "permission" or not, what the military did was conduct mass murder against unarmed protesters. There's a reason that ElBaradei quit and that's it.

[JI7]

44. so what do you think should happen ?

[cali]

45. I think it's too late. I agreed with ElBaredei's stance

which was to not let supplies through to the protesters and to not attack them.

[bklyncowgirl]

42. Right now they are getting more money from the Saudis, Kuwaitis and other regional players

Even if the U.S. really opposed the crackdown (I'm not convinced it does, though I'm sure Obama and co. would have preferred things to have been done a little less messily) the Saudis and other repressive, U.S. allied governments around the region are perfectly OK with shooting down large numbers of militants and they are giving the Egyptians more money than we are.

The problem is, in Egypt, as in Syria, there are very few good choices. As for the U.S. Government, stability in the nation which controls the Suez Canal is rather more important than democracy.