My Egyptian neighbors, and their conspiratorial view of this conflict ...

[kwassa]

I got caught in a long and emotional, on their part, discussion of the events of Egypt in their driveway last night. They are friends I know pretty well, but I was astounded by what they believe. For starters, they are pro-Army, anti-Morsi. This was not a surprise .They are also college graduates with high-achieving children.

But now, though they supported Obama in the last two elections, they now seem him as an evil supporter of Morsi, because of the following conspiracy theory (one of several they outlined for me last night). They believe this as absolutely true, and that the mainstream Western media is feeding us nothing but lies, but via the Internet, and friends and family in Egypt on social media that they have the real story.

It truly made me despair of ever seeing anything like a rational solution in Egypt.

http://www.barenakedislam.com/2013/07/13/shocker-from-arabic-media-secret-8-billion-deal-between-obama-and-the-muslim-brotherhood/

This is the conspiracy, and I present it not because I believe in it at all, but to show what some educated Egyptians actually think is going on:

Summary:
• SECRET agreement between the Obama administration and the Muslim Brotherhood (not the Egyptian government) to give 40% of the Sinai and the annexation of that part of Egyptian territory in Gaza. The objective is to facilitate the conclusion of a comprehensive peace agreement between Israel and the Palestinians
• This agreement was signed by Khairat el Shater (number 2 of the Brotherhood) by Morsi and the Supreme Guide FM. (FM stands for Muslim Brotherhood)
• A sum of U.S. $ 8 billion was paid to the FM.
• The document was seized by the army following the deposition of Morsi. This is the army that has leaked the news.
• An investigation is ongoing Morsi and El Shater. An arrest warrant was filed against the Guide to FM and other members of his office.
• FM signatories to the agreement are liable to the death penalty for treason.
• The Obama administration would try to reach an agreement with el Sissi (chairman of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces): recognition of the legitimacy of the “coup” in exchange for his silence about the secret agreement. But el Sissi would be more interested in the conviction of FM and discredit their organization which is Egypt’s main source of danger.
• The Republican members of Congress are seriously looking into the case. If proven, the process of Obama impeachment could be triggered.

The other conspiracies they believe in include that Israel supports Morsi, the Muslim brotherhood supports all the Islamicist factions in rebellions around the Middle East, which are also really supported by Obama. They also believe the Muslim Brotherhood fighters fired on their own people and blamed it on the army, that Morsi was giving Egyptian citizenship to fundamentalists from other countries, that the Brotherhood stuffed the ballot boxes, etc., etc., etc.,. and their basic belief is that Morsi did more damage to Egypt in one year that Mubarek did in 30. They also said the idea that this was a coup was ridiculous, that the Army was reflecting the popular will as shown by the demonstrations of 30 million Egyptians in the streets.

[The Magistrate]

1. Tie Your Enemy To Israel, Ma'am; The Basic Move In The Near East

It does not have to be accurate, or even make sense, to stick and take effect. All evil is identical, and partakes of every other evil thing....

[kwassa]

2. I am a sir, not a ma'am, but that is not the part of the conspiracy I don't get ...

I expect that. Both Israel and the CIA are behind everything wrong in the world, usually.

I just don't understand the Obama-Morsi part. Why Obama?

[COLGATE4]

3. Because he's a Muslin. Everyone knows that. nt

[kwassa]

7. ah, the cloth from which he is made ...

[COLGATE4]

8. Haven't you heard the expression

"made out of whole cloth"? They were obviously referring to Obama.

[snooper2]

4. I posted that same question too, see the OP I started with the VICE videos

Woman in the streets saying Obama is bringing radicals in from Afghanistan to support Morsi-

It's like they are the educated secular class in Egypt, but they are all fucking republicans

[kwassa]

11. I will check out your OP.

[The Magistrate]

5. A Second Common Move, Sir

Is to put difficulties off onto some foreign colonial power. In the fifties or sixties still it would probably have been an English Prime Minister invoked. Polities which have been ruled by foreign powers learn to look outside themselves for the true sources of power, and harm.

[kwassa]

12. We seem to be blamed by both sides in Egypt.

We are the universal enemy. Each side is convinced we are in league with the other side.

Can't win for losing.

[leftynyc]

20. Well, it's easier to blame us and Israel

than dealing with the problems of a brutal military on one side and religious fanatics on the other. It was as predictable as it is tiresome. Nobody wants to admit that perhaps not everyone is ready for a secular democracy.

[kwassa]

30. It seems that the choice is between corrupt secular and repressive religious governance ...

in many Middle East countries. Not much of a choice.

[Igel]

37. Yes, that is usually the choice.

People "think" using their glands and not their brains when it comes to revolutions. They see what they can achieve, not what they can screw up.

Look at any corrupt dictatorship. Now think of all the things that can go wrong and make it worse. Seriously--from no electricity to civil war, cholera to famine. Most of those depend on things *not* working, and it requires a lot of resources to keep things working.

Now thing of all the things that have to go right to make things *better.* Again, a lot of things have to go right, a lot of resources, to make things go better.

Except that expectations are always that the revolution must make things better, quickly--and that any failure has to be blamed on sabotage, traitors, etc. Otherwise the revolutionaries are the next to fall.

Any change has a greater chance of making things worse than better unless things are very well thought out and the "revolution" is well supported by a competent group with nobody there to screw it up. the more changes needed, the greater the chance of multiple serious screw ups.

The American revolution was safe only because the country was so primitive and young, on the one hand, and power was distributed and central authority distant so that most services were provided by local government. Even then the confederation wasn't effective, and it really took the extreme measures under the Civil War to produce a strong federal government.

[kwassa]

40. another thing about the American revolution ...

Democratic institutions were firmly in place, legislatures, councils, etc. except at the very top levels appointed by the British crown, so the citizens of the colonies had long experience of democratic self-governance before the revolution, supported by local institutions.

We didn't start from scratch, and without historical precedent in our culture.

Many of these countries have no history other than autocratic systems of governance, except perhaps on the tribal/clan level. That tribal level still limits democracy, as family loyalty trumps all other loyalties. I think Egypt functions beyond that level, but many Middle-Eastern countries don't.

[oberliner]

15. "Israel and the CIA are behind everything wrong in the world"

You meant this sarcastically right?

[1awake]

18. He/she did say "Usually" though. n/t

[leftynyc]

21. You know very well there

are plenty on this board that think the very same thing. It's easier and comforting for them to believe that.

[oberliner]

23. Right, but couldn't tell in this case if it was serious or sarcastic

That was why I asked.

[kwassa]

24. It was indeed sarcastic.

and I went to high school in Oberlin. Most of my family also went to college there, too.

[oberliner]

26. It was quite an experience

My joke is that I belonged to the far right political organization at Oberlin - the College Democrats.

[kwassa]

28. well, Michelle Malkin went to Oberlin ...

I don't know how she made it through!

The College Democrats would be right-wing for Oberlin.

[oberliner]

29. So did Ed Helms

A rich tapestry indeed.

[kwassa]

31. Edward Everett Horton, John Cazelle, Avery Brooks, Eric Bogosian, Julie Taymor and Lena Dunham ....

and many many others.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Oberlin_College_alumni

[oberliner]

36. We used to add gag names to that list to see how long they'd stay up

Fun times.

[kwassa]

41. sounds like something Edward Everett Horton would do.

Prankster that he was.

[eissa]

6. Let me explain something about my people

Not Egyptian, but I'm middle eastern, and despite all of our differences -- religion, ethnicity, political leanings, etc. -- one thing is universal: complete and total conspiracy theorists. We put everyone else to shame. EVERYTHING under the sun is a conspiracy, and of course all the fault of the US and especially Israel. Coup? The US. Religious fundamentalists? An Israeli plot to damage Islam. Your wife left you? A joint US/Israeli operation. The sun didn't shine today? Obama blocked it.

And yes, it's especially sad when even the educated spew this nonsense.

[kwassa]

9. so THAT is why my wife left me. Conspiracy.

[COLGATE4]

10. Bravo. Best answer ever. nt

[eissa]

16. Thanks. You guys should hear my Syrian in-laws

Hey, I get that I live in the most powerful country in the world right now, but the things they imagine us doing are comical:

See, we have this secret deal with Al-Qaeda to disrupt all the Arab countries, so they will be busy fighting among themselves and will leave Israel alone. AQ takes our money and thinks we support them; that once they topple these regimes we will place them in power. But, ahhhh! They are mistaken, because that's when the US will send in undercover CIA operatives/pay the poor/brainwash people to go back in the streets, thereby ensuring that there is always chaos in the region. All for the benefit of Israel!

[COLGATE4]

17. I worked with Syrians (and Lebanese) for many

years, some of whom I count as long term friends. I never tired of hearing the latest 'conspiracy' theory de jour. Usually involved Israel and the CIA (standard players) but after that, all bets were off. Fascinating.

[MicaelS]

14. Reminds me of The Paranoid Style in American Politics. n/t

[JI7]

39. probably has to do with Lack of Freedom of Speech in those places

i assume the neighbors in the OP grew up in egypt and moved here later.

like the parents of the Tsarnaev brothers and their conspiracy theories. if you consider the places they were raised in the things they say may not be too surprising.

[Pretzel_Warrior]

13. love conspiracy theorists. especially anti-Israel ones.

[KoKo]

19. President Obama just Addressed the last Paragraph of your Post: (He's heard the rumors)

Obama: 'Cooperation cannot continue as usual when civilians are being killed, rights rolled back'

Published on Aug 15, 2013

After security forces attempted to forcibly shut down Pro-Morsi sit-ins, the country erupted into chaotic violence that has left hundreds dead and thousands injured. President Barack Obama addressed press from Martha's Vineyard, Mass.

Let me make one final point. America cannot determine the future of Egypt. That's a task for the Egyptian people. We don't take sides with any particular party or political figure. I know it's tempting inside of Egypt to blame the United States or the West or some other outside actor for what's gone wrong.

We've been blamed by supporters of Morsi; we've been blamed by the other side as if we are supporters of Morsi. That kind of approach will do nothing to help Egyptians achieve the future that they deserve. We want Egypt to succeed. We want a peaceful, democratic, prosperous Egypt. That's our interest. But to achieve that, the Egyptians are going to have to do the work.

We recognize that change takes time and that a process like this is never guaranteed. There are examples in recent history of countries that are transitioned out of a military government towards a democratic government. And it did not always go in a straight line and the process was not always smooth.

There are going to be false starts. There will be difficult days. America's democratic journey took us through some mighty struggles to perfect our union. From Asia to the Americas, we know that democratic transitions are measured not in months or even years but sometimes in generations.

So in the spirit of mutual interest and mutual respect, I want to be clear that America wants to partner in Egyptian people's pursuit of a better future. And we are guided by our national interest in this long-standing relationship. But our partnership must also advance the principles that we believe in and that so many Egyptians have sacrificed for these last several years, no matter what party or faction they belong to.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10023466662

[kwassa]

27. That's a good statement, and I agree with him.

We've been blamed by supporters of Morsi; we've been blamed by the other side as if we are supporters of Morsi. That kind of approach will do nothing to help Egyptians achieve the future that they deserve. We want Egypt to succeed. We want a peaceful, democratic, prosperous Egypt. That's our interest. But to achieve that, the Egyptians are going to have to do the work.

In a nutshell.

[KoKo]

22. Maybe these "Joint Military Exercises" (just canceled) that we do with Egypt

causes some concern there about the extent of our influence. That certainly could lead to people jump to conclusions. If we give support money to the Egyptian Military...we might not always be aware of how exactly that money is used.

And, there are reports that Egypt got a lot of unsecured weaponry when NATO invaded Libya. That would cause some to be suspicious that there was an advantage to those who obtained those weapons.

[kwassa]

25. well, my neighbors are convinced the Muslim Brotherhood has automatic weapons ....

that was another detail from our discussion.

[David__77]

34. You think MB does not have such weapons?

I'm sure they have a lot more than that. If they didn't, they would be far more foolish that I would ever have suspected.

[kwassa]

35. I think they probably do.

and I think they are foolish as well. A bad combination.

[jollyreaper2112]

32. it's not all that crazy of a theory

I'm not familiar enough with the particulars here but I usually judge a conspiracy theory by sheer plausibility before getting into particulars.

1) The US has staged coups.
2) The US has assassinated foreign leaders.
3) The CIA has been integral to planning this hinky shit.
4) The US has a history of preferring dependable strongmen over democratic governments.
5) The US and Israel are joined at the hip. I would go so far as to even compare the relationship to parasitic barnacles that mind control crabs to serve the barnacle's own ends. That's about the best comparison to make for how US foreign policy is twisted to favor Israel to the US' own detriment.

Someone accuses his working stiff neighbor of hiring contract killers, that's a bit off. Someone accuses a mafia boss of the same, that sounds plausible. Doesn't mean he did in a given case but it's not outlandish on the face of it.

Besides, in times of uncertainty an explanation you can believe in is far more important than the piddly matter of whether or not it's actually correct. That's just human nature, basic myth-making. And conspiracy theories along with general rumor-monging are just myth-making in the absence of any real information.

I think it's a pretty sad commentary on the behavior of the US government that the conspiracy isn't laughable on the face of it.

[Igel]

38. Of course.

And the US has shelled Morocco and kept European powers from staging coups and meddling in Central America. And it's staged a lot of surprise attacks on Germany and Japan.

That does not mean I expect it to shell Algiers in the near future or launch a cruise missile at Frankfurt or Kyoto (although hotdogs and natto each provide more than enough justification).

[David__77]

33. "MB supports all the Islamist factions in rebellions around the Middle East" TRUE!

Sadly, it's also true that the Obama administration is abetting the Islamist terrorists in Syria. It's not a secret at all.

There is a real conspiracy in Egypt to destroy the instruments of the state, which of course would leave the country open to the highest bidder. Your friends may be wrong on some specifics, but it sounds like they have at least a few good instincts.