Reluctance to suspend Egyptian aid exposes White House rudderlessness.

[dipsydoodle]

Perhaps the most mystifying thing about the cosmetic US response to Wednesday's massacre in Egypt is the reluctance for the US to use its massive aid leverage over Cairo's generals.

Former diplomats and foreign policy professionals in Washington are often quick to say the situation is more complicated than a simple aid cutoff will allow. But after President Obama responded to one of the bloodiest days in recent Egyptian history by cancelling a scheduled military exercise, even those cautious policy practitioners were stunned by his meekness.

"If I'm an Egyptian general, I take notice and think President Obama is trying to take the least painful step to demonstrate to various constituencies in the US that he means what he says about democracy in Egypt," said Amy Hawthorne, who until recently was an Egypt policy official at the State Department, "but only the least painful step, so we won't take him that seriously."

Obama's cancellation of US participation in the biannual Bright Star training exercise is actually out of step with what Washington typically does when displeased with Egypt, two and a half years after the downfall of longtime dictator and US client Hosni Mubarak. That is: it's a concrete step, as opposed to a rhetorical expression of regret and disappointment. It follows on last month's decision to halt the delivery of four F-16 fighter jets to the Egyptian military.

"The fact that [Obama] has taken an assertive step forward is welcome," said Tarek Radwan, an analyst at the influential Atlantic Council, "it's just simply not enough."

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/aug/15/egyptian-aid-white-house-rudderlessness

[Skidmore]

1. I'm appreciating his cautiousness.

The last thing this nation needs is to be forced into another war right now, particularly a civil war.

[MADem]

2. That's "Keep the peace with Israel" money.

Bottom line? If politics forces USA to withdraw that cash, it will get funneled to Egypt via Saudi Arabia and other Gulf state actors. They won't do without, even if the aid gets 'kited.'

Peace with Israel is a big deal. It takes a lot of other issues off the table.

As for Bright Star, the harsh reality is that the Egyptian military might be a bit busy in the near term, so cancellation likely serves THEM as well as it does us.

[Egnever]

3. Yea cause he probably isnt in direct negotiations with them

[Cali_Democrat]

4. Obama is calm, cool and collected.

He's not making any rash decisions and he's being very cautious.

I applaud him for that. The hair on fire folks who write for the Guardian could learn a thing or two from Obama.

Not everything is as easy as it seems. What we don't need is a President that makes rash decisions without weighing all the consequences. We've seen that story before.

[leveymg]

5. It's one thing to be cautious, another to seem complicit. He errs toward the latter in this case.

The signal to the Junta is clear: carry on.

If Washington is supportive of the neutralization of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, we might as well be openly ruthless about it, rather than appearing impotent again.

This is one of those time that a clear message should be sent that our actions match our words.

[Cali_Democrat]

6. The Middle East is a very volatile area

Cautiousness is what's needed at the moment.

[leveymg]

7. And it's growing more explosive by the day, every day that we continue to shrink others fill,

and that has consequences, too. Unless, that's what we want to happen, of course.

See my revised comment immediately above.

[Skidmore]

8. Either we believe that others can chart their own destinies

or we don't. The people of Egypt had an election and chose a government, grew unhappy with the government they chose, and sought to unseat it and replace it. Our choices for them become irrelevant. Egypt needs to sort this out on their own, as do a number of other nations in the world where we have exercised excessive influence for way to long while pointing fingers and caterwauling about the absence of "democracy." Not everyone will adopt our form of government and we should not seek to insert ourselves when those nations do not make the choices we would desire.