Egypt’s Nightmare Scenario Draws Nearer
However awful Egypt’s political crisis may appear after the bloody government crackdown that left more than 500 protesters dead, the worst may be yet to come. Islamists enraged by the military-led government’s brutal tactics could retaliate on a scale that touches off an even bloodier phase to the struggle, regional experts say.
“I think a cycle of violence is coming,” says the Century Foundation’s Michael Wahid Hanna. “This will likely take the form of insurgent tactics, including possibly suicide bombings and assassinations.”
And that, in turn, would provoke more harsh tactics by the government. “Further violence will push greater repression and authoritarian behavior,” Hanna adds. “De-escalation, let alone democratic transition, is a long way off.” And all in a country already veering toward potential economic collapse and awash in arms.
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That’s why Obama’s diplomatic efforts might be better directed not at Cairo but at its wealthy allies in the region. “I think it’s the Saudis who have the leverage right now,” says Aftandilian, a former State Department Middle East analyst. That means Obama has to convince the Saudis that a crackdown will lead to instability and violence that could inspire radicals who threaten their own kingdom. “The Saudis fear an [Islamist] backlash. If the U.S. is smart, we can play to that fear,” Aftandilian says, by telling the Saudis, “the longer this instability goes on, there could be ramifications for you guys as well.”
And, by extension, for the U.S.
Read more: http://swampland.time.com/2013/08/16/egypts-nightmare-scenario-draws-nearer/#ixzz2c9HPMJGF
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