General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsA few thoughts on the Egyptian generals' point of view.
They've seen the world's tepid response to far more brutal repression of political opposition in Iran and Syria. Not much of a deterrent.
They've seen an elected Islamist regime in Turkey systematically undermine secular democratic institutions, and once it had control of the courts purge the leadership of the military with political show trials reminiscent of Stalin. Not something they were likely to just sit and wait for.
The last straw seems to have been Morsi's call for jihad against Shi'tes. Although directed at Syria, it amounted to a declaration of war against a good portion of the Egyptian people. Some here have compared the Morsi government to Christian Dominionists taking over the U.S., this would be as if they declared holy war against Catholics.
I doubt that the military saw the fortified encampments in Cairo as isolated "peaceful demonstrations", more likely as part of a coordinated front with the guerrilla attacks on army outposts in the Sinai and the ongoing terrorist attacks against Copts throughout the country.
MADem
(135,425 posts)world and regional actors to the events in Egypt.
Fair warning, some here will accuse you of "cheerleading" violence, even though it's clear you're doing no such thing.
No one wants to see mass bloodshed, but no one want to see Copts and Shias beaten in the streets, their homes and places of worship burnt, and some of them killed, either.
The uncomfortable truth is that if you replaced al-Sisi with the reincarnated personage of peacemaker Sadat or Pan Arabist Nasser, you'd get the same reaction--only maybe not quite as restrained (as ironic as that sounds, given the horrific violence thus far).
I hope they get a handle on it quickly.
Dawson Leery
(19,348 posts)Morsi was hellbent on turing Egypt into a hardline theocracy.
customerserviceguy
(25,183 posts)Ultimately, the military has been the beneficiary of three decades of Camp David Accords US money, and they are in effect the most powerful force in Egypt. You're right, they're not going to relinquish it without a fight, and history shows that every fight they've engaged the Muslim Brotherhood in, they've won. I wouldn't expect them to unilaterally surrender at this point.
Igel
(35,282 posts)That's the level of sophistication and fact-checking we're to. We want it to be so, so it is.
There was a hard-line rally against Assad and in favor of the rebels.
Morsi attended. He was urged to call for jihad. He spoke. He ripped into Assad, blasted Hezbollah ... rhetorically, of course, since neither Assad nor Hezbollah were present.
But Morsi didn't call for jihad. He was urged to do so. He had the chance to do so. He would have been received well at the rally. But he didn't call for jihad.
Instead, his presence there was interpreted as implicit support for jihad.
Silence may imply consent, but silence can't imply uttering a call for jihad. Silence doesn't always imply consent. Sometimes silence just signifies discretion, esp. if you're a politician.
But you're right, that's probably how the Egyptian generals saw it. But their perceptions are at odds with reality and provide scant justification.
Turkey saw the military lose power. This was something widely applauded in the West. Erdogan still has a reasonable number of people who think he's an okay guy, even if most of his supporters in the West finally haven't seen the light as just gone quiet in mute embarrassment at having supported him and argued that he was, after all, a democratically elected swell guy.
Not sure that would have happened in Egypt. Egypt is facing Israel, after all. But the Army would have lost much of its autonomy. Don't know if that's a good thing. In Pakistan the Army is even more powerful and is probably the largest industrial conglomerate in the country, to boot.
But it is a low-risk strategy, and the Army had despised the MB for decades. They have their common experiences and shared interpretation of history, back when the MB was militant. The Army doesn't see the MB as likely to change. Considering the response in the last month, I'm convinced it did change a bit. Perhaps not in its ultimate goal, but certainly in its methods. Otherwise it wouldn't have backed down and the blood would be running freely.