Hemlines are plunging, is economy next?

[a kennedy]

By John Carney

If hemlines are reliable predictors of economic or market trends, we may be headed for a slower economy and falling market.

At least since the 1920s, market watchers have debated the merits of "hemline theory," the idea that shorter skirts point toward economic booms and longer ones indicating slumps.

Hemline theory was allegedly launched by George Taylor, an economist at The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. In 1926, he claimed that in booming economic times many women raised their skirts to show off their silk stockings. When times were bad, women lowered their skirts to hide that they couldn't afford stockings.

Now, as this month's New York Fashion Week showed, hemlines are falling again.

"We saw a lot of longer hemlines that fell just below the knee (at Marc Jacobs, Peter Som, BCBG). It was a fairly conservative season, which seems a bit depressing," says Jennifer Wright, editor in chief of TheGloss.com.

Brooke Moreland, of Fashism.com, agrees that the trend is "definitely longer."

"There are a few short skirts making it down the runways, but it is overwhelmingly skirts that are hitting just above the knee and tons of 'midi lenth' which hits right below the knee," Mooreland says.

http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/story/2012-02-26/cnbc-hemline-length-economy/53227022/1

[JoePhilly]

1. And the incidence of rape increases when ice cream sales increase.

[niyad]

2. interesting that you would come up with a line like that

[JoePhilly]

7. Its a fairly powerful example of how correlation does not equal causation.

And statistically speaking, one would not attempt to predict and increase or decrease in one, based on shifts in the other.

The article takes a rather weak correlation, and then tries to use one of the variables to predict the other.

[niyad]

9. amazingly enough, I know all that. the comment was about why you found

it necessary to bring rape into this conversation.

[JoePhilly]

10. Why not?

What I mean is ... since when are statistics about rape a taboo subject?

My PhD is in Experimental Psychology. Importantly, those in my field collect statistics on both positive and negative forms of human behavior. The collection of such statistics are not affirmations, or condemnations, of the behaviors examined.

Sadly, statistics around human behavior are often misused.

The article was about a correlation between a behavioral event (hem lines) and it relationship to economic events (the economy).

The example I used is parallel. A human behavior rape (an illegal behavior) and its relationship to an economic one (ice cream sales).

I did not "bring rape into the discussion" ... I cited a scientific statistical reality.

I will also add this ... many Americans do not understand the difference between correlation and causation. And as a result, they are easily mislead on such things.

I said earlier that the example I used is a "powerful" example ... part of the reason it is powerful is that it stops people cold because they can not easily determine the "causation" path.

As you probably know, the variable that influences the correlation I mention is the weather, particularly warmer weather.

In any case, the point was a statistical point, and not a discussion of rape per se.

[niyad]

11. dress it however you like, the fact that you brought rape into this discussion, and said, "but I was

only talking statistics" tells me quite a bit.

[JoePhilly]

14. Really?? ... and would you care to share what it "tells" you ... I'm fascinated to learn what

you think it tells you.

Please, enlighten me.

[WingDinger]

3. Does how high you cinch the straps holding up your barrel count?

[GreenPartyVoter]

5. *snarf*

[GreenPartyVoter]

4. That seems backwards to me. Nowadays you would think skirts would get shorter during

harder times, so as to save money on material.

[snappyturtle]

6. I think you're right!

I think in lean times we see skimpy clothing and in more
abundant periods, wider ties and lapels, longer and fuller
skirt and dress cuts (and better construction).

[mick063]

8. What is your sign?

I'm a Leo.

[Ebadlun]

12. Given that bare legs are quite acceptable now

and nobody wears silk stockings, doesn't this bugger the premise of the theory?

[cyberpj]

13. So what has to happen before we see the end of the droopy pants and hoodies 'fashion' ?

Just askin'.