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The BIG Picture re: Syria – BRICS vs NATO
The biggest Realpolitik story on the planet at this time, and probably for some time to come, is this:
The Economic Decline of the West (especially the USA) and the continued economic rise of the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) nations (especially China).
Militarily, however, the West (represented by NATO) is still ahead by a wide margin. That said, the economic decline of the West will, over time, change this. Every year that goes by without a World War, NATO will be a bit weaker and the BRICS will be a bit stronger.
In the past, the West was able use its military advantages to prop up its currencies (for example, OPECs insistence that oil be traded in dollars), and to garner economic advantages though the World Bank and the IMF. These things have been so profitable that reinvestment in advanced manufacturing capabilities have been strangled, one of the chief reasons for the economic decline of the West.
This is changing. China is now able to simply come behind our military adventures and buy up the spoils with its bigger checkbook. Africa, Venezuela, Iraq, Ecuador… the list is growing. Take Iraq:
The United States fought the war in Iraq, but China got the spoils—oil that is.
After the George W. Bush administration launched the 2003 invasion, officials promised that access to Iraq’s oil supplies would result in the war paying for itself.
That hasn’t happened, in large part because most of the Iraqi petroleum is flowing east—to China.
Almost half of the country’s oil supply is bought by Chinese companies, which intend to purchase even more in the near future. They currently have their eyes on one of Iraq’s largest oil fields, which is owned by Exxon Mobil.
“We lost out. The Chinese had nothing to do with the war, but from an economic standpoint they are benefiting from it,” former Pentagon official Michael Makovsky, who worked on Iraqi oil policy during the Bush administration, told The New York Times.
http://www.allgov.com/news/us-and-the-world/promised-spoils-of-us-war-in-iraqits-oilgo-to-china-130605?news=850214
After the George W. Bush administration launched the 2003 invasion, officials promised that access to Iraq’s oil supplies would result in the war paying for itself.
That hasn’t happened, in large part because most of the Iraqi petroleum is flowing east—to China.
Almost half of the country’s oil supply is bought by Chinese companies, which intend to purchase even more in the near future. They currently have their eyes on one of Iraq’s largest oil fields, which is owned by Exxon Mobil.
“We lost out. The Chinese had nothing to do with the war, but from an economic standpoint they are benefiting from it,” former Pentagon official Michael Makovsky, who worked on Iraqi oil policy during the Bush administration, told The New York Times.
http://www.allgov.com/news/us-and-the-world/promised-spoils-of-us-war-in-iraqits-oilgo-to-china-130605?news=850214
The current “muscle” of the BRICS nations largely resides in Russia. Russia has announced that it intends to increase its Mediterranean fleet:
Russia to create Mediterranean fleet to protect Syria
During the Cold War, the Mediterranean was the most important area of strategic struggle between the West and the USSR. Many years have passed, a lot has happened, but the importance of the Mediterranean Sea has remained the same. Russia, a successor of the USSR, has lost some of its influence in the region over the years. It appears, though, that the country is not going to sit on its hands watching others taking its place under the Mediterranean sun.
Russian President Vladimir Putin, speaking in front of the military, announced plans to restore the permanent presence of the Russian Federation Fleet in the Mediterranean. Putin believes that such a move is not an act of "saber rattling." The president said that Russia had its own interests in the Mediterranean that are related to the national security of the country. The region is strategically important to Russia, and the country plans to deploy its warships in the Mediterranean Sea on a permanent basis.
According to the press service of the Defense Ministry of Russia, the Russian naval task force in the Mediterranean will include about ten ships of various classes of the North, Baltic and Black Sea fleets on a rotational basis. Depending on tasks, the number of warships in the compound can be increased.
….
http://english.pravda.ru/russia/politics/12-06-2013/124816-russia_mediterranean_fleet-0/
During the Cold War, the Mediterranean was the most important area of strategic struggle between the West and the USSR. Many years have passed, a lot has happened, but the importance of the Mediterranean Sea has remained the same. Russia, a successor of the USSR, has lost some of its influence in the region over the years. It appears, though, that the country is not going to sit on its hands watching others taking its place under the Mediterranean sun.
Russian President Vladimir Putin, speaking in front of the military, announced plans to restore the permanent presence of the Russian Federation Fleet in the Mediterranean. Putin believes that such a move is not an act of "saber rattling." The president said that Russia had its own interests in the Mediterranean that are related to the national security of the country. The region is strategically important to Russia, and the country plans to deploy its warships in the Mediterranean Sea on a permanent basis.
According to the press service of the Defense Ministry of Russia, the Russian naval task force in the Mediterranean will include about ten ships of various classes of the North, Baltic and Black Sea fleets on a rotational basis. Depending on tasks, the number of warships in the compound can be increased.
….
http://english.pravda.ru/russia/politics/12-06-2013/124816-russia_mediterranean_fleet-0/
Now, as I said earlier, time is on the side of the BRICS. I don’t think Russia would like to see a confrontation now. And this may be part of the Syrian urgency exhibited by Britain, France and some elements in the US. Deny Russia it’s only Mediterranean port now while the military advantage is clearly on NATO’s side.
It’s a very dangerous game:
Possible naval showdown: U.S. 6th Fleet vs. Russian Mediterranean Task Force
With the possibility of chemical weapons being used in the ongoing Syrian Civil War, the Obama Administration has upped the ante by ordering a fourth ballistic missile armed warship into the Eastern Mediterranean area, as reported by both the news portal IsraelHayom.com and the Associated Press via ABC News on Aug. 25, 2013.
The USS Mahan has joined her sister ships, the USS Gravely, the USS Barry and the USS Rampage, in the waters off Syria if Barack Obama orders a cruise missile strike against presumably the forces of Syrian President Bashar Hafez al-Assad due to accusations by Hezbollah, Muslim Brotherhood and al-Qaeda-allied rebels against Assad of allegedly using chemical weapons against 1,000 Syrian civilians.
For his part, Assad denies the accusations and blames the rebel forces of fabricating the claim in hopes of garnering Western military support.
To date, there has been no independent or objective verification if any chemical attack by either side has been launched and/or civilians have been killed or wounded.
http://www.examiner.com/article/possible-naval-showdown-u-s-6th-fleet-vs-russian-mediterranean-task-force
With the possibility of chemical weapons being used in the ongoing Syrian Civil War, the Obama Administration has upped the ante by ordering a fourth ballistic missile armed warship into the Eastern Mediterranean area, as reported by both the news portal IsraelHayom.com and the Associated Press via ABC News on Aug. 25, 2013.
The USS Mahan has joined her sister ships, the USS Gravely, the USS Barry and the USS Rampage, in the waters off Syria if Barack Obama orders a cruise missile strike against presumably the forces of Syrian President Bashar Hafez al-Assad due to accusations by Hezbollah, Muslim Brotherhood and al-Qaeda-allied rebels against Assad of allegedly using chemical weapons against 1,000 Syrian civilians.
For his part, Assad denies the accusations and blames the rebel forces of fabricating the claim in hopes of garnering Western military support.
To date, there has been no independent or objective verification if any chemical attack by either side has been launched and/or civilians have been killed or wounded.
http://www.examiner.com/article/possible-naval-showdown-u-s-6th-fleet-vs-russian-mediterranean-task-force
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