Punitive Syria Military Strike Is No Game-Changer in Assad’s War
By Alaa Shahine - Aug 26, 2013
Anything short of a “sustained” military campaign against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad for his alleged use of chemical weapons probably wouldn’t tip the balance in favor of rebels, according to research firm IHS.
“An intervention on a small scale would be a punitive measure, intended to show that there is a price to be paid for using chemical weapons,” Firas Abi Ali, Middle East analyst at IHS in London, said today. “It would mean his military capability would become weaker but would not improve the ability of the insurgents to take urban areas and hold them.”
A lengthy military operation, though, would hand an advantage to Islamist militants fighting Assad, an objective Western powers would be reluctant to seek, Abi Ali said.
Pressure is mounting on U.S. President Barack Obama to intervene in the Syrian conflict after some Syrian opposition groups said 1,300 people were killed in an Aug. 21 chemical attack in the Damascus suburb of Ghouta. U.K. Foreign Secretary William Hague said his country, the U.S. and France were in agreement on the need to respond and didn’t rule out action without United Nations approval.
The prospect of possible Western military action helped to raise oil prices close to a four-day high.
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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-26/punitive-syria-military-strike-is-no-game-changer-in-assad-s-war.html