A quick and dirty examination of options regarding Syria

[derby378]

[leveymg]

1. Is either route really rational?

Here's the third path not displayed: don't set up a situation of sectarian civil war in an ethnically divided nation surrounded by other similar tinder-box countries and pretend that "there's no way we could have foreseen" regional religious war breaking out.

Think of structural continuities, as well as functional differences, in US foreign policy paths. Thanks for the nice flowchart!

[derby378]

2. When Bush 43 invaded Iraq, I remember predictions that the entire Middle East could be destabilized

George W. Bush is a warmonger and an asshole, but it would still be unfair to blame him for everything that happened in the Middle East since March 2003. But it's also not unfair to regard our military presence as a destabilizing agent.

You have a good point - I too have grown tired of "we couldn't have foreseen this" arguments a lot time ago. We rely on them to think about the unthinkable and respond in kind.

Thanks for the feedback!

[leveymg]

3. The region is far differerent (and less stable) than it was a decade ago.

People are generally paid to preserve othodoxies, not to provide accurate warnings of catastrophes.

Good chart - captures the prevailing duality either-or view of events really nicely!

[krispos42]

4. Arrows would be helpful

And I personally would like the acronym "CARB" (chemical, atomic, radiological, biological; make them words when you can!)


But, yeah, you've probably got it nailed.



Now the issue becomes "what is the reality of the fresh intelligence, and what will be the narration of the fresh intelligence to the American people"?

[derby378]

5. This is what we call "derby being a n00b"

I couldn't figure out how to generate arrows, so I tried to lay it out logically and not shy away from the "Yes/No" diamonds. But thanks for the comments!

[krispos42]

6. What did you use, Office? n/t

[derby378]

7. I used an online program called draw.io

Here 'tis: https://www.draw.io/