Why would Putin want to make a deal?

[gulliver]

I have my guess. He didn't want to keep a bunch of chips on a bet that there would be no more "illogical" chemical weapons attacks.

But I wonder what other people think might be the reason.

[fadedrose]

1. Can't remember who saod, but Putin fears

the Chechnians getting hold of them, and some other nonhappy campers under Russia's umbrella.

[JoePhilly]

2. Because Obama wasn't bluffing.

Neither leader wants Syria to spiral out of control.

And neither wants chemical weapons floating around.

Russia wasn't going to let the UN dictate terms. And Obama wasn't going to stand idle.

A deal was win win.

Expect for the perpetually disgruntled.

[Little Star]

3. +1

[Posteritatis]

13. Yep. (nt)

[VanillaRhapsody]

4. Because Russia supplies EU with most of their oil. A near monopoly on it.

there is a plan to build a natural gas pipeline through Syria to supply EU (who are keen on alternative energy btw) with it. Assad is keeping that pipeline from happening. Putin wants Assad to stay in power...

[Avalux]

5. Possibly Russia's relationship with Syria - Putin needs to keep it intact.

Russia has its only military base outside of Russia in Syria, which allows them to maintain a presence in the middle east. If Assad is overthrown, the country devolves further into violence and Al Qaeda takes over, would not be good for Russia.

[Zorra]

6. Russia has serious long standing financial and strategic interests in Syria. nt

[andym]

7. Syria is part of their sphere of influence-- which has been shrinking for years.

Of course, they want to keep their "friends" in power. US missile strikes might destabilize Assad.

[polichick]

8. What's in it for Russia?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10023636450

[Hell Hath No Fury]

9. I think Putin will do anything --

Last edited Tue Sep 10, 2013, 10:20 PM - Edit history (1)

that put him/Russia back in the Big Leagues. Since the fall of the Soviet Union, Russia has not been the player it used to be -- and the old KGB head couldn't stand that.

Russia gets to stick it to the US, gain some street cred back, and keep very good friend al-Assad in power. And I am beginning to think that there is a little side deal between Putin and al-Assad -- perhaps something along the lines of "give up your chems and I'll happily continue to sell/give you all the convention weapons you need to stay in power."

Make no mistake: Putin has al-Assad's back.

And I suspect the US is perfectly happy to allow this to continue - it's a win-win-win.

[bhikkhu]

10. This way, it becomes in the international interests to keep Assad in power

...as Assad becomes the moderate in the war, and the one way forward for Syria to be rid of its chemical weapons.

If Assad were removed, you'd have a huge amount of chemical weapons in a country in indefinite chaos, with no real candidates to stabilize the situation. Any situation where the UN doesn't have to go in and forcefully control things (and there is no will for that, apparently) is good.

So Assad and Putin get to be the good guys. I don't think they were aiming to be the good guy roles, but its a hard carrot to pass by, coming with some increase in international stature.

[HooptieWagon]

11. Several reasons...

Russia wants to buy a little time for Assad.

Assad only controls 3 remaining airbases, Russia doesn't want them bombed.

Russia needs Syrian Army communications and radar intact for the new air defense system to work. US would have targeted them.

Russia knows rebels possess and have used CWs, Now any future CW use is proven to be by rebels, and Russia can use US's justification to bomb rebel positions with Russian aircraft. US can't do shit about it.

[Hell Hath No Fury]

12. There's the "elephant in the room" for me --

Another chem attack in Syria -- before al-Assad signs/hands over or after. Talk about a turd in the punchbowl.

[customerserviceguy]

14. Saving face

He's supported Assad for a very long time in order to have leverage in the region. But he didn't really want to double down on them over the chemical weapons thing, it's enormously unpopular right now, even if it doesn't move the rest of the world to a war footing.

Besides, what would he do if the US did fire cruise missiles into Syria? Take action against us, or just look wimpy by whining and protesting? This gives him the option of playing good cop to Obama's bad cop. He still retains leverage in the region, and in fact, expands on it for those who think US military action is undesirable.

[winter is coming]

15. Either a bribe or a threat was promised. Possibly both.

Yeah, you can pretty that up in flowery language as "international cooperation" but it boils down to a bribe and/or threat. Putin's not doing this out of the goodness of his heart.