Obama’s war-and-diplomacy appeal on Syria presents fresh risks to administration
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For now at least, the possible sequencing of what will unfold on Syria — diplomacy before military action — makes more sense than the zigs and zags of the past two weeks. The president can now pursue diplomatic efforts to force Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to turn over control of his chemical weapons to an international body, and eventually to see them destroyed. Failing that, he could then go back to Congress with a stronger case to make that he has exhausted peaceful efforts and that only military action is the only course left to deter the Syrians from using those weapons again.
But Obama got to this place more by accident than design. Events have not left him in a stronger position politically at home as the next phase unfolds. Opposition to military action remains strong and overnight reaction to the speech showed no particular uptick in his standing. How he handles what comes next is critically important.
So much remains uncertain. The new path elevates Russian President Vladimir Putin, Obama’s nemesis and Assad’s patron, and also leaves the reviled Assad as a central actor in a possible peaceful resolution. Obama provided few clues Tuesday night to his diplomatic strategy or to his patience. All he was willing to say was that it was “too early to tell whether this offer will succeed.”
What was lacking in the president’s address was any sense of a timetable for diplomacy or any indication of when he might go back to Congress to restart the clock on a resolution authorizing force. The reality, based on past history, is that these negotiations will be contentious and could drag on and on. Even if successful, the process leading to the eventual destruction of Syria’s chemical weapons could take months, if not years. Meanwhile, Assad likely would remain in power and the civil war would rage on.
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http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/obamas-war-and-diplomacy-appeal-on-syria-presents-fresh-risks-to-administration/2013/09/11/5ca944d0-1af9-11e3-8685-5021e0c41964_story.html