New MA poll: Brown leads Warren by 10; Obama leads Mittens by 18

[book_worm]

After months of Warren being close or slightly ahead, this is the second poll to have Brown up by a pretty good margin. My question is WHY!?

Sen. Scott Brown, R-Mass., leads Democratic challenger Elizabeth Warren by 10 points in a private Massachusetts Senate race poll.

The poll, conducted by Opinion Dynamics for Boston-based consulting firm Mass Insight Global Partnerships, shows Brown winning 52 percent to Warren's 42 percent, the second poll in two weeks giving Brown a wide lead. A Suffolk University poll released Feb. 16 put Brown up 9 points, 49 percent to 40 percent, departing from earlier surveys that portrayed a narrow lead for Warren.

A Mass Insight poll in October showed Brown with a five-point edge over Warren, 44 to 39.

Brown, meanwhile, gets 20 percent support among Democrats.

The poll also gives Obama an 18-point lead over former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, at 56 percent to 38 percent. Obama led by 7 percent in October. Romney's unfavorability rating has spiked from 25 percent then to 34 percent now.

http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2012/02/new-poll-shows-2.php

[neverforget]

1. Is she getting pounded with negative ads?

[onehandle]

2. Wait until President Obama shows up to support Elizabeth.

Mr. Pink Leather Shorts will be toast.

[Dawson Leery]

3. "an independent Republican like Scott Brown" WTF is this?

Scotty is no independent. Tomorrow he will be voting for the Blunt Amendment.

[banned from Kos]

16. Brown is no SoCon.

Warren has a huge battle in front of her.

[RDANGELO]

4. This is why we need to work hard for Obama.

If he can get a double digit lead going into the fall, he can go to places like Massachusetts and pump up Warren. He can go to the debate, step up the mic and say," give me a democratic congress if want things done."

[PCIntern]

5. Hmmm....

suppose you figured you were going to lose the Presidential race but intended in no uncertain terms that you wanted the House and Senate...so you commission polls or stack them so that the obvious - romney loses - is paired with the questionable.

Just sayin'...

[TheWraith]

15. So you're assuming that Suffolk University is being bribed?

Even if you believe Opinion Dynamics is unreliable, Suffolk University has no reason to falsify their polls.

[Robbins]

6. Question

Does this poll have a republican lean?

Independent Republican my ass.Brown cosponsored the Blunt amenenment.Why In the hell Is Brown getting 20 percent of
Democrats.

Obama needs to make a campagin swing In fall or make an ad showing democrats the real scott Brown.

[Mr.Turnip]

7. There is a slight silverlining for Warren.

49% of voters see it as important that the Rs do not take the Senate majority.

[ProSense]

8. This poll

Conducted from Jan. 31 to Feb. 4, the poll surveyed 456 registered voters and carries a plus/minus error margin of 4.6 percent. Mass Insight presented the poll to clients this morning at a meeting in Boston.

...is completely worthless. A very small sample and a nearly 5 point MOE? On edit: The poll is nearly a month old!

Look at the other caveats:

The new poll does not reflect the weeks of controversy around Brown's co-sponsorship of legislation permitting employers to restrict access to contraception insurance coverage on religious grounds. Brown has sparred with former Rhode Island Democratic Rep. Patrick Kennedy, who challenged the senator's assertion that the policy echoed the late Sen. Edward Kennedy's, whom Brown succeeded in a 2010 upset election.

In the interim, Warren's visibility has climbed. Among a broader sample of 500 residents, 40 percent in October said they had never heard of her; that number fell to 22 in the recent survey. Her favorable ratings moved in smaller increments, from 28 percent to 40 percent.

Brown, meanwhile, gets 20 percent support among Democrats.

I find that hard to believe.

[Dawson Leery]

10. Brown voted no on the following:

Voted NO for veteran's benefits
Voted NO for consumer protection from Bank fraud
Voted NO on extension of unemployment
Voted NO on finance investigations
Voted NO on All (but one) department appointments
Voted NO on Women's right to choose
Voted NO on Education funding
Voted NO on Environmental standards
Voted NO on Reining in MIlitary Budget
Voted NO on Funds for Massachusetts home heating oil
Voted NO on Responsible Fishing Guidelines

[Auntie Bush]

17. Wow, that's a lousy voting record. How can so many MA Dems go for him?

It's hard to believe!

[bluestate10]

19. Mass voters don't know yet. Politics move slowly Wait. nt

[underpants]

11. Anything over 3% has to be seen with a weary eye

4.6% means this was a bad poll

[Jackpine Radical]

13. Actually, it was a SMALL poll.

The MoE is dependent on the sample size; that's why the MoE is so large here.

[-..__...]

9. The Harvard Professor connection...

is more of a hindrance than help.

Harvard University, students, faculty, alumni, etc are held in low esteem (if not outright contempt),

by locals (at least the ones who were born and grew up here).

[Dokkie]

12. Even in MA?

u expect this kind of behaviour in the southern states. Geeze Louise, but there's still time for a comeback, lets keep our fingers crossed

[TheWraith]

18. It's not uncommon for the university people to be hated by "townies" and vice versa, at least here.

I can't speak for MA, but here in NY there's usually a certain amount of friction there, unless the town is PURELY based on the college. Sometimes even then. I remember a friend's stories about going to school at SUNY Delhi, and how basically the town really hated the college, and would specifically close businesses on a schedule so as to deny them to students and faculty, because the college was viewed as "disruptive."

[-..__...]

20. That partly explains it.

It's no big secret that Boston is a massive college center... BU, BC, MIT, North Eastern, just to name a few.

As a life long resident, and public safety employee... the colleges/universities, students here are just an unwelcome PITA.

What separates Hah-vard from those listed above, is the douche baggery, assholiness, snobbish, elitist attitude (or perception of that).

Keep in mind that the vast majority of graduates will eventually join the ranks of the 1% and there's even less use or tolerance of them.

[TheWraith]

21. Good point.

College students are often obnoxious enough. Rich, silver spoon college students would have to be one of the most obnoxious types I can imagine.

[Dawson Leery]

14. kick

[aaaaaa5a]

22. Don't women have a hard time winning state wide office in Massachusetts?

I believe that no woman in the history of the state has ever won statewide office.

When Romney won in 2002 he defeated a woman.

Then, in this very blue/liberal state, another woman lost statewide office for TED KENNEDY'S OLD SEAT!

And now just under 2 years later, this is the second poll that shows Obama with a roughly 20 point lead in his race, while a candidate like Elizabeth Warren trails by double digits IN THE SAME POLL!


Yes... I know what you are going to say. The two women candidates (2002, 2010) who the Democrats nominated simply weren't that good. Well, maybe so. But then how do you explain Elizabeth Warren? No reasonable person can provide an explanation as to how she is now a double digit underdog in the state of Massachusetts.


I guess she is just "another bad candidate too, who just happens to be a woman." Oh.. and by the way.. my best friend is black.