There Will Be Another Mass Shooting. This Is What the Data Tells Us About It
See the full article for how they generated their conclusions regarding the probability of the next mass shooting.
That, at least, is what a look at the data on past such shootings might indicate. We'll say at the outset: Every assertion in the first paragraph is a function of probability, not fact. The next mass shooting — which will happen somewhere, sometime — will almost certainly not be in that place at that time. But a look at the historic data on such killings, compiled and shared by Mother Jones magazine, makes each of those predictions defensible.
If President Obama's second term has been beset by "unpredictable calamities" like the Navy Yard shooting, in the words of the Washington Post's David Nakamura, we thought we'd try and offer a little prediction. Especially since, if such incidents occur at the same pace for the rest of Obama's term as they have since 2009, there could be 14 more before he leaves office.
Here's how we came up with our predictions. . .
The vast majority of guns used in mass killings were obtained legally — 81.8 percent. Advocates of gun control will note that this bolsters the case for tighter restrictions, particularly given the overlap between those with mental health issues and those able to buy guns. Opponents of gun control will note that nearly a fifth of shootings used illegally obtained guns, suggesting that new controls won't prevent such shootings. . . .
As for the type of weapon, the database did most of the work on this, too. Not every shooter used a semi-automatic handgun, but at each of the workplace or "other" events, such a weapon was the most common one present.
http://www.theatlanticwire.com/politics/2013/09/there-will-be-another-mass-shooting/69508/
One thing is for sure, these shootings happen continually. As long as too many Americans remain complacent and don't prioritize gun control, the gun lobby will continue to undermine public safety in the interests of increased profits for manufacturers and dealers. An average of 87 Americans die every day from gun violence, through either suicide, homicide, or accidental discharge of weapons. Gun violence represent a far greater threat to public safety than terrorism, yet our society does little to prevent it.
= new reply since forum marked as read
If both sides work together, it can be done.
Not someone I know and not a DU member, AFAIK.
I've never said that we shouldn't do stricter gun control unless we do the other things, too.
I've only said that doing only gun control won't be nearly as effective as a compound approach.
The ascription of these false characteristics to me and to others, usually blended with some anger, is always a discussion stopper.
Since virtually any gun made in the last 150 years can be used in a mass shooting, we have to ask ourselves "why, despite this potential being in existence for so long, is it being realized now more than before?"
Of course, the overall homicide rate it as low as it's been since the 50's. That saves tens of thousands of lives a year, at least.
Interesting data on the frequency of mass shootings. Data from the BJS, graph from yours truly.
Obviously, the chart ends in 2005, the end of the study period. But it is population-adjusted.
We're at about 0.05 incidents per million people in 2005; or one incident per 20 million people, for the "5 or more victims" catagory.
Hmmm... maybe I should have made the Y-axis in terms of "incidents per 100 million people", so we get nice round numbers.
the NRA and gun nuts as it spends $75 billion a year in part to unconstitutionally spy on its own citizens, eviscerating their constitutional rights in the process without concern or apology, to best assure not one American life is lost at the hand of a foreign terraist on American soil. 