Can We Get A Congress Elected in 2014 That Will Work With Our President and Not Against Him?

[Cha]

[KeepItReal]

1. Let's go back to the 50 state strategy

I'll never understand why they threw out the play book after Gov. Dean.

[GreenPartyVoter]

2. Me either.

[SoCalDem]

8. Post-census years are gerrymandering years

Republican governors are never shy about tinkering in off-years too (see Texas)
Elections of :

1970....13

1980....19

1990....20

2000...29

2010...29

[ScreamingMeemie]

32. Because the staunch DLCers never wanted to admit he was right.

Agreed. We need to go back to that. It plays well.

[mahina]

3. Imua kakou!

[Turbineguy]

4. If we still have elections.

Maybe. There's a lot of self-destruction out there.

[Cha]

6. I totally hear ya.. and ask anyone..

I'm a "1/2 Full" kinda girl.

Still.. thought we use some sort of uplifting thing to grasp on to!

[HERVEPA]

5. sadly, very unlikely

[Cha]

7. Maybe.. but, I know we'll still be

working our for just such an outcome!

[Coyotl]

13. Says one person, but many vote.

We shall see when the time comes how difficult it was.

[HERVEPA]

14. Sorry, I'm kind of reality-based.

You might want to check this out. Nate has an amazing track record.

http://www.grantland.com/fivethirtyeight/story/_/id/9802433/nate-silver-us-government-shutdown

[Bernardo de La Paz]

20. Thanks for excellent Nate Silver link. nt

[HERVEPA]

21. You're welcome. Depressing, but probably accurate.

[SolutionisSolidarity]

27. Nate has an amazing track record analyzing polls close to elections.

But from reading the article he doesn't seem to be making any useful claims. He says it will be hard to win the House without a wave election but that there aren't enough polls and we are too far out and the circumstances are too unprecendented to make any calls. I think Nate's being a bit too cautious here, which is one caution I have against the misuse of his advice. Nate can tell you reasonably well where things stand based upon a systematic review of current polling, but he's no oracle and I think he's dead wrong to be so blase on this.

The issue isn't going away, and I just don't see the optics improving for the GOP, especially as this gives way to open internecine conflict within the Republican Party. You guys aren't watching Fox News - this is a replay of the 2012 election. Fox is telling them that Obama is on the ropes, and Republicans just need to stay strong as the American people rise up with them. They really think they are winning. Now we either hit the debt limit or the Republican base is going to be furious at the "RINOs" who surrendered to Obama. Either event coupled with strong Democratic turnout = wave election.

[HERVEPA]

28. His track record is fine farther away from elections also.

[BlueCaliDem]

38. Not in the last election - up until weeks before.

But the PPP was the most accurate pollster throughout. On the other hand, Nate Silver's poll is an aggregate poll, taking the results from various other polls, and because most - if not all, excluding the PPP - were bloating the numbers for the Republicans using questionable variables - Nate Silver's poll was off up until the last minute when individual pollsters were finally reporting more accurate numbers - something they always do.

Polls are only as accurate as the variables they use to calculate them. This is also valid for an aggregate pollsters like Nate Silver.

[BlueCaliDem]

33. Sam Wang, an analyst for the Princeton Election Consortium, doesn't agree with Nate Silver's

analysis simply because of the data that he used to come to his conclusion. Wang believes that gerrymandering has actually weakened, not strengthened, the GOP.

His [Nate Silver's] description of conditions is a good overview of pre-shutdown conditions. If we stop with the continual budget crises, then I agree that we might drift back toward the conventional prediction (R’s keep control in 2014).

Where we differ is that I am adding to that picture the sea change in the last two weeks. As I’ve written, there’s big stuff going on. Poll movement is substantial and rapid in the generic Congressional ballot. Multiple polls, including a detailed one from NBC/WSJ, show that public sentiment has turned against the GOP. Under the radar, gerrymandered districts are swinging much harder than I was expecting. If the election were today, Democrats would control the House by about 50 seats. That will fade, but by how much?

Silver lists other events that didn’t move opinion: Benghazi, and the IRS business, and Syria. But the shutdown has, bigtime. I agree with him that most pundits emit bulls**t, which is why I am working on a prediction model. Right now, the model is saying: as long as the GOP stays on its current path, where the House goes next fall is an even-money bet.
http://election.princeton.edu/

He was on Disrupt with Karen Finney today. You can see him explain his analysis at this link (interview with Sam Wang starts at 11: 55: http://video.msnbc.msn.com/disrupt/53265204#53265204

[HERVEPA]

37. From his mouth to The Flying Spaghetti Monster's ears

[BlueCaliDem]

39. I don't know what that means.

Can you explain?

[HERVEPA]

42. OK

There is an expression "From your mouth to god's ears". You can look it up.
My deity is the "Flying Spaghetti Monster"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flying_Spaghetti_Monster

[BlueCaliDem]

43. LOL! Thanks. eom

[HERVEPA]

44. You're welcome.

[adavid]

9. The current Speaker of the House,

is the weakest and most "rooster-pecked" Speaker in the history of the US.

[handmade34]

26. unfortunately

it wouldn't be any better if Eric Cantor were in that position... or for that matter... any other republican right now

[Andy823]

10. I sure hope so.

What is going on now is plain outright insanity at it's best. Hold the country hostage simply to try and stop people from getting health care shows just how low the GOP really is. The country is starting to wake up, and this works out well for democrats. If the tea party clowns don't stop this crap, the powers that be in the GOP will be doing all the can to make sure they never get elected to office again. Sadly money is what put these idiots into office, and that same money can take them out of office. I really think that the powers that be would rather see a democrat win instead of the tea party clowns. If they get rid of the tea party, they still might be able to stop their death spiral, but what has happened over this debacle will keep them a minority for years to come.

We need to win in 2014, and again in 2016. We also need to make damn sure that it's a democrat in office when it comes time to replace members on the Supreme court. There is no way this country can survive if more republicans are put on the court.

People need to keep these things in mind when someone tries to tell them not voting, or voting for a their party will "teach the party a lesson". If people haven't learned their lesson after 2010, then I don't know what to say. This country can not afford more states being ran by republicans, and we can't afford to give them the WH and both houses of congress.

You are right Cha, the answer to your question should be "YES WE CAN, AND WE WILL"!

[Cha]

12. Thank you, Andy, for this detailed description of what

is going on here!

We Will Do Our Very Best and Beyond.. I don't blame some for saying we might not be able to because of the "gerrymandered" Districts.. but, anything can happen by then. Even the Kochs are NOT liking this current turn of catastrophic crisis due their teakochs.

And, we know the Chamber of Commerce isn't down with it.. as well as Wall Street!

[femmocrat]

11. Probably not.

They seem to have gerrymandered themselves into another mid-term victory. I am hopeful but not optimistic.

[Triana]

15. Doubtful. Most are in deep red, badly gerrymandered districts. They know they're safe no matter what

That's why they feel emboldened to let their Batshit Crazy out now - even if it destroys the country.

[Coyotl]

16. I know one person who can change the one thing that needs to change, Obama can

change who votes in mid-term elections.

[Doctor_J]

17. No. We had in 2009-2010 60 (D) Senators and 259 (D) House members, and still let the Repukes

set the agenda. there is no way the majorities next time will be larger. If they couldn't get things done that time, they won't next time. That's why the turnout was so poor in 2010. They demonstrated to the new and uncommitted voters that they are weak and ineffective. Part of this is the president's fault since he decided to work with the Republicans who were resoundingly defeated in 2009. The other part is Pelosi and Reid and the rest of the corporate Dems.

[Uncle Joe]

18. Yes, the Republicans are doing their best to make it a reality.

Thanks for the thread, Cha.

[Cha]

23. Thank you, Uncle Joe!

[Snake Plissken]

19. Can We Get A Congress Elected in 2014 That Will Work for the American People and Not Against us?

[Cha]

22. Yes, I like yours Better! thanks Snake nm

[treestar]

24. Yes we can!

Not letting Nate Silver decide this over a year before the election!

[Cha]

25. Things could Change Drastically by then, Treestar!

Expect the Unexpected!

[BlueCaliDem]

40. Neither is Sam Wang. See my post

here, treestar: http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=3839160

According to Sam Wang, who used the Moveon.org commissioned PPP pollster (who used a form of aggregate polling in 30+ districts, specifically the most gerrymandered districts) shows that if the American people are reminded of the Republican Shutdown and the Republican-manufactured debt ceiling crisis, the most gerrymandered districts are the most vulnerable to swing to Democrats.

He explains why in his analysis.

[William769]

29. Kick & recommended.

[Cha]

30. Again, I thank you, William~

[William769]

31. Anytime.

[Warren DeMontague]

34. K&R

Unless we fix the House, we're stuck with completely dysfunctional government. The GOP has proven definitively that they're not capable of governing like adults.

[Cha]

35. We

"may".. just maybe have Wallstreet, Chamber of Commerce, & Big Business on our side this time.

Lot could change by then but the way things are now.. nobody's happy with teabaggers except teabaggers.

Get people in there who aren't going to take US Citizens Hostages and our Country Hostage when they don't get their way.

I can't even think of fitting enough karma for John Boehner right now.

[IronLionZion]

36. Yes please!

Every vote helps. This of all things should show the importance of turning out the vote to get Democrats elected in any type of jurisdiction, including the state governments who draw congressional district lines after census. 2010 was bad for us.

We should totally bring back the 50 state strategy that got us both houses of congress in 2006.

[BlueCaliDem]

41. Absolutely, Cha! K&R

And according to Sam Wang, an analyst for the Princeton Election Consortium, the most vulnerable districts in the next election are those that have been gerrymandered the most. He bases this on the Moveon.org commissioned poll conducted by the most accurate pollster of the 2012 elections, the liberal PPP.

You can read my post about that, that includes links to his analysis and a link to watch him explain some of it on Karen Finney's "Disrupt" show from yesterday: http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=3839160