"In case you haven’t noticed, the economy is actually getting better. Noticeably better."

[Pirate Smile]

Last edited Sun Mar 4, 2012, 11:03 PM - Edit history (1)

Signs the economy is turning around

by Steven Pearlstein

In case you haven’t noticed, the economy is actually getting better. Noticeably better.
-snip-

The data points for this optimism are to be found in recent reports on private payrolls (averaging just under 200,000 jobs per month for the past year), gross domestic product (growing at an annual rate of 3 percent), consumer confidence (as high as its been since 2008) and income (up 5 percent in the past year before adjusting for inflation).

On Wall Street, the Dow is at its highest point in nearly four years and Nasdaq at its highest point in a decade, reflecting both record profits and renewed investor confidence. Federal and state tax revenues are beginning to come in better than projected and households are continuing to whittle down their debt, with a savings rate of 4.5 percent. There are even enough green shoots in the housing market to suggest that residential construction might contribute to GDP growth this year rather than subtract from it. Revisions of government data are now reliably up rather than down.

And yet, there are those on the Republican right and the Democratic left who have so much invested in a bad economy that they are reluctant to acknowledge any of this good news.

If all you did was to listen to Republican presidential candidates (a cruel and unusual punishment, I realize), you would surely be under the impression that the country was teetering on the brink of bankruptcy, businesses were barely getting by under the weight of excessive taxation and regulation, and most of the middle class was standing in bread lines. Their relentless demagoguery has undermined the recovery as much as the gridlock politics practiced by their Republican counterparts in Congress. When forced to confront the facts about the economy and the financial markets, the best response these jeremiads can come up with is that it could have been better.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/post/signs-the-economy-is-turning-around/2012/03/04/gIQAL3s5qR_blog.html?wprss=linkset

[Initech]

1. Tell that to these people:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bunch-young-lawyers-suing-law-195616601.html



I think it's time we came up with a new system for monitoring the economy - the Dow, NASDAQ and S&P are clearly screwing us over.

[elleng]

2. You're probably right about a new system for monitoring.

As to the recent law school grads, not too smart, imo.

[Initech]

3. I saw that article on Fail Blog.

[TheWraith]

19. "those... who have so much invested in a bad economy they are reluctant to acknowledge any of this"

[Lucky Luciano]

40. How about new vehicle sales? Comes out

...on the first of the month. Last one was a blockbuster. Better than cash for clunkers for the first time since the crash.

[Demeter]

4. I got ONE Number Against This Argument: $4/Gallon gasoline

Any improvement has just evaporated.

Or perhaps, the wrong question has been asked. Better for Whom?

[bhikkhu]

7. "Good economy" and "expensive gas" are two terms inextricably linked

...one may as well get used to it.

Production of oil has only increased (to the extent that it has increased at all) by exploiting very difficult and expensive to extract and process sources. We could have cheap oil again for awhile if half of the users kicked the habit and we only needed 45 million barrels a day or so, but 90 million barrels a day is inherently expensive to keep up with. Break-even for producers is about $100 a barrel at that level.

Recession reduces demand, and price goes down a bit. Economic expansion increases demand and competition for a heavily over-used finite resource drives up the price.

So, we either have a good economy and expensive gas, or cheap gas and a rotten economy...you can accept it as just the way it is, or gripe about the rottenness of the world we have compared to how it used to be, or perhaps look for alternatives to oil to pave the way forward.

[Demeter]

10. Um, No

The economy was good when gas was cheap. It has not been good since Nixon's oil shock. It's been bubble after bubble, with inflation and debasement of the currency. This crash has been building for all of my adult life. It's gonna be a big, rolling one like an avalanche or tsunami, a force of nature, and there is no "improvement" in the economy as a whole. For every person having an improvement, there are six or seven seeing their futures wither away.

[bhikkhu]

11. Oil is a limited resource, and consumption has increased to the limit of the extraction rate

...at which point, you have an increasing number of competitors for a limited supply. That's not intended to describe how it was in the 50's, or how it was under Nixon, but how it is currently. The past isn't coming back.

Good economic times increase competition for the resources the economy depends on. As far as the physical realities of the situation go, bubbles, inflation or deflation, speculation, etc - none of that changes the basic equation for very long.

So you can accept it or not. In the long term, any large-scale culture dependent on fossil fuels is doomed to be replaced by a culture which is not dependent on fossil fuels, and leading the way forward is more useful than nostalgia.

[Zalatix]

12. Regrettable, but true. We're hitting peak EVERYTHING.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/in-demand.html

[Javaman]

36. I made the same anol0gy last time gas went up

and got massively flamed.

addicts don't like to have their addictions pointed out to them, especially when they are still in denial.

Cheers!

[JDPriestly]

14. It won't affect the economy as much as it would have in the past.

We just don't use nearly the gas we used to use -- and the winter was relatively mild, so heating oil is not the problem it might be.

It's the fact that the new jobs pay lower wages than the old ones did that will hurt the middle/working class.

But still, it's good if there is an upswing in the employment numbers. It's the first step.

There are still some huge problems out there -- like derivatives that are rotten to the core, like the fact that bank ledgers have not yet taken the losses that honestly and strictly pricing their assets to the market would mean.

I expect yet another dip in the economy as the debts and losses that have not been acknowledged on the books of companies and individuals become evident and unavoidably must be recognized.

[ellisonz]

5. DOW 13,000!

Who's not excited! It will trickle!

[Dokkie]

31. Hehe

or another one is where people post big corp profit margin increases like it means a damn thing to my situation when am barely managing

[madrchsod]

6. more job openings in the last few years around where i live

lots of new and rehire welding and assembly jobs. even skilled business support jobs are starting to come back.

[paulk]

8. usual bullshit attack on the "Democratic left"

"And yet, there are those on the Republican right and the Democratic left who have so much invested in a bad economy that they are reluctant to acknowledge any of this good news."

[TheWraith]

20. Because it's true, as evidenced right here in this thread.

Despite great heaping piles of evidence, some people refuse to accept that the economy is improving and will do anything to deny that fact.

[paulk]

23. don't worry, be happy

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/05/opinion/krugman-states-of-depression.html?_r=1

maybe it's just that some prefer a more realistic appraisal.

[TheWraith]

39. There's nothing "realistic" about mocking and deriding reality. nt

[paulk]

42. tell it to Krugman

I'm sure he'll give your opinion the weight it deserves...

[Enrique]

33. fuck Steven Pearlstein

I never heard of him before, but based on that outrageous lie, I'm sure he's an asshole.

[Nye Bevan]

9. So much negativity in the responses here.

Reminds me of a GOP presidential debate. Why are so many DUers reluctant to admit that the economy is improving?

[Tarheel_Dem]

13. Your question seems to puzzle you, me, and the author the o.p. I've never seen anything quite....

like it. You'd think this president was supposed to pull full employment out of his ass the day he was sworn in. Saving us a from near disaster isn't quite good enough. Any good news is met with derision from his critics on the both the left and the right. One of the complaints from some Democrats has been that this president seems reluctant to talk about his accomplishments, and even when he sorta does, he always qualifies it with "but".....

I guess the old saying "You can't please all the people" applies to this administration much more than those of his predecessors.

[girl gone mad]

37. The simple fact is that the economy is not improving for most people.

Housing prices are still declining, wages are stagnant, the jobs which are being created are low wage and part time, student debt is crushing young people, inflation in commodities (caused by terrible Fed policies) is hurting the middle class, health care is more unaffordable than ever and now the banks we bailed out are moving in for the kill.

The administration screwed up. They had a golden opportunity to rein in the financial sector and bail out the middle class. They bailed out wall street and left the middle class to rot, and that's exactly what's happening.

[Tarheel_Dem]

41. Yup. Obama should've nationalized everything, and then we'd be Venezuela.

Gee Thanks.

Wasn't Dodd-Frank designed to "rein in the financial sector"? Whether you like it or not, things are improving for a lot of people. There were unemployed poor folks before Obama was born, and there will be unemployed poor folks long after he's dead.

Most of us didn't vote for a Chavez style presidency. The administration's only screwup was paying any attention to his "unreasonable" professional left critics. For the people who have been able to return to work after an extended UE, I doubt they really give a shit what you think about the improving economy, much like myself.

[Fumesucker]

17. A great many DUers are hurting financially..

Every thread that gets into people's personal finances shows it

Here's a thread that asks "Are you better off than you were 24 years ago"..

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1002382597

The answer from a lot of people, "No"..

It's going to take a great deal more "recovery" before that changes and people's attitudes aren't going to change unless and until their situation changes..

[ellisonz]

18. +1000

[DCBob]

16. "Their relentless demagoguery has undermined the recovery as much as the gridlock politics"

so true. Its like a self-fulfilling prophecy. The relentless shouting about how bad things are affects the mood of consumers which of course affects the economy.

[Fumesucker]

21. What effects the mood of many consumers the most is that they don't have any money..

A lot of them are unemployed or underemployed, it's funny how that will make you feel negative about the economy.

[DCBob]

22. No doubt.

But their negative comments also affect those with jobs and money.

[Fumesucker]

24. Really, the poor and unemployed should just STFU..

A bunch of loser assholes whining about their pathetic problems brings the rest of us down.

</person with job and money>

[DCBob]

25. How do you get that from what I wrote??

Maybe you misunderstood. I was referring to the negative comments being made by Republicans.

[Fumesucker]

26. My handle is a reference to my financial situation..

Like sucking fumes, running on empty..

I was in a very bad frame of mind when I picked it, the thing is, I was objectively better off then than I am now by a good bit.

Evidently I misinterpreted your remark, it was pretty hurtful whether you intended it that way or not, when you say such things you should be very clear who you are referring to and in this case I don't think you were.

My frame of mind is somewhat better now but remarks like you made sure bring back that feeling of helplessness and despair, my comment was a reflection of that.

[DCBob]

27. ..

understood.

[eridani]

28. Unfortunately, it's improving to a totally unacceptable NEW NORMAL

Percent job losses in post WWII recessions--the last three recoveries have been jobless, including current one



Average duration of unemployment since 1940---NEVER much above 20 weeks until now

[socialist_n_TN]

30. Yeah, I think that this is what bothers THIS particular........

leftist about the economy. It's doing great for the ones who already HAVE. They're sitting on a growing mountain of cash. And to be fair, it's improving slightly for a few of the rest of us. But it's improving to a new, poorer version of what we have come to expect.

Personally, I got a job about 6 months ago that seems to be going well, BUT I'm misclassified as a "contractor" which means my tax liability is more than it should be. And my salary is still only about 2/3 of what it was back in the 90s. Which means that with inflation still rising and my income still at less than it was, I have less buying power than I did a decade ago.

In addition, this recovery is still so fragile that ANYTHING could bring it to a standstill. From a Euro crisis to high gasoline prices, the threats are many. And finally, because of the inherent nature of economic crises in the capitalist system, it WILL NOT last. Sooner or later it will slump again and I have a feeling (based on observation) that the crises of capitalism from now on will be harder and deeper than anything we've seen in our lifetimes.

I can still give Obama props for ameliorating this current crisis and bringing us back from the brink, but I have serious doubts that it will last. Hopefully, it will last through the next election so that we keep the proto fascists out of elective office, but we WILL have to deal with another huge crisis of capitalism before the elections of '16.

[eridani]

43. 2016 is the key for sure

That's why I am so impatient with all the nonsense about running against Obama from the left. Ferchrssakes! We barely have time to get a serious campaign for an economic populist going for 2016!

[LiberalEsto]

29. I got a $30 freelance job two weeks ago.

First money I've earned in a year and a half.

I'm not holding my breath about getting anything else, though.

[Enrique]

32. the Democratic left is "invested in a bad economy"

fuck that shit.

[cbdo2007]

34. That may be the most intelligent article I've read on DU the past two years.

Unfortunately, an honest, "middle of the road" type of conversation about the economy is likely to get buried by loud mouths on both sides, rather than reading and learning from it's observations.

[Enrique]

35. who are the loud mouths on the left?

would that we had some loud mouths on the economy. Our loudest mouth has been Paul Krugman, do we really think we'd be better off if he were more like Steve Pearlstein?

[TBF]

45. I think I've read and learned enough about capitalism to be unimpressed.

Anyone arguing for the status quo is likely more comfortable than they have a right to be, given all of those in the world who are starving and homeless.

[magical thyme]

38. when my personal, home economy improves

I'll believe the economy is improving. So far, I'm still tumbling down a rocky hill. Every time I *think* I've hit a ledge, it cracks out from under me. If I could at least sell my house, I might get some breathing room.

[paulk]

44. uh huh

http://www.democraticunderground.com/101468434

[SunsetDreams]

46. all the more reason to push that narrative I guess

[paulk]

51. to what narrative

do you refer?

[Peter1x9]

47. It's only better for the 1%

n/t

[sad sally]

48. We of the sinking middle class may sink without further struggles into the working class

where we belong, and probably when we get there it will not be so dreadful as we feared, for, after all, we have nothing to lose.

George Orwell

[Broderick]

49. Knock on wood

So far, it has been a good month or two. Elated.

[Peter1x9]

50. Here's the article I was looking for on this:

Richest 1 Percent Account For Nearly All Of U.S. Recovery's Gains: Report

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/03/05/1-percent-income-inequality_n_1321008.html


Imo, it's not really a recovery until the turnaround happens for more than just the 1%. There's also no such thing as the BS people have been spewing called the "Jobless Recovery".