"Truth in the Age of Niallism"

[applegrove]

Truth in the Age of Niallism

by Matthew O'Brien at the Atlantic

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/10/truth-in-the-age-of-niallism/280507/

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Here are three facts about how the 10-year budget outlook has changed in the past year: 1) the fiscal cliff deal raised $600 billion in new revenue; 2) the sequester, if left in place, cut spending by $1.2 trillion; 3) the CBO revised its projection for federal healthcare spending down by $600 billion.

Harvard historian Niall Ferguson has a counterfactual take. Here's how he described how our debt trajectory changed the past year:

A very striking feature of the latest CBO report is how much worse it is than last year's. A year ago, the CBO's extended baseline series for the federal debt in public hands projected a figure of 52% of GDP by 2038. That figure has very nearly doubled to 100%. A year ago the debt was supposed to glide down to zero by the 2070s. This year's long-run projection for 2076 is above 200%. In this devastating reassessment, a crucial role is played here by the more realistic growth assumptions used this year.

This isn't a difference of opinion. It's incorrect. But it's incorrect for reasons that will escape casual readers.


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