Massachusetts’ U.S. House Race Shows Power of the Primary

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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-15/massachusetts-u-s-house-race-shows-power-of-the-primary.html

The next U.S. House member from Massachusetts’ 5th congressional district could be a Democrat backed by women, or a different one backed by labor, or a third candidate supported by gay groups. Bottom line, barring an upset, it will be a Democrat.

Voters today will nominate candidates to fill a seat vacated by former Representative Ed Markey, a Democrat elected in a June special election to the U.S. Senate. It’s a primary contest with oversized importance and a template for how other open-seat races will play out this week in New Jersey and Louisiana, as well as in the 2014 midterm elections.

Of the 18 districts where House members aren’t seeking re-election next year, the outcome in as many as 16 are likely to be determined in the primary after voters in them showed a partisan preference by backing a presidential nominee by a margin of at least 12 percentage points last year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

In Massachusetts, President Barack Obama won the 5th district in 2012 with 65 percent of the vote, and Democrat Elizabeth Warren took 59 percent in winning a U.S. Senate seat. That Democratic dominance will create a significant disadvantage for the Republican nominee in the Dec. 10 election to fill Markey’s seat.