So, why aren't "we" buying more electric cars?

[theophilus]

Here is a story on the Yahoo page:

http://autos.yahoo.com/blogs/motoramic/weak-chevy-volt-sales-lead-five-week-plant-210758486.html

Upshot is they are closing down the assembly line for Volts for a bit because of low sales. Also the Leaf is hardly selling. Why is this? Are they not being offered enough? Are they too expensive? Are Americans just stuck with their love affair with oil based transportation? What's the deal? If I could afford an electric I would get one ASAP. Who is failing to deliver here? I believe that if a simple (few bells and whistles) electric was offered for 20K or less (15K would be nice) they would take off. I'll roll my own windows up and down, etc. I have a Yaris and it was affordable. It's time for another Henry Ford type (Oprah, are you listening)to present a gamechanging auto that is a plug in for the working class. What do you think?

[Fumesucker]

1. Batteries still cost too much..

That's the major hangup, most of the rest of the technology is fairly mature but the batteries are still a large portion of the cost of an EV..

It's probably going to take another five years or so before battery costs come down and energy density gets high enough for cheaper and longer range EVs..

[theophilus]

7. I believe five years will be too late. We don't have much time left. n/t

[JHB]

25. Suggestion: Standardize batteries & swap them out

I recall a YouTube video of a speech by someone (I forget who), trying to get at some of the practical problems with electric cars.

One of the things he suggested that made a lot of sense is standardizing battery packages so that they could be swapped out simply and easily, if not by hand then by putting the car through an automated battery-swapper that it would be run through like in a car wash. These things would be set up at locations much like gas stations, and have a stock of spares.

This would better allow:
1) a car to get a full recharge in a couple of minutes, just like you do when you fill up a tank;
2) the batteries could then be recharged while they are sitting around at the charging station, while the car is off on its way;
3) the batteries to be upgraded independently of the car itself;
4) multiple manufacturers, as long as they conform to the standards.

[theophilus]

28. Sounds interesting. Might be a good way to "get the show

on the road". Later it might not be necessary. The government could provide the swap stations if private business falls down on the job (as usual).

[Schema Thing]

54. this

[IDemo]

62. Like this? ->

http://www.youtube.com/v/OHHvjsFm_88&hl=en_US&fs=1&rel=0

[JHB]

103. Yes, that's exactly what was discussed.

That particular place was a demonstration model, so it was much more open than a working one would need to be. A lot of gas stations could fit one right on their existing property, the way some have added automated washes.

[KansDem]

33. We've been hearing this for years...decades

It has always been "in five years" or some other similar prediction.

From 1966--
The Wall Street Journal reported that Ford Motor Co. claimed it made a “major breakthrough in battery research" that will allow electric cars to achieve much longer driving range. According to the story, the timetable for introduction cars using the breakthrough EV technology will be five to ten years. Here’s the most interesting thing: the article was published more than 45 years ago, on Oct. 4, 1966.



In the article, Michael Ference, Ford vice-president for scientific research, made it clear that electric cars will not fully displace vehicles powered by gasoline—but conceded that there’s room for an EV for short-range urban and suburban driving. “The internal combustion engine will continue to be the most practical form of power for long-distance and expressway driving for some time to come,” said Ference.

Company officials said the battery breakthrough—using a sodium-sulfur chemistry instead of lead-acid—would mean a car about the size of a Ford Falcon could go 82 miles on a single charge.

Laurence G. O’Donnell, the Wall Street Journal reporter, wrote that the reason Ford was “pushing development of an electric car” was the prospect of new federal support designed to cut air pollution caused by gas-powered cars. “Ford conceded that introduction of a bill calling for federal aid to subsidize development of battery-powered vehicles was a prime reason it announced its battery research work months ahead of its original plans,” writes O’Donnell.

--more--
http://www.plugincars.com/ford%E2%80%99s-electric-car-battery-breakthrough-45-years-ago-109417.html

We've been hearing this claptrap nonstop for almost five decades. Or that some super-breakthrough in engine development will give us oodles of miles to the gallon.

At best, we've slightly more than doubled our MPG in the last 35 years--



http://www.pewenvironment.org/news-room/fact-sheets/history-of-fuel-economy-one-decade-of-innovation-two-decades-of-inaction-329037

But we're still going to war for oil and driving gasoline-burning automobiles...

[theophilus]

36. Great info. I believe this progress is being opposed by some

powerful, and wealthy, groups. Hmmmmmm? I wonder who it could be?

[HughBeaumont]

78. Give thee a hint: it rhymes with "Moil Partel".

[Fumesucker]

67. The difference being that there are actual production electric cars out now..

The electronics and the motors are far more sophisticated now than they were in 1966.

Developing a battery that will power a car reliably is not a simple or easy task, the Tesla Roadster did it with several thousand laptop type cells with a highly sophisticated charging and balancing system to keep track of the performance of every single cell.

[Jackpine Radical]

41. Here's some pretty exciting news along those lines…

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=new-energy-dense-battery-could-enable-long-distance-electric-cars

NATIONAL HARBOR, Md.—A company founded in the Palo Alto public library has taken a dose of government money and technology and turned it into the most energy-dense battery ever. Envia System's new lithium-ion battery packs roughly twice as much energy per gram as present batteries, the company will announce here at the third annual summit of the Advanced Research Projects Agency—Energy (ARPA–e).

"We achieved 400 watt-hours per kilogram," explains materials scientist Sujeet Kumar, Envia co-founder and chief technology officer. "We have made a 40 ampere cell in a large format that automakers can recognize and use," and one that has been validated by independent energy density tests at the Naval Surface Warfare Center in Crane, Ind.

With a $4 million grant from ARPA–e, the Envia technology builds on work done at Argonne National Laboratory that found that including manganese in a mix of materials for the cathode—the electrode to which the lithium ions flock—better energy densities could be achieved. The team then switched focus to the anode—the electrode from which lithium ions flow to produce the electric current—and boosted its performance by incorporating silicon along with the typical graphite.

By blending silicon with carbon, the researchers claim to have gotten around the problems of silicon anodes that have disabled other batteries ability to charge and discharge time and time again. Simply put, silicon swells. "It will hardly last 10 cycles because of the high volumetric changes," admits Kumar. But by encasing it in a carbon coating—as well as interlacing carbon fibers—the Envia team argues it has surmounted that problem and its battery has cycled 400 times—and counting. "Even if the silicon pulverizes in the first cycle, connectivity is maintained through the carbon fibers," Kumar adds, though that impacts the voltage.

[theophilus]

47. Great news....if it will actually materialize. We need it NOW. Thanks. n/t

[former9thward]

2. They have a very small range between charges.

That will never work in a country where people drive large distances.

[theophilus]

5. It would certainly work for me and I believe it would work for far more people than are buying the

electrics. Many commute to work much less than the range of an EV. They wouldn't be practical for road trips but everyday driving, I would think, they would be perfect.

[HillWilliam]

12. I have a 60-mile commute each way to work and back

I see ranges of like 75 miles. If I get stuck in traffic, I'm stuck. Once I get to work, where to charge?

Lord, I want an electric car for a load of reasons (lowered cost to operate, for one). Aside from not being able to swing the price, the range is huge limitation for me.

When I bought my last car five years ago, I went for the most fuel-efficient I could find and afford.

We do what we can do.

[theophilus]

30. Thanks for that. We certainly do what we can. I believe the Gov't. needs to help

folks that are trying by providing real rebates and building charging stations, etc. There is not much political will, seemingly.

[dipsydoodle]

3. Any reports I've seen over here in the UK on the subject

revolve around the issue of both recharging and the distance such cars will travel on a full charge. To my mind they're of more use as a second car.

[theophilus]

6. A second car that doesn't burn petroleum would be great. n/t

[snooper2]

4. Because I require something that can pull a two ton trailer-

and can haul twenty sheets of drywall or a cubic yard of mulch when required...

[theophilus]

8. Do you drive that vehicle everywhere? Do you take it to Sonic? How about an electric as a second

car?

[HappyMe]

13. Not everyone can afford a 2nd car.

Even if I had the money for an electric car, there is nowhere at this apartment complex to plug it in.

[theophilus]

26. I hear that. I wish the government would provide charging stations

and give real rebates to encourage buying. But I keep forgetting that Govt. is the "problem" (sarcasm).

[HappyMe]

32. I personally can't afford any car right now.

I'm hoping to get a $1500 beater in the late fall.

[Life Long Dem]

42. That I think is the problem.

Nowhere to plug the car in.

[snooper2]

27. Of course I do, it's my truck...Yes, we go to Sonic together...

My second car is a 03' Yamaha V-Star 650 LOL...

52 mpg...(when I stay off of it)

[theophilus]

31. That sounds like a good combo. n/t

[el_bryanto]

9. "If I could afford an electric"

That's it right there. I mean what else needs to be said?

Bryant

[bighart]

10. My reasons for not buying one:

1) Cost. I can't afford to spend more than $15k on a car
2) Range. I can't afford to have 2 cars, one for "daily driving" and one for anytime I need to go out of town.
3) Battery replacement cost. Don't know what the average life span is but sooner or later they will have to be replaced.
4) Style. Let's be honest all of the electrics are butt ugly.

[theophilus]

17. Thank you for listing your reasons. n/t

[rurallib]

35. Agree with your list

let me add that I have yet to hear if batteries have any degradation in the winter cold as most batteries do.

[randome]

39. Especially that last one.

Give me a cool electric convertible. I'm ready to buy now!

[bighart]

49. I shouldn't say all of the electrics are butt ugly, just most of them.

Tesla Motors makes a pretty good looking roadster and the coupe.

[Shadowflash]

69. Here you go!

http://www.teslamotors.com/roadster/gallery/view/5134

[sarge43]

50. Same here.

Except ugly. Don't care about that. However, living in the country the range thing is a big deal breaker.

[Johnny Rico]

11. The reason "I" don't:

Daily commute of over 30 miles each way in the mountains of Colorado, which is why I have a Jeep. I do have a hybrid which I drive during nice weather....and if gas hits $4 or $5 a gallon this summer, I'll be very glad I have it!

[Le Taz Hot]

14. Because at $40,000

it's twice what my 1998 F150 was and that's paid for. I think a lot of people would be willing to get an electric car but $40,000 is waaaaay too much, particularly in this economy.

[Shadowflash]

15. Because I can't spend $40,000 on a car.

[dmallind]

59. Correcting numbers #1 - Nissan Leaf net price is 28550 - less in some states

http://www.edmunds.com/nissan/leaf/2012/options.html?sub=hatchback&style=101397754&trim=sv

This is under the median price of a new car - meaning more than 50% of the cars purchased new cost more $$ - so obviously more new car buyers could afford an EV than could not, because they are actually spending more.

Individuals and one car families with frequent long trips would of course be silly to buy an EV unless they could do enough miles in it to pay for rentals with the fuel savings (which average about 8-10c/miile so not unreasonable).

But #2 - Average annual miles is 13476 http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/ohim/onh00/bar8.htm. Even in truly terrible conditions you can get that in an EV easily - personally I'm getting about 90m but even at the EPA average 73 that's far more daily miiles than are actually driven by huge numbers of drivers. Just think if the average is 13.5, for evetyone who has 25000 just to work and back, think how many there are who never go anywhere near EV max range

Yes if you have only one car and drag a horse trailer around every day for some reason an EV is no use to you yet. But #3 - there are more licensed cars than drivers http://www.statemaster.com/graph/trn_lic_dri_per_reg_veh-licensed-drivers-per-registered-vehicle and since the average household has 1.9 adults http://www.census.gov/population/socdemo/hh-fam/tabHH-6.pdf it is inescapable that the norm is for households to have more than one vehicle.

All this added together means the majority of drivers can certainly fit an EV into their driving. That price jump gets paid back at say 10c mile (11c kWh/4m = 2.75c; 3.79/gal at 30mpg - very much ABOVE average economy = 12.63c) so by the time your battery is out of warranty at 100k you have saved $10,000 on gas alone and at today's prices. Now start adding in oil changes and reduced maintenance from far fewer moving parts at much lower heat. And all those miles are near silent and without a dime to Islamist despots.

But while a majority CAN use an EV they in no way need to, or can. There are even in today's depressed economy 12M new cars sold in the US every year. It will be many years before EVs can meet that. The Leaf is only made at a max rate of 20k per year and is still sold on a waiting list. Even the new Smyrna plant will struggle to make 150k/year. The Volt and Focus and Mitsubishi can make even less. If just 5% of buyers went EV - way less than a tenth of those who could - it would consume all the capacity out there for many years to come. The real question is not why we all don't buy EVs, it's why 3-5% of us don't, when way more than that can afford to and need have no range anxiety whatsoever. Why? Dunno but major factors have to include ignorance, FUD propaganda spread either by venality or ignorance, poor marketing on EV makers' part (polar bears are cute - real info like the above would sell more new technology products though) and just plain inertia.

[Shadowflash]

63. Fair enough.

However, I own two vehicles - One is a Dodge Caravan, which the Leaf cannot replace and the other is a 2005 Dodge Neon that I bought, in immaculate condition, five years ago for $6,000. Cash.

I doubt buying A Leaf at $29,000 would be cost effective even given the price of gas. I couldn't pay for one outright so there would be interest on a loan and my insurance would go way up on a new vehicle. the cost difference between the two, alone, - $23,000 - Will buy alot of gas. Even at $4 a gallon. Figureing in the cost, additional insurance and interest on a loan, I'd have to say my Neon still has it beat. If the Neon starts costing me additional money in repairs instead of just normal maintanence and operating expenses that might be a different issue, however it (and the Caravan) have been pretty much problem free. I wonder what repair bills would look like with an EV?

Maybe, someday, when they show up on the used market I'll look into it but, as of right now, getting one doesn't make financial sense.

[dmallind]

66. No new car will ever be a sound financial call over a 7yr old one , but 12-14MM are sold every year.

If just 500k - about the max for the next decade or so -could be EVs, it would be a good start. Five years from now, your next used car choices would include planty of them.

[uponit7771]

82. Still too expensive for me and the cost benefit still isn't there, I need a minivan not 2 cars

[HughBeaumont]

16. The average American wallet can't afford a 2003 beater, that's why.

Wage Suppression's a bitch, corporatists.

Want us to buy big ticket items? PAY US MORE. There just ain't no other way, honey boo boo.

[NuttyFluffers]

105. And there you go! Minimum wage leads to minimum purchases.

Wanna sell us more? Pay us more!

[sinkingfeeling]

18. Too expensive for me.

[TalkingDog]

19. The 1% can afford them, not us.

My household: 2 cars both around 1998 model. Mine has almost 350K, the other around 250K

They are small, we maintain them, so our gas mileage is better than most new cars. I get about 32-35 mpg.

If I could find a full time job that paid a living wage and was within an hours drive.... lotta "ifs" there, I would love to buy an electric car.

[lacrew]

20. Price

Its the price. Its that simple.

A car for the masses? Lets look at the Volt: Its got essentially two power trains, and 450 extra lbs of batteries (estimated cost $6k-$8k). There is no way it could ever cost less than a comparable Chevy Cruz.

I see alot of problems with electric cars (these problems have stayed the same for 120 years). I think the future is in compressed natural gas. Really.

Lets look at the advantages of an electric car:

Cheaper to operate....and so is a CNG system.

Uses domestic energy.....so does CNG.

Better for the environment - so is CNG.

No range issues, cars can be made dual fuel, much cheaper, little added weight to hurt mileage...and here's the kicker: fleets which use CNG are noticing dramatic savings in engine maintenance. The oil change interval can be increased, plugs don't foul, alot less varnishing, alot fewer problems with sensors involved with emission controls.

Existing cars can be concerted for around $5k...which tells me that a dual fuel car could be mass produced, with no more than a $5k mark-up, over a comparable car...and probably less. Its really a storage tank, tubing, and some PCM changes.

Around 5 years ago, everybody was screaming 'HYDROGEN!'...because they had no idea what they were talking about. I said it was a bad idea...and was flamed. Well, we haven't heard much about HYDROGEN! lately; and, I predict this dalliance with electric cars will not last long.

BTW, before the flame-throwers are put on full blast, ponder this: by my calculation, a Chevy Volt takes 9 lb of coal to charge up, and go 40 miles. A comparable compact can go that same 40 miles on 7 lb of gasoline. What is so much 'better' about that. Really, I am willing to listen to logical arguments...but I can't find any logical reason to pursue electric cars, over CNG...or even gasoline at this point.

[Upton]

21. Price is too high, range is too small..

it's almost as if they purposely made these cars to fail..

[Dokkie]

22. price and design

is the sole culprit. I most likely would be driving a Nissan leaf right now if not for the design, they look at space pods and very small for most Americans. Take a page out of Chrysler and if the design is nice, it bring in more eyeballs to your show room increasing the possibility of a sale.

[Fumesucker]

34. I saw my first Leaf in person the other day..

I was surprised at how big it was, I was expecting a smaller car on the outside..

[dmallind]

60. Very small? Near identical to Focus.

I weigh 280, former competitive weightlifter, and fit into a Leaf very nicelt.

[Dokkie]

92. Hmm

I got to say it looks really small from what I have seen on TV and advertisements for it. I already made up my mind on a 2010 civic but I will give Nissan leaf a 2nd chance to impress me

[IDemo]

23. This is an idea that deserves some attention -

For very much less than the cost of a new vehicle, they are offering a bolt on kit that effectively turns any car into a "hybrid":

The Poulsen Hybrid was designed based on the observation that only 10-15 horsepower is required to propel a compact or mid-size automobile along a level road at a steady 50 to 60 mph leading to the conclusion that this relatively small amount of electric power would be able to cope with 70-85% of normal driving, only aided by the combustion engine during start up and when extra energy is required for acceleration and hill climbing.

The patented system incorporates powerful electric motors which are mounted externally on the rear wheels of a conventional car. It works equally well with rear and all wheel drive vehicles, and gasoline, diesel, or natural gas fuels.

[Motown_Johnny]

29. edit

I asked for a link but found it myself

Thanks for posting... a great idea.


http://www.poulsenhybrid.com/PoulsenHybrid.php

[IDemo]

43. Sorry, forgot the link

This would be a great business to get into if you had the qualifications. They were going to restrict licenses to authorized auto dealers the last time I inquired (a few years back).

[Motown_Johnny]

24. Mitsubishi EV starting at $21,625 with 112 MPGe

The range is only 64 miles. That is the major draw back.

Ford is going to introduce an EV version of the Focus but it is going to cost even more than the Leaf does. They will also introduce the Fusion Energi which is a plug in hybrid but will only get 20 miles on the plug in charge.


Right now they are simply to expensive. We are way behind the curve on this. Maybe if GM had not abandoned the Saturn EV1 then American auto makers would be further along now.

Toyota is also going to introduce an extended range electric car with a fuel cell. I see this as a major step forward. I hope it does well.

How and why natural gas vehicles have faded away I will never understand. The Honda Civic is the only one you can buy in American right now and that technology was very promising. With the cost of natural gas being so low it makes lots of sense. Natural gas also isn't as bad for the environment... unless you count the fraking it takes to extract it.


Give it 6 or 8 years. Things will be different. We are just starting to see the change over from traditional vehicles and it is going to take a while to get going.




http://i.mitsubishicars.com/

[KansDem]

37. Where are the tax credits to buy these automobiles?

Bush gave $100,000 tax credits for buyers of huge SUVs, including the Hummer.

If such a program was offered on electric automobiles, their sales would jump dramatically.

Call Congress!!!

[theophilus]

45. We don't make enough to benefit from tax credits. We

need real money rebates (a check) to help with a vehicle purchase. I feel many are in the same (leaky) boat.

[Motown_Johnny]

48. The program already exists, $7,500 federal tax credit

for buying an EV

http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/taxevb.shtml

^snip^

Federal Tax Credit Up To $7,500!
Electric vehicles (EVs) purchased in or after 2010 may be eligible for a federal income tax credit of up to $7,500. The credit amount will vary based on the capacity of the battery used to fuel the vehicle.

This credit replaces an earlier credit for EVs purchased in 2009.

Small neighborhood electric vehicles do not qualify for this credit, but they may qualify for another credit.




not counting the few state programs that are out there.....

[KansDem]

57. peanuts

From 2002--

SUV, truck owners get a big tax break

By Jeff Plungis, Detroit News Washington Bureau

WASHINGTON — Karl Wizinsky wasn't thinking about buying a new vehicle, and certainly not a big SUV. So why is there a brand-new $47,000 Ford Excursion sitting in his driveway?

Many big SUVs, like the Ford Excursion, can bring a big tax break.
Wieck

He was able to write off $32,000 of the purchase price as a business expense.

"We really did it because it was a pretty hefty deduction," said Wizinsky, a health care consultant in Novi, Mich.

At the same time the tax code sanctions $30,000 write-offs for SUVs, prospective purchasers of a fuel-efficient hybrid vehicles qualify for a relatively small $4,000 tax credit.

A deal to extend similar tax credits to other environmentally friendly vehicles remains stalled in Congress.

It's all legal, and accountants and auto dealers are beginning to catch on.

--more--
http://www.usatoday.com/money/autos/2002-12-18-suv-tax-break_x.htm

also--

Bush gives $100,000 tax break to gas guzzlers, hybrids to get no tax break

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Environmentalists and customers are clamoring, automakers are reacting and, of course, presidential candidates are doing their best to position themselves accordingly on consumer tax breaks for vehicles.

But regardless of all the hybrid hoopla, the U.S. government would still prefer that drivers climb behind the wheel of a fuel-quaffing SUV, given the disparate tax incentives.

Under current federal law, taxpayers buying hybrid vehicles like Toyota's popular Prius or the recently unveiled Ford Escape are awarded a one-time tax deduction of $1,500. That's down from $2,000 in 2003.

As it stands now, the deduction will drop to $1,000 next year, then to $500 in 2006 before being phased out altogether by 2007.

--more--
http://forums.winamp.com/showthread.php?t=194132

SUVs use more gas, hence more oil. Hybrids don't. Therefore, who gets the biggest tax credits? The ones driving the vehicles Big Oil wants driven...

[Motown_Johnny]

61. pretty old info

Talking about being phased out by 2007.

The tax credit makes the new Mitsubishi's out of pocket cost under 20K (depending on your tax bracket).


I agree that Shrub's credit for SUVs was insane. Comparing other credits to that isn't fair.

[KansDem]

68. Then why not make hybrid/electric cars' tax credits $100,000 too?

A lot more of them would be sold.

Cleaner air? Less dependence on foreign oil?

Who could argue with that?

[canoeist52]

38. Those who can afford it don't care about the fuel efficiency.

Those who care about the environment, can't afford it. I'm running a -$40 deficit in my monthly budget. With what could I afford any new $40,000. auto?

[hobbit709]

40. MONEY, MONEY, MONEY! In my case, lack thereof.

Any payment of more than $50/mo will put something right out of my budget. Right now my income is under $800/mo so somebody will have to GIVE me one.

[lumberjack_jeff]

44. If I could afford an electric I would get one ASAP.

Answered your own question.

[phantom power]

46. Reality Check

We're not going to "tech" our way through the array of mega-problems we face, in particular the energy predicament. The American mind-space today is clogged with cargo-cult fantasies about electric cars, nano-manufacturing, and "information" technology that would allow the trajectory of progress to continue just as we have known and loved it. This too, like the end of suburbia, will lead to vast disappointment. We're heading instead into a "time-out" from technological progress, duration unknown, which will probably also result in the loss of some tricks we've already learned. The leading wish-fulfillment fantasy, of course, is that we will change out all the gasoline and diesel cars for electric cars. This is not going to happen. We will be a far less affluent society. There will be much less capital available to devote to auto loans. Our towns, counties, and states are all going broke and will not be able to keep the stupendous roadway system in repair. That's a major reason why we have to return to living in walkable towns instead of disaggregated suburbs, and why we desperately need to repair the regular (not high-speed) rail system.

http://kunstler.com/blog/2012/03/reality-check.html

[tritsofme]

51. If you really believe that silliness.

You could use one.

[tabbycat31]

52. I think the government should buy them first

When they have to replace their fleet of cars, replace them with electrics and jump start the market.

I'd love to see the Post Office buy them

[Schema Thing]

56. agree.

every city in America should own a Volt or 10.

[tabbycat31]

85. my dad has a government vehicle

A 2004 Ford Taurus (he used to get one every 3 years but austerity has kicked in).

When it comes time to replace his car, it should be electric.

[FarCenter]

58. The Post Office has tried electric vehicles

Ford Electric Trucks, 2000-2003

In December 1999, the Postal Service ordered 500 electric right-hand drive mail delivery vehicles based on the
Ford Ranger from the Ford Motor Company in partnership with Baker Electromotive of Rome, New York – the
largest single order of electric vehicles in U.S. history. Most of the vehicles – about 480 – were used in California,
with the remainder used in Washington, D.C., and White Plains, New York. Fifteen groups, including the
California Energy Commission, the U.S. Department of Energy, local air quality management districts, utilities,
and state agencies, partnered together to pay for the extra cost of the vehicles, which cost about twice as much
as gasoline-powered models ($42,000 vs. about $22,000). The first two vehicles were field-tested at the Fountain
Valley, California, Post Office beginning in July 2000; most of the vehicles were deployed from March 2001 to
March 2002.12

In October 2002, Ford advised the Postal Service that it was cancelling its electric vehicle program and that the
producer of the vehicles’ battery pack, East Penn Manufacturing Company, Inc., was planning to end production.
Ford suggested that the Postal Service could purchase replacement batteries for its vehicles in advance and hold
them in cold storage for the future. Rather than face the prospect of unknown numbers of battery replacements
over the life of the vehicles – the original estimate of a three- to five-year battery life had been revised downward
to about two – the Postal Service returned the vehicles in August 2003 to the Ford Motor Company in exchange
for gas-powered Windstars.

http://about.usps.com/who-we-are/postal-history/electric-vehicles.pdf

See also http://about.van.fedex.com/article/cleaner-vehicles
FedEx is trialing 43 all electric and 330 hybrid electric vehicles.

http://pressroom.ups.com/Fact+Sheets/Saving+Fuel%3A+Alternative+Fuels+Drive+UPS+to+Innovative+Solutions
UPS has around 30 all electric and about 400 hybrid electric vehicles.

For a commercial application, the technology has to be less expensive than the alternative to satisfy the cost accountants, it has to be reliable and long-lived with a secure source of spares and maintenance for about 20 years, and it has to satisfy the functional and operational demands of the business.

[TBF]

53. "We" can't afford new cars. nt

[dmallind]

64. 12-14mm sold every year in US. Even now.

[TBF]

70. Top 20% at best and that's using your numbers.

What about the other 80% of the people?

[dmallind]

80. Top 20% of what?

That's ANNUAL sales. The median age for cars on the road is 10. There are about 190mm licensed drivers so about 7% buy a new car each year (not the same people obviously). It's certainly not just the top 20% of people buying them.

[TBF]

94. This article in the NYT actually gives a little higher number -

between 10-14 million per year. But it also projects shrinkage in the US Fleet. I've never been an automobile fan so this does not upset me, but I would like to see mass transportation pick up the slack and I'm not sure that's happening. Anyway, here's the article if you're interested -


U.S. Vehicle Fleet Shrank 2% Last Year, Biggest Decline in Decades -- Report

By JOSH VOORHEES of Greenwire
Published: January 6, 2010

Americans scrapped 4 million more cars and trucks last year than they purchased, the first significant drop in the U.S. auto fleet in more than four decades, according to a new report.
More News From Greenwire

The United States scrapped 14 million vehicles last year while buying only 10 million new ones, dropping the nation's fleet from an all-time high of 250 million to 246 million, according to the Earth Policy Institute.

Lester Brown, the author of the report, said the drop -- the first significant shrinkage the U.S. fleet has seen since record-keeping began in 1960 -- represents a "cultural shift away from the car" and estimated the fleet size will continue to recede during the next decade. He estimated the fleet could shrink a total of 10 percent by 2020.

"No one knows how many cars will be sold in the years ahead, but given the many forces at work, U.S. car sales may never again reach the 17 million that were sold each year between 1999 and 2007," Brown said. "Sales seem more likely to remain between 10 million and 14 million per year."

More here: http://www.nytimes.com/gwire/2010/01/06/06greenwire-us-vehicle-fleet-shrank-2-last-year-biggest-de-80794.html

[Proud Public Servant]

55. I can get a 2010 Prius in my area

For under $20,000.

If a Prius gets 50 miles/gallon, then I'll need 200 gallons of gas in a year. At $4/gallon, that's $800 for gas.
If a Volt tanks up only half as often as a Prius (something I've seen several car sites claim), it'll still need 100 gallons of gas in a year. At $4/gallon, that's $400 for gas.

Spending an extra $400/year on gas, I can drive the $20,000 Prius until 2062 before it starts costing me more that a $40,000 Volt.

[RegieRocker]

65. Range and cost.

They should make one that uses a small gas generator to recharge the battery while parked to extend range. Do this and drop cost and they will have a chance at becoming mainstream for two car families. One hybrid and one full electric.

[Snake Alchemist]

71. Make them 5K a piece and watch them fly out of the dealership. nt

[Motown_Johnny]

74. you can't buy a decent motorcycle for 5k

what makes you think you can sell cars, any cars, for that price?

[Fumesucker]

96. A 2012 Kawasaki 250 Ninja is $4199..

Last edited Mon Mar 5, 2012, 06:25 PM - Edit history (1)

It'll run away and hide from your average car in traffic and gets about 70 mpg..

ETA: They've been making essentially the same motorcycle since 1986 so the bugs are pretty well worked out of this little pocket rocket.

[Motown_Johnny]

98. I knew a little 95 pound, 22 year old woman with a 250 ninja

This was 10 or 12 years ago, so it is basically the same bike you are talking about



It was fine for her, and if you need something you can pick up (one end at a time) and throw in the back of your pickup it is an OK little bike, but it is tiny. I wouldn't want to spend any time on the highway on that thing.

It is a good comparison though. ~$4200 for a tiny little ninja and $5000 for an electric car?

Does that seem reasonable to you?

[Fumesucker]

99. I rode an RD350 many years ago..

It might even have been smaller and lighter than the Ninja but probably similar horsepower, had no problem riding two up on the Interstate.

A buddy of mine borrowed it to ride to Florida once with a group of bikes that were mostly Harleys, the RD was the only one that didn't break down on the trip.

I also had a Honda FT500 single that was about the same horsepower as the baby Ninja but a bit bigger/heavier, no problem on the Interstate with that either.

I don't think you're going to get much of an electric car for five grand.

You can get a Brammo Enertia for $7995, that looks about Ninja 250 sized but with lower performance and range.

[Motown_Johnny]

104. I had a little Yamaha 200 way back when

and it was fine for running up and down Hwy 6, but I-70 was kinda scary ( I was living near Vail CO. at the time)

I needed to keep it at or above 70 mph to keep up with traffic and it was just to small a bike to do that comfortably for any length of time.


I liked my 500. It was fine on the highway at any speed. I never owned a 350 and have only ridden them for "test drives" so I don't really have an opinion there.



My point was that 5K isn't a reasonable expectation for an electric car. I think we can agree that my point is valid even if I didn't do a very good job explaining it.

[Fumesucker]

111. That 200 would be like a 125 these days..

And today's 250 is more like a 400 back then, more than enough on surface streets and adequate on the highway.

I don't really think even $10K is going to be doable for an e-car considering what people expect out of a car these days in the sense of safety standards and amenities.

[Romulox]

110. You'd have to do some SERIOUS calculus to determine if that thing was *really*

more environmentally sound than say a scooter or a moped (when environmental costs from production all the way to disposal are taken into account.) I sincerely doubt it.

[Fumesucker]

112. The scooters and mopeds I've seen typically seem to require a lot of repair..

Meaning they have a short life cycle in terms of miles ridden even if they stick around a long time, they break and the owner just sticks it somewhere and the deterioration commences, gas gums up in the fuel system, the tires dry rot and so forth.

And the upper end scooters are motorcycles as far as cost goes..

The only substantial limitation on EVs these days is the battery technology, everything else is there to make it work.

[ParkieDem]

72. Cost and Range.

I couldn't afford a Leaf or Volt at $35k and $43k, respectively.

Plus, even if I could afford one, they couldn't get me to work and back without recharging somewhere (and I don't know where that would be).

[Marrah_G]

73. I am not buying one because I cannot afford one

If I could afford one and had someplace ( I live in an apt complex) to plug it in I would buy one in a second.

[taught_me_patience]

75. I *might* have to move a fridge once every five years

thus I *need* a big hulking F-150.

[Jack Sprat]

76. Support infrastructure for charging

I like the Volt since it is the only one who can take the long trips. But, apartment living provides me no way of charging and there are no charging stations on the roads. Until such time as consumers feel confident that recharging is readily available when needed, then sales will be very slow.

[Edim]

77. Not ready for prime time.

Hydrocarbons are still superior (range, price...).

[Spike89]

79. Not enough benefit at this point

The idea of a "green" car is so obviously appealing, but even that isn't as obvious as many people assume. There are still (and probably always will be) huge environmental issues with both production and disposal of batteries. When you add the environmental cost of electricity (most is coal generated), the current "greenness" of most hybrids and plug-ins becomes something of a mystery. We still don't know how long the batteries will really last in real world scenarios.

With some gas-only cars getting 40+ and even 50 mpg with no toxic battery technology and a life-span of 200,000 miles or more, the extra costs of an e-car are not likely to ever be recouped by the original buyer, and if they understand that their environmental "savings" might be marginal at best, it doesn't surprise me that most people are still buying the more versatile internal combustion vehicles.

The equation will eventually tilt toward e-cars, but it really isn't a "no-brainer" at this time.

[uponit7771]

81. ***THEY'RE EXPENSIVE AND UNPRACTICAL AND UGLY ON PURPOSE****

I remember whew Merc Diesels used to get 40 - 45 mpg and put out LESS green house gasses than a gasoline engine per CFM.

Merc would HIDE their torque, HP and 60 second ratings so they didn't compete with their AMG series!!!

No really, there's no reason why series electric vehicles don't exist and why we can't get a good 300miles per trip with ready charged battery stations that will change your pack out faster than you could pump gas.

No really good reason other than to prop an industry that would lose a good portion of the GDP if American's did a good 5 year switch to electric vehicles with government subsidized charging infrastructure.

There's also no reason why a series electric minivan or hybrid hasn't been produced either, most people wont need 100% no gas. If people can achieve 20% no gas that would be great, start up the oil burner when I need the xtra HP and turn it off when I'm cruising using some regenerative energy.

[REP]

83. Poor range; few charging stations; no where to charge where I live now

Most current models are a poor choice for the highway up to my house (a narrow, twisting drive up a mountain) except for the Lotus-based Tesla, and I don't have room to garage that many cars at the house (I'd have to keep my Z because I'd still need a car capable of driving hundreds of miles without a charge) and if I'd wanted a Lotus, I'd have bought one. I just can't justify paying that much for something I can't live in.

[Scout]

84. i can't afford to buy ANY kind of new car right now

it's all we can do to keep the one used one running, while we save up money to fix the other used one.

[Taverner]

86. I bought a Leaf. I love it.

Although I can't wait until they give you the option to add battery expansion packs

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

87. 'Cuz our '91 and '93 Toyotas still run fine.

And, I expect they'll outlive both of us.

[Edim]

88. Made in?

I guess Japan. In my experience, the Toyotas from the 90s, made in Japan, are simply undestroyable and need almost no maintenance.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

89. I don't know where. But, I'm guessing Japan. They are indeed indestructible.

Though we have been very good about maintenance.

[Terry in Austin]

90. An electric vehicle is not a "car"

It's a common misconception, but you can't just put another kind of motor into a car body and expect it to be a "car."

"Car" is an institution, not just a machine, and as such there are established social expectations of it -- range, speed, capacity, looks, owning habits, status, etc.

Electric power has a place in our transportation future, true enough, but our present is thoroughly locked into the car system. It co-evolved with the internal combustion engine and is finely optimized for it. We can't expect to be able to just drop in an alt-energy plug-and-play substitute and have the system carry on as usual.

One small example: people talk about having a "highway safe" EV. If we had our priorities straight, we'd be talking instead about having "EV safe" highways.

[semillama]

91. if we could afford a second car, and we had nearby charging stations

then that would be our second car. Our normal car driving rarely gets close to the maximum range of any electric car.

Of course, the key problems for us are stated in the title of my reply...

[workinclasszero]

93. Because they are way too expensive?

The people that can afford the sticker go for the all wheel drive land yachts cause they dont care how much gas costs.

People like me who would absolutely love to have an electric car or even a hybrid are locked out of the game.

[FarCenter]

95. This site says about 57,000 EV cars and trucks, and 29,000,000 eBike, eScooter, eCycles globally

http://www.evsroll.com/Electric_Vehicle_Sales.html

[Robb]

97. "The Volt has been battered by Republicans as evidence of the Obama administration's failures..."

I will buy a Volt as soon as financially possible. Or as soon as my Ford's transmission dies, whichever comes first.

[Flatpicker]

100. GM created the problem

It's simply too expensive for the generation who care to use them.

Nissan hasn't fully committed to the Leaf in the US either. They are a curiosity at this time.
The Prius has been the only alt vehicle to see real market acceptance, but Toyota had to work at it. Then look what happened to them recently.

Just seems that no-one wants to invest in making them successful here.

[Romulox]

108. LOL. nt

[Yo_Mama]

101. Cost Plus Plug-in Difficulties

If you live in an apartment or a condo, you almost certainly don't have a way to recharge the vehicle. That makes it an unfeasible purchase.

If live in a house, range may be a problem, but alternatively, there's the cost. It is hard to afford the car, and when you cost out what you save in electricity versus gas, in the end many people can't afford the EV. Yet.

We'll see how far battery costs come down.

Also everyone should be aware that net driving costs on these cars will rise, because right now the average state plus federal tax on a tank of gas is close to 50 cents. 47 cents to be exact, I think.

We are going to use more of these cars, and the shift to more fuel-efficient vehicles plus partially electric vehicles means that they are going to have to recover the missing revenue somehow.

[rayofreason]

102. "If I could afford an electric...."

Bingo!

When the price becomes competitive and the car becomes reliable then people will buy it. And loading it up with Government subsidy won't help. Right now the subsidies subsidize wealthy types who are quite happy to pay much more per mile than normal folks in exchange for the green brownie/bragging points. So working people's taxes subsidize status symbols for the well-heeled.

Me, I go for used, small, high mpg cars and put the money into replacing old appliances for the home with more efficient stuff. Less flashy, but more practical.

[Jello Biafra]

106. Here's something else to think about

http://www.caradvice.com.au/141944/tata-motors-mini-cat-air-car-to-debut-in-2012/

and look @ the price.......

[belcffub]

107. I read over and over about 60+ mile commutes every time one of these threads comes around

what if people... I don't know... lived closer to where they worked...

I drive a 11+ year old Jeep Cherokee... gets crap MPG... around 18ish... you know what... I could care less... my commute is 3.5 miles... I fill the tank every 2-3 weeks... when I was looking for where to buy a house I looked at where I was working and made the decision to live close to where I work... more people should do the same...

and some days I walk or ride my bike... when the Jeep dies I plan to get something with about the same MPG... heck if gas goes up to 6 great... I'lll pay less for a used truck...

and my environmental impact compared to others drive 60+ miles each day in a car the gets twice the MPG... negligible

[Romulox]

109. People vote with their wallets; "who killed the electric car"? The public. nt

[guardian]

113. Why?

Here's why

1. they cost too much
2. they are ugly
3. they are not practical
4. the manufacture and recycling of batteries pollutes the environment more than gasoline ever will

So if you have money to throw away $40,000 on a second car to feel good about yourself then go ahead. But the are useless as an only car because of the ridiculously short range and the ridiculously long time to charge up to go another 20 miles. It would take you four months to drive coast to coast to coast at 30 mile increments per day with an overnight recharge. Covered wagon was faster in the 1800s.

I guess if you'd call a $40,000 corvette a chick magnet, you could call a $40,000 prius a chick repellent.

Which would you rather have for $40,000?

[Angleae]

114. Take your pick of reasons.

Can't afford a new car.
Range too small.
Nowhere to recharge.