Before the shutdown, Democrats were losing next year’s House race. Now they’re winning

[swag]

http://knowmore.washingtonpost.com/2013/10/15/before-the-shutdown-democrats-were-losing-next-years-house-race-now-theyre-winning/

[appleannie1]

1. shhhhhhhhhhhhh Don't tell them. They are too dumb to figure it out on their own

[Coyotl]

7. Dinosaurs have very poor memory

[0rganism]

2. ignores congressional districts, gerrymandering

If we decided house composition by simple majority vote, the house would have turned Democratic in 2012.

We'll have to win the 2014 vote by a lot more than 5 points to take back the house.

[AnotherMcIntosh]

5. And ignores the pending TPP.

[jeff47]

6. No, it doesn't.

If it was ignoring gerrymandering, why would Democrats need more than 50% of the vote?

Pollsters looked at the 2012 results, and found the 17 closest Republican wins. A swing that could turn those seats Democratic would result in a 5%-7% Democratic swing nationally.

While you can't literally flip the causality around, it is a handy tool for getting an idea of who may win the House without having to poll all 435 districts.

[0rganism]

9. yes it does, insofar as it inverts causality to make its point

I disagree about the "handy tool" part, too. In the absence of a hammer, my shoes don't suddenly become a "handy tool" if I need to drive a nail.

[libdem4life]

3. I can see it now...the state mini-Roves will be pontificating victory and the news anchor will dash

back to her numbers people...uh oh...that was classic. Let's replay that scenario again and again in 2014.

I so hope these numbers are right and hold.

[AnotherMcIntosh]

4. If the candidates act like traditional Democrats, there will be a rout. But remember the TPP.

Anyone candidate running for election while making an excuse for having gotten behind another let's-send-even-more-American-jobs-to-foreign-countries "free trade" agreement, whether (R) or (D), is going to face some backlash.

Not all voters are Democrats or Republicans. There are Independents who also have to be considered.

[BumRushDaShow]

8. The teabaggers don't care because

they were elected for a kamikaze mission. Now it's whether the REST of the GOP care.

[zbdent]

10. Ah, yes, don't forget the power of the "liberally-biased media" helping the "liberals" ...

Why, nobody ever heard of a woman named Monica, a place called Chappaquiddick, rumors of an affair with Marilyn Monroe.

But long gone are the careers of David Vitter, Larry Craig, Donald Trump, Pat Robertson, Joe Scarborough, etc ... remember the demise of Arnold Schwarzenegger's failed run for governor when it was revealed that he fathered a son in an affair?

Nobody followed John Edwards around, and there were no books disparaging John Kerry in 2004 ...

Oh, btw ...