Handicappers: Shutdown Puts House Majority in Play

[cal04]

Republicans lose ground in 14 House districts, according to new rankings from Cook Political Report.
http://www.nationaljournal.com/politics/handicappers-shutdown-puts-house-majority-in-play-20131017

The government shutdown and debt crisis has made 14 House seats more winnable for Democrats, according to new independent ratings released Thursday from The Cook Political Report. There are now—for the first time this cycle—more Republican seats "in play" than the 17 Democrats would need to win in order to take the majority in 2014.

The ratings from the highly regarded political handicapping group, whose founder, Charlie Cook, is also a columnist for the National Journal, is the latest sign that the shutdown has seriously damaged Republicans.

"Democrats still have a very uphill climb to a majority, and it's doubtful they can sustain this month's momentum for another year. But Republicans' actions have energized Democratic fundraising and recruiting efforts and handed Democrats a potentially effective message," Cook's David Wasserman explains. Ten Democratic seats remain "toss ups," meaning the party would probably need to win at least 20 seats to take back the speaker's gavel.

One West Virginia district, currently held by Democratic Rep. Nick Rahall, moved in the GOP's favor, from a rating of "lean Democratic" to "toss up." But 12 districts currently held by Republicans moved in the direction of Democrats, while two districts currently held by Democrats solidified.

[Dawson Leery]

1. Democrats are gaining house seats next year.

We are also gaining Governorships and state houses too.

[CatholicEdHead]

2. Lots of gerrymandering to overcome

even with a majority of the overall vote, the district boundaries favor the GOP until the next time the lines are redrawn in a few years.

[tanyev]

3. If Dems take the House, we need to send flowers and gift baskets to Ted Cruz.

[Art_from_Ark]

4. If the Democrats do take back the House in 2014, it would be unprecedented

No party in the White House, at least in the last 100 years, has ever taken control of the House with a mid-term election (in the vast majority of cases, the White House actually loses seats).
However, the way the Republicans seem to be self-destructing, it just might be possible this time around.