How will ACA affect employment trends?

[Baitball Blogger]

I know a number of people who work for their companies primarily because of the insurance angle. Without this hook, isn't it likely that employers will lose some leverage in holding onto long-term employees who feel they can make the same kind of money somewhere else?

[LisaLynne]

1. Well, I am sort of hoping so.

I've seen a lot of people stuck at jobs that are soul-sucking and borderline abusive because of health care. One fo the things I was hoping the ACA would change was that -- give people options so they weren't basically held hostage by insurance.

[truebluegreen]

2. Imagine how many more people might be willing to start their own businesses

now that they won't have trouble getting insurance...

[Freddie]

3. My daughter now has flexible options

She's an RN, expecting her second child next spring. Husband is self-employed. After baby comes she's probably going to take an as-needed-pool position, which pays more per hour and is very flexible but has no insurance. They can get good Silver HMO plans on the exchange, with a subsidy, for less than she pays to cover just herself through her work insurance now at almost-full-time status.

[kelly1mm]

4. My wife and I are retiring early at the end of the school year (june 2014) due to the ACA.

We thought that she would be working till she was 62 due to having to qualify for retiree medical insurance till Medicare kicked in. Now, with ACA she will be retiring at 46 and I will be 45. Several other people at my workplace are planning on retiring early, again due to ACA.

[Baitball Blogger]

6. Retiring at 25!

How did you do it! You must have been one of the smart ones who didn't invest in Wall Street before it went downhill. Wow.

[kelly1mm]

7. We will be 46 and 45, not 25. We had no children (not by choice), live in a rural area, and

stayed away from debt like the plague. We also are set up to be mostly self sufficient (gardens, chickens, 2 goats, pigs, solar panels, heat with wood from our property, ect.) so have low annual expenses (about 17-23k per year last 4-5 years).

Actually, putting 15-30% of out income into 401k's since early 20's is one of the main reasons we can retire now.

[Baitball Blogger]

12. I have no idea how "25" got there.

Didn't extend my finger far enough.

Good for you. Well planned early retirement.

[lumberjack_jeff]

5. Yes.

It will also promote entrepreneurship for the same reason.

[BlueStreak]

8. Yes. It definitely changes the dynamic. THIS is a big reason the GOP hates it

I'm sure all of have noticed that throughout this whole 3-year ordeal, there hasn't been a single time where any national Republican has actually said in clear, concise, rational terms why "Obamacare" spells the end of civilization. They just recite vague talking points: death panels, socialism, government in the doctor's office, etc.

Why are they REALLY against it?

This is one of the main reasons. How many people do you know who felt like they had to accept really crappy jobs because that was the only way they could get health coverage? That is given employers like Wal*Mart a real hammer over their employees. Enlightened employers with lower-wage jobs are terminating their HC plans, and instead giving that money directly to the employees. Trader Joes is an example. This allows the employee to buy a good plan on the exchange and often qualify for a subsidy, even with the extra allocation from the employer.

Not so enlightened companies are still trying to grind their employees into the ground. But here's the thing. There is simply no reason to work at a Wal*Mart if not for access to their group policy. Which is to say, there is no reason at all to work at Wal*Mart. Most employees will be better off going to another employer that pays more per hour and does not offer HC. They can buy it themselves.

This is an under-reported aspect of the law that will be transformational. It will take several years for this shift to really have a big impact, but it very much ties in with the fast food strikes we are seeing today.

It also ties into the unemployment rate. The corporations that drive the Republicans LOVE an 8% unemployment rate. This is the perfect number. It leaves millions desperate for work, so there is always a source of cheap labor, but it is not so high as to threaten the collapse of our economic system. Those fast food strikes couldn't happen at 8% unemployment. But they do at 7%. And w=hen we get to 6%, workers have some real leverage.

We have to keep the pressure on to block worker visas, and to penalize corporations for offshoring jobs. They will be trying everything possible to avoid getting to a 6% or 5% unemployment situation because they understand where they make the maximum profits. it is at the point of maximum misery to the work force.

[alc]

9. large companies will lose some leverage - mine doesn't think it will lose much

Large companies were the "safer" insurance before. They managed year-to-year cost increases better and helped when the insurer denied anything. When transferring between large companies it's never been much of an issue, but insurance was a deterrence from leaving for a smaller company.

My fortune 100 company has decided it can drop insurance when 30% of other fortune 100 companies do. After consulting with many HR agencies they decided 30% was where there wouldn't be any affect on hiring/retaining (it could be as low as 10% depending on who you talk to). They think they will still have an advantage over smaller companies. They will give all of the employer-paid premiums to the employees as a raise (and still get big savings in HR costs).

Employees will end up losing if they want to keep a similar insurance plan even with the raise equal to employer-paid part of the policy. So they expect a shake up (many people complaining and some leaving) when it's announced but once that's over (6-12 months) hiring and retention will be the same as now.

All this could change depending on how the individual policies work. If individual plans have significantly worse provider networks and prescription drug coverage (very possible) the large company insurance could look even better than before. There's still a long way to go before we know how the ACA ends up working. CEOs, insurers, and health providers will all be looking out for themselves over the next 1-2 years to see how to best take advantage of the ACA (just as they have for 3 years as consumers have sat around waiting for the law to take effect and not paying attention to the 1000s of pages of regulations that industries helped write).

[MineralMan]

10. It could, but it's going to take some time for that to develop.

First, we have to get everyone who wants it signed up for ACA. Then, it will take some time for everyone to understand what it means to them as individuals and businesses. Then, the impact will begin to develop.

[EC]

11. Hopefully bad employers who did offer crappy insurance

but had people staying with them just for that crappy insurance, now they can look for decent jobs and not worry about insurance.