The GOP nightmare scenario
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/post/the-gop-nightmare-scenario/2012/03/14/gIQARLmWCS_blog.html
Posted at 04:40 PM ET, 03/14/2012
TheWashingtonPost
The GOP nightmare scenario
By Jonathan Bernstein
Mitt Romney is still in control of the nomination, and you can still ignore talk of the still-implausible contested convention. But yesterdays victories by Rick Santorum have made another, different GOP nightmare scenario that isnt getting any attention far more likely. snip
What could happen is this: Romney could end up winning the delegate count, securing the nomination. But at the same time, Santorum could rack up enough wins and end up leading in national polls leaving a huge chunk of Republicans thinking hes the rightful winner. This could possibly create a GOP nomination split thats hard to heal heading into the general election.
Imagine weeks and weeks in which Republicans revisit last nights results: big headline victories for Santorum, but solid delegate gains by Romney. Romneys strong states in the rest of the calendar tend to be winner-take-all; Santorums tend to allocate their delegates more proportionately. So Romney could win fewer remaining states but reap far more delegates from them.
Santorum is still having significant organizational difficulties; hell lose some delegates in Illinois because he couldnt file a full slate, and he didnt get on the Washington, D.C., ballot. We dont know much about whats happening with delegate selection in the caucus states, either, as they move from the precinct caucuses to later rounds that actually choose delegates. Santorum is counting on his conservative credentials to help him in those, but Romneys organizational strength and support could trump ideological considerations among delegates, enabling him to do well among them.