Bold prediction: the same people stating that the US and EU would suffer more from

[geek tragedy]

sanctions against Russia than Russia would--usually citing rt.com--if the sanctions intensify, those same folks will then accuse the US and EU of unleashing the shock doctrine and furtively sabotaging Russia's economy via a 'capital strike' to cripple it and punish it for standing up to corporate interests, while also citing rt.com

[Democracyinkind]

1. I don't think that the concept of "shock doctrine" is about sanctions. nt

[geek tragedy]

2. it's not, I'm just predicting what the spin will be. nt

[Spider Jerusalem]

3. The EU would almost certainly suffer more from sanctions.

At least in the short term. 30% of the EU's natural gas comes from Russia, along with quite a lot of its oil. Sanctions on Russian energy would mean that suddenly the EU has to look elsewhere and compete for Middle Eastern LNG with other coulntries like Japan, and to compete for oil on other markets which will have the result of driving up world oil prices (which WILL affect the USA, probably, since the US is a long way from being self-sufficient in oil). Long-term, the lack of investment and economic development in Russia would be punitive, but the first effects would be felt in the West.

[geek tragedy]

4. winter is over, and the EU has reserves built up because North America got all of

Europe's cold air this winter.

Certainly there would be pain for Europe, but right now Russia needs money more than they need Russia's energy.

[Spider Jerusalem]

5. Some EU countries have reserves, others don't (there's no overarching energy policy)

and the construction in a lot of places of gas-fired power stations means year-round demand at higher levels that Norway can't supply on its own (and despite talk of exports there still aren't any moajor LNG shipments from the US).

[geek tragedy]

6. Again, sure there would be inconveniences, but Russia can't live without

money from its energy sales.

Economically, Russia is a cold version of Saudi Arabia. It doesn't have a diversified economy that can take that kind of hit.

[Spider Jerusalem]

7. The global economy can probably take the hit of subtracting Russian gas from the equation...

IF (and this is a big if) the USA steps in to fill the gap with increased LNG exports. The global economy can't take the hit of losing Russian oil, though (the demand vs supply ratio is such that taking ten million barrels a day out of the equation is pretty much guaranteed to trigger major economic contraction and recession in all developed economies as oil prices go back through $150 or $200 a barrel).

[geek tragedy]

8. This is why we tolerate the Saudis and their ilk, nt