Hot War with Russia - The Saker

[autorank]

Hot War with Russia - The Saker
By Michael Collins

What's the likelihood of a shooting war with Russia over Ukraine? What are the military realities that U.S. and it's NATO collaborators see when they consider a real war in behalf of their proxy government in Ukraine? Leading edge blogger, The Saker, provides an extended analysis that answers these questions convincingly. Along with OpedNew's George Eliason's superb analysis, The Saker is taking citizen journalism to new heights. (Image: Thomas Williams)

A short time before The Saker's post, we got a bit of good news. The official propaganda organ of corporate America, Associated Press, ran this headline at 12:38 PM PDT - AP: Ignoring Putin, Ukraine Insurgents to Hold Vote. It doesn't take much to read these tea leaves. Putin is being let off the hook as the evil genius behind the people of Eastern Ukraine. After a little bit of corporate media rehab, Obama will be able to accept Putins ongoing offer to negotiate a reasonable ending to the mess that they reated (unless the neocons sabotage it).

Remembering the important lessons of the Cold War
The Saker at The Vineyard of the Saker

Link: http://www.opednews.com/articles/Hot-War-with-Russia--The-by-Michael-Collins-Brand-Obama_Donbas_NATO-Combat-Caveats_Peace_War-140508-928.html

[autorank]

1. Corporate Media softens its stance

Ignoring Putin, Ukraine Insurgents to Hold Vote
DONETSK, Ukraine May 8, 2014 (AP)

In an obscure government office guarded by a man in a red T-shirt armed only with a stick, two photocopy machines churned out ballots Thursday for eastern Ukraine's referendum on secession, as they have been doing around the clock for days.

In apparent defiance of a call by Russian President Vladimir Putin to put off the vote, insurgents in eastern Ukraine insisted Thursday they will go ahead with this weekend's referendum as planned.

[stevenleser]

3. More like Putin trying to find a way to back off and save face as his economy crumbles from sanction

[autorank]

9. Sanctions won't matter much for long

If they even matter now. Russia and China are closing a massive deal for Russia to supply China with oil and natural gas over the next 20 or so years. That's a pretty nice contract.

Russia is the EU's #3 trading partner and the EU is Russia's #1 trading partner. The total is about $330 bil in 2013. The EU countries are not about to take a nosedive into a recession over Ukraine. They're talking a good game but Merkel, in particular, can count and the sanctions deliver nil while renewed efforts on trade are a welcome event. Russia sells energy to the EU and the EU sells manufactured goods to Russia. With the new China deal, Russia will be able to buy even more manufactured goods.

The sanctions business is a non starter, lots of sound and fury amounting to nothing much that will happen to impact that $330 bil number.

In his farewell address to the nation, George Washington nailed it:

"While, then, every part of our country thus feels an immediate and particular interest in union, all the parts combined cannot fail to find in the united mass of means and efforts greater strength, greater resource, proportionably greater security from external danger, a less frequent interruption of their peace by foreign nations; and, what is of inestimable value, they must derive from union an exemption from those broils and wars between themselves, which so frequently afflict neighboring countries not tied together by the same governments, which their own rival ships alone would be sufficient to produce, but which opposite foreign alliances, attachments, and intrigues would stimulate and embitter. Hence, likewise, they will avoid the necessity of those overgrown military establishments which, under any form of government, are inauspicious to liberty, and which are to be regarded as particularly hostile to republican liberty. In this sense it is that your union ought to be considered as a main prop of your liberty, and that the love of the one ought to endear to you the preservation of the other. " George Washington, 1796

Friendly to all, trade everywhere, no entanglements in foreign wars.

[stevenleser]

12. Russia cannot afford to pay China back. The Chinese only invest where they will get a return.

For Russia to guarantee any money China would invest, they will have to turn over petroleum rights.

[cherokeeprogressive]

2. How long has it been since we've been in a shooting war with other white people?

WWII?

Never happen again.

[Art_from_Ark]

4. It depends on what you consider a shooting war

The US and NATO bombed Serbia for 78 days to intervene in the Serbia-Kosovo war back in the 1990s.

[cherokeeprogressive]

5. I thought about that before I hit "Post my reply!" but I was thinking more along

the lines of rifles, artillery, APCs, and tanks.

[Jesus Malverde]

7. Cruise missiles were in vogue as I remember...nt

[nadinbrzezinski]

6. Wonders never cease, AP

the official organ of DC? For some silly reason I thought that was VOA, but it is great to learn this now.

Secondly, those of us who understood silly shit like Article V of NATO, said that the chances of an armed response to the Ukraine were anywhere from none to not gonna happen... weeks ago.

Now, if Russian troops actually cross into oh Poland or Rumania (actual members of NATO), bets are off.

Oh and I did post not just a recreated post from my blog here, but also posted it at my blog. Since it is a pain to look for it here, here.

http://nadinabbottblog.wordpress.com/2014/04/09/a-tad-on-the-ukraine-crisis/

I guess that masters in History was good. That post of mine is dated April 9... almost a full month ago.

[autorank]

8. Nice blog

AP is the official organ of The Money Party, bet on it. This is the first of a series of mini rehabs of Putin, after the silly demonetization, that will allow Obama to settle this. He should fire Nuland, outright.

The UN articles are largely meaningless. Iraq is the prime exception recently. The "no fly zone" in Libya was a ruse, everyone agrees on that.

In retrospect, the Cuban missile crisis was much more frightening for those of us who lived through it but the people in charge here and in the USSR were much smarter than the respective teams now. Lots of bloviating and positioning and not much wisdom.

[nadinbrzezinski]

11. Well, it's time to trash the thread

Since I am not even talking of the UN here, but NATO.

It is nice to know first what one is talking about. But will leave you with this though, Russia has somewhat of a doctrine, like Monroe. It goes further back than the United States has existed as a nation, since it really started under Katherine, that be Katherine the Great. When you have Putin mentioning it in speeches, that be New Russia, and moving troops, it is a lot more scary than when Kerry made that gaffe about Monroe.

Trust me, that gaffe, which barely registered in the US, was a big deal all over LatAm. Alas we were not moving troops on the chessboard. Putin has been.

As to the AP you said they were the official arm of the US Government. Don't get me wrong, we have one, but that is Voice of America.

And all this talk about rehabilitation of Putin is silly, as well as firing ambassadors, it is almost the kind of conspiracy crap we grew up with back home, mind you...we had Uncle Sam breathing down our virtual necks. But if I replace the mere name of one of the actors to USSR, it's the same crap, different country. It has not even evolved from those fun days when I was in High School.

Sadly, I now trash many of these because the conspiracy does not fit the story. And yes, it is conspiratorial thinking. Oh and lastly, there is a lot more of accidents and improvising in foreign policy than people, who tend to give air to conspiracies easily, will ever admit. Let's just say, blind men and women in the night trying to advance national interests, a description from somebody who actually was involved in intelligence for half his life, used with me years ago. But if you wish to think the US is evil and the USS.. er Russia will save the day, I won't stop you.

Now take out the trash.

[freedom fighter jh]

10. I hope you're right about a reasonable ending to the crisis.

Because if not, we're at risk for a war with Russia. That's about the last thing we need now.