Politico's Poll Showing Democrats In Trouble This Midterm Election is a Total Crock

[red dog 1]

Source:
Politicususa.com
By Justin Baragona
May 19, 2014

This week, political news site Politico released a poll showing that Democrats are at a seven-point disadvantage against Republicans in the upcoming midterm elections.
The poll is supposed to reflect voter sentiments in the most competitive House and Senate races this year.
For the House races. the poll shows that Democrats trail Republicans by 9 points. 39%-30%.
As for the Senate, Republicans hold a seven-point advantage, 43%-36%.
This poll seems to predict a gloomy outcome for the Democrats in November.
It is certainly possible that Republicans can gain control of the Senate and retain their majority in the House.

However, this poll is s total crock.

It is always important to look into the methodology used by a poll to see how credible it is.
In this instance, the poll was tilted heavily in Republicans' favor from the outset, creating the results that we see.
The claim of the poll is to show "competitive" House and Senate races, so the interviewees were only from those areas.
Yet the poll shows that 39% of the respondents are Republicans, 34% stated that they're Democrats....Only 26% identified as Independents.

Compare this with the country at large, where 31% identify as registered with the Democratic Party, 25% identify as Republican, and 42% claim to be Independents.


Read more:
http://www.politicususa.com/2014/05/19/politicos-poll-showing-democrats-trouble-midterm-election-total-crock.html

[Dawson Leery]

1. Politico (R) strikes again.

Rethugs own polling does not show a landslide for them. It shows them favored, but no blowout.

[KamaAina]

2. You could just as easily take out "'s Poll Showing Democrats In Trouble This Midterm Election".

The headline would still be accurate.

[red dog 1]

3. How about "Rasmussen Poll's showing blah, blah, blah"?

But you're right..those Repigs are very deceitful in their polling

[KamaAina]

5. The point was that the headline would read

Politico is a Total Crock.

[Mc Mike]

4. Thanks, red. +1 rec, nt.

[kimbutgar]

6. Politico is a republican Karl rove controlled site

From the beginning they carried the bush administration water. I have rarely if ever believed anything I read in that rag. The Hill is more reliable.

[bigdarryl]

7. And just the other day this poll came out showing different results

http://www.politicususa.com/2014/04/16/democrats-surging-latest-poll-shows-6-points-gop-midterm-house-race.html

[winter is coming]

8. Hence the urgent need for the Politico poll... n/t

[Brother Buzz]

9. Bullshit, the poll was really conducted in RNC headquarters

and they're flummoxed as to why the numbers are so close.

[AnalystInParadise]

10. To be fair

the electorate in 2010 was 35R, 35D and 29I.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2010/results/polls.main/#

I am not buying 39% for the Rethugs, but I am betting 35% or even as high as 36%. For us to be down 1% off of 2010, I consider that possible, even likely. Let's be honest for a second. PBO is tracking at an average of 43-45% in the aggregated polls. That is not a great spot. We are not doomed, we are not screwed, but we have the wind in our faces heading into November. If anyone thinks the Thugs are not going to match the 35% share they received in 2010 or even slightly higher, then that person is deluded. We can keep the Senate if we fight as though we are behind. The House is likely not coming back our way. Too much redistricting, it would take a wave election for us to even get close to taking it back. Right now unless something drastic happens, our majority in the Senate is going to shrink. I don't know how much, but unless we win Kentucky and Georgia then we are set to lose something. Instead of calling every poll bullshit, let's treat it as though it might be true and we work all the harder to hold on to the Senate.

[fried eggs]

11. I'm uncomfortable with shrugging off danger signs

Remember Nate Silver and others use polls to predict election outcomes (and with great accuracy). History shows that the party in power tends to get their asses whipped during the President's second term. Do I want democrats to worry about the midterms? HELL YES! We do not have this in the bag. A little fear might be effective in getting our collective asses to the polls.

[former9thward]

12. The argument the OP makes is a total crock.

Of course you would only poll in the competitive areas if that is where you wanted to find out about voter sentiment. To poll country wide would mean absolutely nothing in specific districts and states.