The Rude Pundit: Yeah, It's Pretty Much Time to Panic Over Climate Change (Miami Edition)

[meegbear]

Last Friday, the Guardian featured a long article by science reporter Robin McKie. The title is pretty much a succinct summary of the entire piece: "Miami, the great world city, is drowning while the powers that be look away." Writing after a visit to Miami, McKie says that, due to rising oceans, "Tidal surges are turned into walls of seawater that batter Miami Beach's west coast and sweep into the resort's storm drains, reversing the flow of water that normally comes down from the streets above. Instead seawater floods up into the gutters of Alton Road, the first main thoroughfare on the western side of Miami Beach, and pours into the street. Then the water surges across the rest of the island."

He lays on the apocalyptic adjectives, calling it "calamitous" and "worthy of the Old Testament." He quotes local professors and scientists on how fucked Miami will be when the inevitable occurs (including a Fukushima-like event possible at Turkey Creek nuclear power plant), and he points out that most of Florida's major political voices are climate change denialists. It's a grim, shit-yourself, panicky article.

Miami Beach resident and Time magazine correspondent Michael Grunwald absolutely is in the "Yes, climate change is real" camp. But his response to McKie is curious, calling it "yellow climate journalism" and an overwrought bunch of hysteria. Yet here's his own description of what occurs, with regularity, in Miami Beach: &quot I)t’s hard to see how some modest sunny-day flooding in my neighborhood at high tide justifies" McKie's warnings.

Now, the Rude Pundit is a former resident of both Florida and Louisiana. He's used to living in low, low land. He's used to floods occurring after storms. But during high tide on a nice day? Is that not seriously scary shit? Sure, sure, one can adjust to anything, but if you don't realize that "once-a-month ankle-deep water" is desperately wrong and deserving of immediate and serious responses, you're kind of deluding yourself.

Also attacking McKie and supporting Grunwald is Discover's Keith Kloor, who dismisses McKie as "hyperbolic" and "shouty." He rightly points out efforts being made already on protecting the area from the effects of climate change, citing a meeting of "the Southeast Florida Regional Climate Change Compact" where "several hundred officials and concerned citizens gathered in Fort Lauderdale (at just a few feet above sea level) to debate and plan for the inevitable rising of the sea." Very calm. Very rational.

Except that a month after that May meeting, on July 1, Miami-Dade County's Sea Level Rise Task Force released a report that said, in so many words, "Yeah, it's time to shit ourselves, panic, clean off, and do something now."

The Task Force, which studied the issue for five years after being put together by the County Commission, lays it out pretty starkly: Sea level rise is happening because of warming oceans and melting ice. "It is a measurable, trackable, inevitable reality. Without innovative adaptive capital planning it will threaten trillions of dollars of the region's built environment, our future water supply, our unique natural resources, our agricultural soils, and our basic economy."

Yeah, we're way beyond poo-pooing the occasional high tide flooding your streets with ankle deep water (which the Rude Pundit still can't get his head around as being something you rationally accept). Maybe we need a few more climate change writers like McKie to get shouty before the water reaches your knees, your groin, your chest...

http://rudepundit.blogspot.com/2014/07/yeah-its-pretty-much-time-to-panic-over.html

[daleanime]

1. K&fuckingR....

[immoderate]

2. Fucking kick!

It is Rudie after all.

--imm

[redqueen]

3. It's been that time for years now.

Unfortunately our pols refuse to even acknowledge that being proactive is even possible.

We must always wait until the most ignorant and apathetic of them are personally and, most importantly - financially - affected, before anybody does much of anything at all.

[easychoice]

19. financially

That is the big word here.I can hear them squealing now.

[BlueJazz]

4. I suspect we're going to see land/home values crash like a 747 with no engines.

Banks: You want to borrow money for land ?? ...I think not!

[KrazyinKS]

6. That's an interesting thought-

I didn't think of that. I guess I should have. Is that why they are spending so much time denying it even exists?

[BlueJazz]

11. Oh yeah and in the future when somebody says..

"I'm under water (regarding home/land)...they'll mean I'm REALLY under water. Sad but true.

[IDemo]

16. That will be after "Why didn't someone warn us?"

[magical thyme]

17. But who could possibly have foreseen this?

[TygrBright]

7. Won't be the first time that's happened in FL...

...but this is on a whole 'nother scale.

Yes, the economic aspects of the sea level rise are just beginning to occur to folks and the denial is thick.

reminiscently,
Bright

[Auggie]

13. Except those in higher elevations, further inland

We know Private Equity Firms have been snatching up huge swaths of rental property ... I wonder if they focus on elevation?

[Mopar151]

49. Is there a way to take a short position on Fla. waterfront?

There is enough stupid involved to make a "crash" of some sort a virtual certainty.

[freebrew]

5. Sounds like it's time to MOVE...

local measures won't stop it. It's GLOBAL climate change, not just Miami.

Dumbasses, all.

[KeepItReal]

8. Article came out the same day LeBron bailed on MIA... Coincidence?

[NealK]

9. Fucking morons.

[Stargazer09]

14. Yep

A picture is worth a thousand words.

[KamaAina]

10. Sounds like Venice's acqua altas

"high waters". Of course, Italy is actually trying to do something about it.

[Stargazer09]

12. K & R for the Rude one

Succinct, as always.

[TRoN33]

15. That is probably the reason why LeBron left Miami...

[NealK]

18. K&R

[HoosierCowboy]

20. "Yeah, it's time to shit ourselves, panic, clean off, and do something now."

You might as well dress up as Moses and point your staff at the Atlantic...

[americannightmare]

21. Wonder if we'll start seeing more FLA license plates here in Portland...

I've been seeing more Texas plates lately, and they sure as hell aren't moving here for jobs. After all, Texas is experiencing an economic miracle, according to Dick Perry (we all know it's B.S.).

[Divernan]

22. Is Las Vegas making book on when the So. Florida property market implodes?

Cause it's not a question of if, but a question of when.

[genxlib]

31. This

Everyone thinks this is a 50 year out problem but you nailed it.

What happens to property values when people realize it is no longer a permanent investment.

Even if you are willing to buy it, who's going to loan you money to be paid back over 30 years.

[Divernan]

33. Yup. Neither mortgages nor flood insurance will be available.

When people flee the heavily populated but extremely vulnerable southern part of the state, the decimation of property tax income to the state government will further compound the loss of quality of life.

[Cha]

23. Kick for Robin McKie.. thanks meeg and Rude!

[tclambert]

24. Two videos, a short one and a long one on this subject.

Apparently Miami Beach suffers some flooding at high tides during full moons and new moons, when the Earth, Moon and Sun are at syzygy (yes, it's a real word, worth 25 points). They say neither of these videos involved any rain events, just the tide.

[genxlib]

32. Thanks for posting that

I happen to be friends with the narrator of this second documentary. He is John Englander, the author of "High Tide on Main Street". I highly recommend his book and his webpage. JohnEnglander.net

He also has a TEDx talk that you can see at his website.

[Divernan]

34. Interesting videos-local officials pumped up to believe they can control the problems.

Conferences w/hundreds of dressed up officials in heavily air-conditioned conference halls - lots of boosterism and Stuart Smiley can-do philosophy. "I'm good enough. I'm smart enough. And doggone it, people like me." There is acknowledgement that current sunny day flooding is costing local governments significant $$$$ this year. Also firm beliefs that various federal agencies will provide lots of assistance.

Heads up, Florida. I think the state needs to implement a personal income tax before turning to the feds for help.

[sendero]

25. I believe in man-made climate change..

.... I also believe that even if we took extraordinary measures tomorrow, it's too late. Our lateness coupled with the FACT that China and most of the developing world is NOT interested in doing anything means guess what, it is coming. So, prepare to the extent that you can, if you own beachfront property in FL I suggest you sell. But dreaming of a political solution is absurd.

[Louisiana1976]

26. That's right. There is no political solution.

[HooptieWagon]

27. There's no engineering solution either.

Florida's bedrock is porous limestone. Even if a dike was built around Miami, the water would come up from below, more than a even a multitude of pumps could deal with. And the amount of fill to raise the land would be enormous. Miami is pretty well fucked, and will have to be abandoned at some point in the future.

[sendero]

28. If there is one state that DESERVES..

.... to be fucked by climate change it is Florida, I will take a perverse pleasure in their comeuppance.

[HooptieWagon]

29. Florida elected Obama twice...

and has sent many fine Democrats to Washington over the years. Yes, theres some douchebags.... what state doesn't have some? Darryl Issa is from ultra-blue California, don't forget. We certainly won't be missing you, please stay the hell out.

[sendero]

46. Electing Obama 500 times..

... can't make up for 2000. Don't worry I won't set foot in SYG hell.

[tclambert]

52. Some scientists have proposed schemes that amount to terraforming the Earth.

(You might call it retro-terraforming.) Pump massive amounts of reflective pollution into the stratosphere, pump massive amounts of seawater into the air to form more clouds, fertilize iron-poor regions of the ocean to promote algae growth that will sequester carbon, and various schemes for storing carbon underground.

These ideas are not impossible, but "not impossible" falls far short of "a good idea." If you mess up the calculations a little bit, they can lead to less than ideal consequences. (By "less than ideal" I mean staggering catastrophe, science fiction apocalypse, extinction level event, and so on.)

[HooptieWagon]

54. I don't know about those.

I was referring to civil engineering solutions... dikes, pumps, fill, etc. None of which would work in Miami.

[genxlib]

30. Don't kill me

I am closer to this than most anybody and I have to say that Guardian article was a little hyperbolic.

As background, I work in the drainage industry and am currently working on projects to alleviate flooding in Miami Beach. We are helping the city to actively design for a future where the water will be higher. I am doing two projects right now where they are pilot projects for much more stringent future sea level conditions. I worked on a project about a block from where those pictures of sunny day flooding were taken.

I follow the subject closely. In fact the gentlemen that narrates the video linked in post #24 is a friend of mine. His name is John Englander and he has a great book and website. I've seen him speak a dozen times and he scares the hell out of me.

Having said all that, the guardian article is cringe worthy. its not that they are over exaggerating the problem. But they do exaggerate the symptoms that are currently evident.

There is no doubt that Miami Beach is the proverbial canary in the coal mine. But that is the thing about canaries. They are relatively subtle signs of grave danger. But Guardian describes the current issues in much more dramatic terms than they really warrant.

[hatrack]

36. " . . . symptoms that are currently evident."

Indeed, currently. And that could never, ever change, could it?

Only gradual, incremental changes will be visible for the foreseeable future, easily alleviated by more concrete, more money and more confidence!

[genxlib]

37. Don't get me wrong

I agree with you. Subtle and slow changes are what we will see in the near term but it will get much worse. I fully expect Miami Beach to be uninhabitable in its present form in the next 100 years no matter how much money they throw at it.

The challenge is to point at those subtle changes and get people to understand that they are a sign of much worse things to come.

Pointing at these current minor issues and calling them "calamitous" merely feeds the deniers claims that we are overreacting.

[Amonester]

41. Stick a copy of this map on your car, truck, or on whatever they can see:

~original

Projected.For.As.Soon.As.Greenland's Glacier will be gone.
And.That's.Pretty.Too.Soon.

[bananas]

39. Thank you for the front-line perspective. nt

[steve2470]

40. Genxlib, what are people saying in the Miami area about it ?

Is there a contingent actively denying this has anything to do with global climate change ? I'm really curious, thank you.

[genxlib]

47. Most people take no notice of it

These issues are fairly localized (ie a few blocks in a few areas of south florida) and fairly rare (a few times a year).

It rarely impacts people directly. Even when it does, most people are oblivious as to why. They just think it rained before they got there or a water main broke.

You have to understand that these areas are very low and regularly flood with rain. some of the areas I work with have roadway elevations under 2.5 elevation (NGVD). To see it on a sunny day often does not really register with people.

It has only been within the last year that people have started talking about it as an aberration.

[tclambert]

53. Sounds like they'll all have to move to the top of Mount Trashmore.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Trashmore_(Broward)

[Warpy]

35. I know I had my "shit just got real" moment

when the story broke about the street flooding in Miami Beach on nice days without a cloud in sight. So far, it's confined to the streets and kept out of buildings by the curbs, but that's just not going to last and we all know it.

If methane keeps getting released into the atmosphere, shit's going to get real for everybody within a mile of the coast. Even those high bluffs aren't going to be any protection as the tides undercut them.

My mother would be thrilled. She hated living in Florida and said she loved to see high rise condos going up because they'd make it sink faster.

[Iwillnevergiveup]

38. Only one thing left, Florida

STAND YOUR GROUND!

[Live and Learn]

42. I fear it is already too late.

Scientists have been telling us for quite some time that we needed to do something and we did nothing.

We needed to start working to change it long ago and even if were possible to save the planet by working together in earnest now, what are the possibilities of that happening?

[Spitfire of ATJ]

43. You know, Limbaugh's house is along the coast over there.

[Enthusiast]

45. I guess that's the only consolation.

[Enthusiast]

44. Kicked and recommended!

It ain't something far off in the future, it is now.

[raouldukelives]

48. K&R When it comes to climate change, we all need to start being rude pundits.

[marmar]

50. In so I can share this with family members who are thinking about moving to S Florida

[Locrian]

51. Miami is screwed

There was a great article in Rolling Stone last year. You can't just put up dikes etc as the underling ground is basically porous. So there's no way to keep out the water.

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/why-the-city-of-miami-is-doomed-to-drown-20130620

Even worse, South Florida sits above a vast and porous limestone plateau. "Imagine Swiss cheese, and you'll have a pretty good idea what the rock under southern Florida looks like," says Glenn Landers, a senior engineer at the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. This means water moves around easily – it seeps into yards at high tide, bubbles up on golf courses, flows through underground caverns, corrodes building foundations from below. "Conventional sea walls and barriers are not effective here," says Robert Daoust, an ecologist at ARCADIS, a Dutch firm that specializes in engineering solutions to rising seas. "Protecting the city, if it is possible, will require innovative solutions."

[HooptieWagon]

55. Yes, exactly correct. nt