Why 2014 Won't Be Anything Like a Blowout Election for Republicans in State Elections

[xchrom]

http://www.alternet.org/election-2014/why-2014-wont-be-anything-blowout-election-republicans-state-elections


Democrat Sara Gesler is a state senate candidate in Oregon.
Photo Credit: saragesler.com

It’s become fashionable for politicos to predict that 2014 will be another boffo election for Republican candidates at all levels.

The New York Times this week reported that the GOP is likely to emerge with new majorities in perhaps nine state legislative chambers. Republicans currently control 60 of America’s 99 state assemblies or senates, and have monopolies on power in 36 states—the most since the 1950s.

But a closer look reveals that 2014 is not going to be a slam-dunk for the GOP in state legislatures. Instead, Democrats stand a good chance of breaking the Republican grip on power in five states—Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, Arkansas, New Hampshire—while maintaining current partisan divisions in others. That’s nowhere close to reversing 2010’s Republican wave, but it’s not merely holding the line, either.

“I think there are a lot of seats in play and a lot of chambers in play on both sides,” said Kurt Fritts, Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee national political director. “I don’t think this is a year where Democrats are necessarily on the defensive. I know we have a lot of offensive opportunities out there.”