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echochamberlain

(56 posts)
Wed Aug 20, 2014, 07:11 AM Aug 2014

The terrible statistical truth about the Republican House "majority"

The 113th Congress is redefining congressional dysfunction, and is likely to go down as the least productive, least legitimate, least liked and most partisan in a-hundred-and-fifty-years.

This Republican House has the least public mandate of any Congress in history. In the 2012 elections, the Republicans won 234 seats to the Democrats 201. But the Democrats won 48.8% of the popular vote, to the Republican’s 47.6%; and received 59,645,000 votes, to the Republican’s 58,228,000. The Democrat’s vote tally was nearly one-and-a-half-million higher. There is no precedent for this, not even close – never has the legitimate preference of the voters been so distorted; the Republicans are in the majority not because of the intent of democracy, but because of the littleness of the process. They have relied on the letter of the law to defy its spirit. If the House simply reflected the genuine will of the people, we would have comprehensive immigration reform, numerous other initiatives and no frivolous lawsuit. The negation of those 1.4 million votes is the most negative development of the modern political age.

The only other time the House majority received less of the popular vote in the last sixty years was 1996, but the disparity was not nearly as egregious: Newt Gingrich’s Republicans retained the majority, despite receiving only 43,447,000 votes, to the Democrats’ 43,507,000.

As well as having the least claim to a mandate, the 113th Congress remains on track to be the least productive in modern history. Just 142 public bills have been enacted into law in the current session, down from the 906 the 80th “Do-Nothing” Congress passed in 1947-48, and the 333 that were enacted during the Newt Gingrich-led 104th Congress of 1995-96.
At this same point in the last Congress, which set the record for the fewest bills passed into public law in the modern era, 151 bills had made it into law. Here’s a historical record of laws enacted by Congress:

~ 113th Congress (2013-14): 142 public laws (as of July 31, 2014)
~ 112th Congress (2011-12): 283 public laws (total)
At this SAME point in the 112th Congress: 151 (as of July 30, 2012)
~ 111th Congress (2009-10): 383
~ 110th Congress (2007-2008): 460
~ 109th Congress (2005-2006): 482
~ 108th Congress (2003-2004): 498
~ 107th (2001-2002) : 377
~ 106th (1999-2000): 580
~ 105th (1997-98): 394
~ 104th (1995-96): 333
~ 103rd (1993-94): 465
~ 102nd (1991-92): 590
~ 101st (1989-90): 650
~ 100th (1987-88): 713
~ 99th (1985-86): 663
~ 98th (1983-84): 623
~ 97th (1981-82): 473
~ 96th (1979-80): 613
~ 95th (1977-78): 633
~ 94th (1975-76): 588
~ 93rd (1973-74): 649
~ 92nd (1971-72): 607
~ 91st (1969-70): 695
~ 90th (1967-68): 640
~ 89th (1965-66): 810
~ 88th (1963-64): 666
~ 87th (1961-62): 885
~ 86th (1959-60): 800
~ 85th (1957-58): 936
~ 84th (1955-56): 1,028
~ 83rd (1953-54): 781
~ 82nd (1951-52): 594
~ 81st (1949-50): 921
~ 80th (1947-48): 908

As well as being, or as a consequence of being, the least legitimate and least productive House, only 7% of Americans have “a great deal” or “quite a lot” of confidence in the institution, according to a recent poll by Gallup. Even after many years of brutally unpopular Congresses, that’s the lowest level ever recorded, down from 10% in 2013. It’s not just the least popular Congress, though: It’s also the least popular institution of any kind ever recorded by Gallup.

The United States Congress hasn’t been this polarized since the North and South faced off against each other in the Civil War. And it won’t get better any time soon, according to Keith Poole, a political scientist. Poole and NYU professor of politics at Howard Rosenthal collected every roll call vote dating back to the very first Congress in 1789. The two political scientists used the data to create a kind of ideological roadmap, plotting votes along the political spectrum. They found that the legislative branch hasn’t been this polarized in 130 years.

This unprecedented polarization was also recently highlighted in a report titled, “Vital Statistics on Congress,” published by the Brookings Institute. The report documents ideological polarization of congressional coalitions from both parties since the 1940s. It shows the parties have evolved in opposite directions as time has progressed. While the Democratic Party has been become more liberal relative to where it was in 1948, the Republican Party has become more conservative at a much faster rate.

Last year, in the House, only two Democrats were more conservative than a Republican—and only two Republicans were more liberal than a Democrat. The ideological overlap between the parties in the House was less than in any previous index. Half of the 10 House Republicans who have announced their retirement—Frank Wolf in Virginia, Jim Gerlach in Pennsylvania, Jon Runyan in New Jersey, Spencer Bachus in Alabama, and Tom Latham in Iowa—rank in the top fifth of moderate Republicans.

Not only is this Congress the least legitimate, least productive, least liked and least bi-partisan, it is also the wealthiest. More than 50% of the U.S. Congress are millionaires. The median net worth of House members is $896,000. Thousands of companies are given billions of dollars worth of government contracts every year, and many will often lobby Congress directly. All the while, lawmakers have stock holdings or other financial relationships with these corporations and associations, with connections, either directly or through family, to substantial interests in media, big pharma, tech, and banking.

Such wealth, both personally and from backers, is more necessary than ever to increase the odds of entering Congress. Despite a reduction in the number of competitive districts because of redistricting, $923.5 million was spent on House races in 2012, up almost $400 million in 10 years according to data provided by the Campaign Finance Institute. The average spending for a Democratic member was about $1 million and $1.3 for a Republican.

The likely consequence of this growing extremism and appalling dysfunction? According to almost every poll, the status-quo will prevail in November – and remain until redistricting is possible again, after the next census, in 2020. FROM: http://sheppardpost.com/

13 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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The terrible statistical truth about the Republican House "majority" (Original Post) echochamberlain Aug 2014 OP
Very nice! Pholus Aug 2014 #1
k&r for the truth, however depressing it may be. n/t Laelth Aug 2014 #2
"... the Democratic Party has been become more liberal relative to where it was in 1948 ..." Scuba Aug 2014 #3
That's a load of horseshit is what it is. stillwaiting Aug 2014 #4
Sign me up. antiquie Aug 2014 #8
Given the Dixiecrats were around back then socially it isn't that hard to imagine. Johonny Aug 2014 #12
It's a reflection of a lack of will, to help DesertFaux Aug 2014 #5
And Here in Virginia ChristianSocialist Aug 2014 #6
you're welcome. echochamberlain Aug 2014 #7
And what will... ReRe Aug 2014 #9
+1 freshwest Aug 2014 #13
Largely the fault of Northerners & Midwesterners who think the national Republican party is ... dawg Aug 2014 #10
And many of this Congress' laws are like naming schools and such. joshcryer Aug 2014 #11
 

Scuba

(53,475 posts)
3. "... the Democratic Party has been become more liberal relative to where it was in 1948 ..."
Wed Aug 20, 2014, 08:04 AM
Aug 2014

Huh? What? Just how did they determine that?


http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/?pid=29599

Democratic Party Platform of 1948
July 12, 1948

We shall enact comprehensive housing legislation, including provisions for slum clearance and low-rent housing projects initiated by local agencies. This nation is shamed by the failure of the Republican 80th Congress to pass the vitally needed general housing legislation as recommended by the President. Adequate housing will end the need for rent control. Until then, it must be continued.

...

We favor the reduction of taxes, whenever it is possible to do so without unbalancing the nation's economy, by giving a full measure of relief to those millions of low-income families on whom the wartime burden of taxation fell most heavily.

We shall endeavor to remove tax inequities and to continue to reduce the public debt.

...

We advocate such legislation as is desirable to establish a just body of rules to assure free and effective collective bargaining, to determine, in the public interest, the rights of employees and employers, to reduce to a minimum their conflict of interests, and to enable unions to keep their membership free from communistic influences.

We urge that the Department of Labor be rebuilt and strengthened, restoring to it the units, including the Federal Mediation and Conciliation Service and the United States Employment Service, which properly belong to it, and which the Republican 80th Congress stripped from it over the veto of President Truman. We urge that the Department's facilities for collecting and disseminating economic information be expanded, and that a Labor Education Extension Service be established in the Department of Labor.

We favor the extension of the coverage of the Fair Labor Standards Act as recommended by President Truman, and the adoption of a minimum wage of at least 75 cents an hour in place of the present obsolete and inadequate minimum of 40 cents an hour.

We favor legislation assuring that the workers of our nation receive equal pay for equal work, regardless of sex.

We favor the extension of the Social Security program established under Democratic leadership, to provide additional protection against the hazards of old age, disability, disease or death. We believe that this program should include:

Increases in old-age and survivors' insurance benefits by at least 50 percent, and reduction of the eligibility age for women from 65 to 60 years; extension of old-age and survivors' and unemployment insurance to all workers not now covered; insurance against loss of earnings on account of illness or disability; improved public assistance for the needy.

We favor the enactment of a national health program far expanded medical research, medical education, and hospitals and clinics.

We will continue our efforts to aid the blind and other handicapped persons to become self-supporting.

We will continue our efforts to expand maternal care, improve the health of the nation's children, and reduce juvenile delinquency.

...

These are the aims of the Democratic Party which in the future, as in the past, will place the interest of the people as individual citizens first.

stillwaiting

(3,795 posts)
4. That's a load of horseshit is what it is.
Wed Aug 20, 2014, 08:25 AM
Aug 2014

I would also love to know just how they came to that brilliant deduction...

Some people are catapulting the propaganda it would seem.

Johonny

(20,851 posts)
12. Given the Dixiecrats were around back then socially it isn't that hard to imagine.
Wed Aug 20, 2014, 11:10 AM
Aug 2014

FDR did round up the Japanese and put them in camps during WWII. The army was segregated as well and let's not forget the heavily democratic south was both more conservative on labor and social issues in this era.

The "liberalism" of the Democrats is all relative. The whole western world has moved to more liberal positions on gay rights, woman's rights, and subjects of race. It would be only natural Democrats would be "more" liberal on these issues than 1948. Meanwhile it is mind boggling that Republicans are still in 1890 in both their economic and social views given how the moral attitude of the western world has changed since that time period.

Democrats haven't become MORE liberal, society as a whole has become more liberal. The fact that during that trend a major political party has bucked this trend and maintained power is the surest sign of the Oligarchy at work

 

DesertFaux

(15 posts)
5. It's a reflection of a lack of will, to help
Wed Aug 20, 2014, 09:19 AM
Aug 2014

They on the other hand will control the appearance of callousness and state its because they care about the american people, and their freedom, and Obama is a dictator, that's why they don't do anything. It's always the opposite of reality with these guys, they get away with it because the corporate media is so cowed and their constituents think it's "politics". No, it's really men who are accomplished manipulators, who have no desire to invest in humans, using our democracy for themselves.

Thanks for the sterling post!

echochamberlain

(56 posts)
7. you're welcome.
Wed Aug 20, 2014, 09:38 AM
Aug 2014

I just think its crazy that the Dems haven't had a public narrative from the start, defining the 'majority' as the fake or phoney or technical majority. Hardly anyone knows about it.

ReRe

(10,597 posts)
9. And what will...
Wed Aug 20, 2014, 10:00 AM
Aug 2014

... it say about the American electorate if they don't completely turn the tables this fall? The most brain dead people of all time, second only to Germany before WWII?

dawg

(10,624 posts)
10. Largely the fault of Northerners & Midwesterners who think the national Republican party is ...
Wed Aug 20, 2014, 10:09 AM
Aug 2014

too extreme, but nonetheless supported Republican candidates for their state houses, allowing those states to gerrymander districts based on the 2010 census results.

I know, in the grand scheme of things, that the Southern states have much more to answer for. But until we can at least stop electing Republican governors and legislatures in places like Wisconsin, Michigan, and New Jersey, it will be hopeless for us to regain a working majority in Congress.

joshcryer

(62,270 posts)
11. And many of this Congress' laws are like naming schools and such.
Wed Aug 20, 2014, 10:14 AM
Aug 2014

Acknowledging people. Nothing substantive at all.

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