Sam Wang forecasts that Dems have 70% chance of retaining Senate
Forecast Shows Democrats Outperforming Expectations
Sam Wang has updated his Senate forecast which shows Democrats with a 70% probability of retaining control of the upper chamber.
One reason his forecast is more favorable to Democrats than others is that he's relying more on actual polls than so-called "fundamentals."
"This year's Senate race is harder than any electoral forecast that the other forecasters have ever had to make. To be frank, 2008 and 2012 were easy. My own experience is guided by 2004 Presidential race, which was as close as this year's Senate campaign. In 2004, I formed the view that the correct approach is to use polls only, if at all possible."
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2014/08/28/forecast_shows_democrats_outperforming_expectations.html