Wolf Headed for Landslide Win in Pennsylvania

[DonViejo]

A new Franklin & Marshall College poll in Pennsylvania finds Tom Wolf (D) with a 25-point lead over Gov. Tom Corbett (R) in the race for governor, 49% to 24%.

Said pollster Terry Madonna: "The big takeaway here is that the race has not changed because Corbett has not changed. His narrative remains the same, and that's the fundamental problem for his campaign."

Corbett would be the first Pennsylvania governor ever to be denied a second term.

###

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2014/08/28/wolf_headed_for_landslide_win_in_pennsylvania.html

[enough]

1. I hope this is right, but saying it out loud makes me nervous here in PA. (nt)

[Dont call me Shirley]

2. Corbett was recently taped indicating inducing low voter turnout.

Heard it on Thom Hartmann today.

[Enthusiast]

3. I would prefer it was much closer.

We don't want to compromise the turnout due to overconfidence.

[packman]

4. Good point-

However, you remind me of Joe Gibbs coach of the Redskins way back when complaining after winning the Super Bowl that it meant that his players now had less time than the rest of the NFL to rest up. Personally, I rejoice in those double digit leads over Republicans.

[Enthusiast]

5. I'd like to beat 'em all to a bloody pulp.

[Avalux]

14. Not going to happen...

Pennsylvanians are pissed and WILL get rid of Corbett. My family is still there (I left years ago), they are definitely motivated.

[Enthusiast]

19. Happy to hear it.

[BlueCaliDem]

27. That Pennsylvanians even fell for Corbett's more gentler Republican campaign is beyond me.

How could they, after the way Republicans have shown to be loyal to only the wealthy and well-connected? And after eight years of G.W. Bush, Cheney and twelve years of disastrous Republican policies in the U.S. Congress, why would anyone still trust anything any Republican says and not fight hard to ensure no Republican ever gets elected again?

It just boggles the mind.

That's why I'm so happy to read that Pennsylvanians are set to correct the mistake they made in 2010, and will vote for Wolf.

[Enthusiast]

33. How could they? It comes down to the massive advantage in GOP propaganda.

The ears are assaulted by constant right wing talking points. The voters hear these Republican memes repeated thousands of times. The liberal side is never heard at all. The Fairness Doctrine served a vital purpose.

[BlueCaliDem]

34. You're right. The Fairness Doctrine might not be the cure-all, but it would give Liberals a

fighting chance - however small - against the barrage of Right-wing/Libertarian propaganda the American people are being inundated with.

[drm604]

50. It's the 'T'. The areas outside of the Philly and Pittsburgh areas.

That part of the state is very conservative.

[rogerashton]

51. don't forget --

It is often said that Pennsylvania comprises Philadelphia in the east, Pittsburgh in the west, and Alabama in between, but that's really not fair to Alabama.

[Cosmocat]

31. This is a LITTLE different turnout issue

Wolf is not up 20 points in a 60 to 40 kind of way. He is up at 49% because REPUBLICANS aren't there for him. It is going to tighten a bit, but frankly, this is one elections where democrat are counting on a low republican turnout.

[xxqqqzme]

6. The Wonder boy rethuglican

governors, who were all promising potential presidential material, have not fared well the last 4 years.

Hope this proves true and corbett is defeated.

[johnp3907]

7. I'm keeping my fingers crossed!

And my toes....and my eyes....anything crossible is crossed!

[Hulk]

8. Tough bit being exposed for who you are...

This is the biggest problem with these repuKKKes...they exposed themselves, and in a state where everyone isn't a pro-lifer or gun toting red neck...they are toast when the bill comes due.

[happyslug]

9. Given that PA Governors could NOT succeed themselves prior to 1970, not much of feat.

Yes, Milton Shapp was the first Governor PERMITTED to run for re-election without skipping a term in office since 1874. Thus we have had Shapp, 1970-1978, Thornburg, 1978-1986, Bob Casey Sr, 1986-1994, Ridge 1994-2002, and Rendall, 2002-2010.

Yes, technically, the dates should be 1971-1979. 1979-1987, 1987-1995, 1005-2003 and 2003-2011, but I am going by ELECTION years, not inauguration years. And I know Tom Ridge resigned in 2001 to take a position with the Bush Administration, but the election cycle was NOT affected by that decision.

Between 1874 and 1970, only two men served two four year terms as Governor:

Gifford Pinchot served two terms, 1923-1927 and 1931-1935
Robert Patterson served two terms, 1883-1887 and 1891-1895

Prior to adoption of the State Constitution of 1874, the terms of office was only three years. The Governor at the time of the adoption of the New Constitution was permitted to run for a four year term at the end of his term of office, which was reduced to two years so the Governor race would be two years before and after a Presidential election year:

John F. Hartranft served two terms, 1873-1875 (A two year term) and 1875-1879 (a four year term).

Prior to 1874, under the Constitution of 1830, Four Governors were elected to served two THREE year terms, One of these four Governors was elected twice but only served a few months of his second term of office:

Andrew Gregg Curtin 1861-1864, 1864-1867

John W. Geary 1867-1870, 1870-1873

David L, Porter, 1839-1842, 1842-1845

Francis Rawn Shunk, 1845-1848, January 1848-July 1848, resigned but died 11 days later.

William F. Johnston succeed Shunk in 1848. The Election for Governor was then held that fall and he was elected for a full three year term, serving till 1851. Thus he served 3 1/2 years.

Prior to the 1830 Constitution, Two other Governors served two terms (All terms were three years in length), and three three terms, with Thomas Mifflin not only serving three terms as Governor, he was the last "President" of Pennsylvania before the office of Chief executive was named "Governor" in the constitution of 1791. Thus Mifflin served as the Chief Executive from 1788-1799, a total of 11 years.

Yes, it is a lot harder to get elected after leaving office but NOT impossible as Governor Pinchot and Patterson shows. On the other hand, it is a lot easier to succeed yourself as the list of Governors before 1874 and after 1970 shows,

[malthaussen]

10. Be nice if we could win the legislature, too.

Minor rant here: I get irritated at the concentration on the Big Executive races, when the laws are made by the legislatures, and it is them the Democrats need to seize to have a chance of advancing Progressive programs. Think about what happens if the Republicans take the US Senate in 2014: basically, our Chief Executive becomes a veto-machine. Of course it is important to have an Executive who is in harmony with the program, but without control of the legislature, nothing good can come. Only more dreary years of damage control.

-- Mal

[tblue37]

24. +1,000,000,000! I wish more Dem strategists & voters understood this, because

the Republican Party and their voters certainly do.

The Republicans also understand, as Dems seem not to, that local and state elections are important, too. Dems seem intterested only in voting for presidents and governors--and not always even governors.

[MH1]

30. I wish Dem voters just understood that they need to vote in EVERY election, EVERY year.

That would go a LONG way toward turning the tables.

[BlueCaliDem]

35. Thank you! Thank you! Thank you!

The real power to change our circumstances lies within State legislatures and both chambers of Congress - not with the Executive. This cannot be repeated enough.

[markmyword]

11. Double Digit Leads!

I hope this is true.

EVERY gubernatorial race with a Republican governor should have a HUGE. HUGE gap with Democrats leading in double digits!

We need wins in Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Ohio.

Democrats need to make ads telling what the Republicans stand for, no minimum wage, no health care, no unemployment, no bargaining power, no public schools, no Social Security, no free choice, breaking unions, etc, etc.

Then list tell what they ARE for, tax breaks for the 1%, outsourcing jobs! letting companies launder drug money! putting money in the Caymen Islands, doing the Koch brothers bidding, private retirement, privatizing everything that the government does.

Hammer, hammer what they stand for and what they are doing to this country and it's people.

[Spitfire of ATJ]

12. Toast....

http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/pennsylvania-voter-id-law-dead-and-buried

[srican69]

13. no wonder that bloody asshole decided to expand Medicare

[tblue37]

25. Medicaid, actually. nt

[BlueCaliDem]

36. Too little, too late. Pennsylvanians are on to him and his last

altruistic act for the poor and elderly to accept Medicaid-expansion as governor isn't going to make up for nearly four years of arrogant, disastrous, discriminatory RW/Koch Bros policy that's hurt such a large segment of his constituents.

[bigdarryl]

15. The election is in November not September JESUS!!!!

[RobinA]

16. PA Resident

I've been hearing for at least a year now that Corbett is going to get trounced. While I believe that he will lose, I don't think it will be the landslide everybody predicts. He's basically done what he said he was going to do, so what are all the people who voted for him going to do? Stay home?

Maybe I've overestimated the voter, but the guy did what they put him in office to do - not raise taxes. Sure, the place is a mess due to no money to fix things...but hey. What does the Pennsylvanian from Elk County, the voter that elected Corbett, care about that. The important thing to them is no more welfare money for minorities to but Cadillacs with.

[BumRushDaShow]

28. His base is pissed at him for the Sandusky mess

and the damage that this fiasco and tragedy did to the Penn State juggernaut (including to the god of many - "Joe Pa&quot . And yes, I expect many will either "stay home" or will NOT vote "the top of the ticket" (i.e., they will "vote township/borough/county" and for their State reps & State Senators, but not governor).

And as FYI, the population of the entirety of Elk County (31,500) is about the same as just 1 of the 40 neighborhoods in the city of Philadelphia (e.g., Roxborough has a population of ~30,900). And yes, I am a life long, born and bred resident of Philadelphia.

Because of the school funding nightmare, which impacted Philadelphia most severely, I am hoping that residents here in Philly are pissed enough to get to the polls. There generally tends to be a slightly higher turnout from the city during gubernatorial races vs other non-presidential years, despite this still being held "off-year". And because Wolf made a concerted and concentrated effort to woo Philadelphia via mega amounts of radio & TV ads (versus the little that Onorato did here 4 years ago, where no one here knew who he was), then I think the outcome will be quite different from 2010.

The other good news that I heard this morning was that there is a possibility for the Democrats to take over the State Senate and that would definitely be a coup if we can get the turnout increased from Dems statewide.

[RobinA]

48. Interesting Take

I'm from the Philadelphia suburbs. The R suburbs. I think Paterno got a bum deal, but I am not Penn State, although I do have some in the family. I never would have thought to relate Corbett the governor to the Penn State mess, although I am aware of the connections. I don't like the man, but to me his biggest sin among many is Medicaid.

[BumRushDaShow]

49. I have conservative friends

(we avoid talking "politics&quot who are alumni and hard-core Penn State Nittany Lions fans to boot (one used to drive out there every year to go to the Homecoming game and his daughter starts there this year). They were pissed at what happened on campus and the mishandling of the whole thing, including the fact that Corbett basically gave Sandusky a pass, with the result years later basically destroying the lives of innocent children, the school's football franchise, their 60+ year coach, and the school's reputation.

The Medicaid issue is not on a conservative's radar as they feel it is nothing more than "welfare" and "takes money" from themselves to "give to" others. I have 2 sisters living in red & formerly red (now purple) 'burbs and the sentiment there was that Corbett never seemed to connect with the eastern part of the state. And oddly enough, some of the folks who actually got impacted by that Voter ID mess WERE elderly republicans or republican-leaners (like the father of CNBC's Jim Cramer, where Cramer bitched up a storm about his father not being able to get an ID due to the lack of a license & citizenship issues, and after whining enough, one was finally obtained). But that whole Voter ID fiasco left a mark.

[Cosmocat]

32. On average, people could really give a shit about taxes, fracking, the lottery, education

the issues, here in this state, he could do everything he has done and would be cruising to an easy re-election right now.

What people can't abide, is his being the man who drove the firing of Joe Paterno.

The PSU fan base is probably the most significant group within the republican base in this state, and these folks would vote for Corbett in a heartbeat, without hesitation until he drove the firing of Joe paterno.

I know MANY, MANY reliable Rs who won't vote for him, flat out. Not going to do it. Some will vote Wolf, some won't. And for one reason - canning Paterno.

[BlueCaliDem]

37. Unbelievable that the justified firing of a coach who allowed Sandusky to prey on young boys

is what gets Republicans riled up not to vote for Corbett.

Not the decrepit state of the poor, unemployed, and elderly.

Not the discriminatory RW policies that were chipping away at civil and voting rights.

Not the $1 billion he's cut from education.

No. His greatest "sin" was to fire an enabler of a pedophile.

Republican voters never fail to disappoint and underachieve as a human being.

[Cosmocat]

39. Yep

The voter ID law ... I work a poll in a republican majority precinct, and we lost voters over it, older folks who just threw the towel in. And most of them were Rs, to be honest.

I battled this thing with my state rep. All of our Rs, they are obsessed over Philly, they know that is where the Ds win the state level races. So, they do everything they can to try to put a dent into it.

We were going back and forth on it, and he was all concerned about Philly. I told him, I know people who have voted for HIM regularly who were lost because of it, and he didn't even bat an eye, just concerned about Philly.

I fought it the best I could, but people here really could care less, sadly. Fortunately it got tossed in appeal.

A bit of a rant, but Rs are what they are, party loyal with no regard to their best interests.

It might be overcome if Ds were more reliable to vote and everyone else tuned in, but neither happen often enough.

[ctsnowman]

41. X 1000

[BumRushDaShow]

42. "the... firing of a coach...is what gets Republicans riled up not to vote for Corbett."

State College and the surrounding area's counties, are part of a "company town". It's like GM but in central PA. The negative press, the fines against the school, the post-season appearance ban against the Nittany Lions, removal of over a decade's worth of "wins" on the official team record, the scholarship and recruiting restrictions - all served to torpedo an "industry" of small businesses in that area of the state that was fed by college football. They don't care about the "why" but only that they were impacted in the pocketbook when their livelihood was taken away along with college football's "winningest coach" Joe Paterno.

As an analogy, just the fact that the Eagles moved their training camp back to Philly from Lehigh University up in Bethlehem, PA last year (after 70 years - 17 of which had been at Lehigh), was enough to really impact the Allentown/Bethlehem metro area businesses that relied on the dedicated fans, and the whole pro football infrastructure that would descend on them every summer and provide income. I remember them showing pictures up there of the empty restaurants and stores that used to be swarming with football fans. It would probably be similar if baseball teams decided to ditch their Florida or Arizona training camps.

In the rethug voters' minds, Paterno wasn't the pedophile, Sandusky was, but Corbett (as state AG) had the chance to get rid of Sandusky back when the issue first arose and he punted instead. So they are going to punish him.

[Cosmocat]

47. Corbett has managed to be wrong on EVERY side of the Sandusky situation

As noted, when he was AG, he didn't pursue the POS because he knew that would put him in trouble with the hard core R base of PSU fans trying to get elected governor ...

But, I can tell you as someone in that company town area, the throught process is MUCH shorter than if he would have gotten Sandusky when he was AG, people hold him accountable for firing JoPa.

THAT is why he is going to get bounced.

[santroy79]

46. lucky for us those Republicans are idiots

because Corbett was in on the cover up of Joe Paterno.

[riqster]

17. Only if our peeps go to the polls.

[AlinPA]

18. I doubt that it will be that easy. The stupid voters here in PA voted in a teabagger State House,

a teabagger State Senate, 13/18 teabagger US reps, a teabagger US Senator and the moronic teabagger governer.

[dsc]

22. the first two are from gerrymandering

I don't know your exact numbers but in NC we are split 4 dem 9 gop having got over half the vote entirely from gerrymandering. But for a race Dems won by about 700 votes it would have been a 3/10 split.

[SunSeeker]

20. Dems must VOTE!

Please oh please oh please, VOTE.

[rocktivity]

21. Get 'er DONE, PA Dem voters -- remember the Turzai!

rocktivity

[Cha]

23. THank you, Pennsylvania! mahalo Don

[Laelth]

26. Excellent. k&r n/t

-Laelth

[Wounded Bear]

29. Good news...

but how does this affect the down ticket races? Any chance we could flip some Reps?

[BumRushDaShow]

43. Here's an analysis

Democrats have ambitions to flip the state Senate. To do that, they must hold two districts in western Pennsylvania that are trending Republican, win two seats in southeastern Pennsylvania and take the new 40th District in the Poconos. Then the chamber would be knotted at 25 and a new lieutenant governor - presumably, Wolf's running mate, Democrat Mike Stack - could break the tie.

So goes the Democrats' theory. For it all to work, they need a landslide victory in the governor's race. The thinking is that the party's "base" voters will turn out in higher-than-usual numbers for a midterm election, motivated by a desire to evict Corbett, and then also vote Democratic for state Senate. In addition, strategists say, some committed Republicans might stay home if Corbett's poll numbers don't improve. That would make this year different from the midterms of 2010, when Republicans, fueled by the rise of the tea party and anger about President Obama's health-care law, took control of 23 state legislatures.

Polls this year suggest that, in most cases, voters will choose their state lawmakers based on state-specific issues rather than a desire to send a message to the White House, Fritts said. And in Pennsylvania, the dominant issue is Corbett - blamed by critics for cuts in education spending and an economy growing more slowly than in neighboring states.

National Democrats are pushing to take control of state senates in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, as well as the houses in Arkansas and Iowa. Republicans say they are targeting senates in Colorado, Oregon, Iowa, Maine and Nevada, and the lower chambers in Kentucky, New Hampshire and West Virginia.

http://articles.philly.com/2014-08-25/news/53171365_1_pennsylvania-senate-senate-district-state-senate

[El Shaman]

38. Ain't

America beautiful - sometimes!

[ctsnowman]

40. Wow.

[C Moon]

44. I just saw this regarding Corbett...

Gov. Tom Corbett left off Pittsburgh Labor Day parade guest list
PITTSBURGH —

The city of Pittsburgh hosts its annual Labor Day parade every year, but this year a major political figure has been left off the guest list.

Organizers of the event said they did not want Pennsylvania Governor Tom Corbett to march in the parade because he doesn’t support issues important to the Allegheny County Labor Council.

Corbett is scheduled to speak with members of the laborers union during a private event after the parade.

Democratic gubernatorial candidate Tom Wolf was chosen lead Monday’s festivities.
...
http://www.wpxi.com/news/news/gov-tom-corbett-left-pittsburgh-labor-day-parade-g/nhDBh/

[santroy79]

45. I so hope this is true

I live in PA. Our schools system has gone down hill in the last 4 years.

[NoRWNJ]

52. Why does DU accept money from Tom Corbett?

The DU runs anti-Tom Wolf campaign ads that I see on my DU web site every day. which are paid for by some Corbett money or Corbett backing money. Why would a Democrat take money from a Republican to attack a Democrat????

DU needs to check its ad policy unless these are Google ads over which DU has no control? But they must have some control over the ads that appear on their site! Can someone explain all of this?

[MineralMan]

53. People who donate to support DU don't see ads on the site.

The admins of DU do not select the ads that display. They appear because topics that are discussed on DU are reflected in the ads that are presented by Google. That's the same way most sites monetize their websites. Don't want to see them? Donate to DU and become a Star member.

Questions like yours are more appropriate in the Ask the Administrators forum, where this particular question has been asked and answered many times.

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