Sam Wang at Princeton Election Consortium---Gives Dems 70% Chance Of Holding Senate.

[kpete]

Sam Wang over at the Princeton Election Consortium does a very nice job of analyzing polls. Mr. Wang's forecast differs from a lot of other work, including the fine work the people here at Dkos are doing.

One of the first questions he asks is what's up with the Dems?:

Senate Democrats are doing surprisingly well. Across the board, Democratic candidates in the nine states above are doing better in the polls-only estimate than the mainstream media models would predict. This is particularly true for Alaska, Arkansas, and North Carolina. In these three states, Democrats are outperforming the expectations of the data pundits (The Upshot’s Leo, Nate Silver, Harry Enten, John Sides, etc.). Why is that, and will it last?

http://election.princeton.edu/2014/08/28/senate-democrats-are-outperforming-expectations/#more-10629

He also presents this chart to demonstrate the differences between some of the different people looking at the polls and other factors.


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MORE:
http://election.princeton.edu/2014/08/28/senate-democrats-are-outperforming-expectations/#more-10629
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/08/29/1325603/-Sam-Wang-Gives-Dems-70-Chance-Of-Holding-Senate

[3rdwaydem]

1. This is music to my ears!