General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsWhat should be done about Russia and Ukraine?
I am looking for others take on this, not a debate, but an idea of how other people see it.
I don't have an answer, it is far from a clear situation. But I do think Putin's goal is to take all of Ukraine into Russian rule.
I don't think the two ends of the continuum of action, do nothing at all or send in a military force, are viable.
But I see the difficulty Obama is facing determining a strategy.
I am not limiting this to military responses.
What's your take?
The Magistrate
(95,247 posts)No one is going to wage war against Russia on Ukraine's behalf, so Putin will be able to take what he is wiling to deploy sufficient military force to seize.
His doing so can be made costly in money terms, and if he goes too far on the ground he will have a long-running partisan campaign to deal with, but that is about all.
edhopper
(33,587 posts)is a response.
I was not talking only in military terms.
The Magistrate
(95,247 posts)But only military force would be capable of stopping the endeavor short of its goal. The goal will be attained, providing the man is willing to wield enough force to secure it.
3rdwaydem
(277 posts)Warren Stupidity
(48,181 posts)The Russians will eventually annex eastern Ukraine, probably concurrent with western Ukraine joining Nato. There is fuck all we can do about that. Our efforts so far have simply consolidated Putin's control over the Russian state as the new Great Leader taking Russia out of its post USSR decline and back into Great Power status, even if that status is, as Obama sneeringly put it, "regional". It is a big region, and we really don't have any military options there.
We can further consolidate Putin's control with punitive sanctions. We probably have no choice but to do just that. So far, this is Putin's game, and he has played it well.
The other reality is that Ukraine was a failed state for the last decade or more. The division between the Russia facing east and the EU facing west was irreconcilable. A split was inevitable.
grahamhgreen
(15,741 posts)ChisolmTrailDem
(9,463 posts)muriel_volestrangler
(101,321 posts)It's absurd to sell them more kit designed for them to attack other countries.
Peacetrain
(22,877 posts)And Europe can stop contributing to his cause.. great point!!!
freshwest
(53,661 posts)Peacetrain
(22,877 posts)The current Russian goverment is being run by KGB (former) trying to reestablish the Old Soviet Union.. Gulags for everyone .. there is nothing to embrace in that hell hole.. and the UN needs to get off its fat backside and do something and stop waiting for us to clean up every mess..
Its a no win situation for sure..what a piece of work he is..
former9thward
(32,023 posts)And besides Russia has a veto at the UN.
AgingAmerican
(12,958 posts)He is trying to establish a right wing version of the Soviet Union. He has tasted money.
TheKentuckian
(25,026 posts)Nye Bevan
(25,406 posts)2. Send arms to the Ukrainians.
VanGoghRocks
(621 posts)a federal Ukraine, the proposal he made back in March and that has subsequently been banished to the dustbin of history.
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2014-03-30/kerry-to-meet-lavrov-in-paris-in-bid-to-defuse-ukraine-crisis
eridani
(51,907 posts)All indications are that the east wants more autonomy, not secession.
BillZBubb
(10,650 posts)Then when the Czechs gave them everything they wanted, the Sudeten Germans used their autonomy to guarantee annexation by the Third Reich.
eridani
(51,907 posts)Kiev ciminals supporters are nazis and that is official
They use the neo-Nazi Wolfsangel (Wolfs Hook) symbol on their banner
and members of the battalion are openly white supremacists, or anti-Semites
BillZBubb
(10,650 posts)But that isn't the point. The point is an ethnic group in one country sought autonomy as a step to allow annexation by their "mother" country. The Russian minority in Ukraine would do the same.
eridani
(51,907 posts)hack89
(39,171 posts)are you really that naive?
eridani
(51,907 posts)Especially not attackers waving Nazi flags.
hack89
(39,171 posts)Let's be honest about what is actually happening.
eridani
(51,907 posts)By all accounts, they would be satisfied with a federalist system allowing more local control
hack89
(39,171 posts)eridani
(51,907 posts)Wonder what Russia might be doing if the US and Europe had kept their promise not to expand NATO eastward?
hack89
(39,171 posts)Got it.
eridani
(51,907 posts)--from Eastern Europe. Why should Russian tolerate being encircled by US and NATO military bases? Would it be OK if some other country did that to us? Having 800+ military bases around the world is not doing anything for actual Americans except turning us into a 3rd world country. If you are happy with that, then bully for you.
hack89
(39,171 posts)The last major expansion was 10 years ago. It is a BS excuse.
eridani
(51,907 posts)hack89
(39,171 posts)Why do you think Russia had the right to do this?
eridani
(51,907 posts)edhopper
(33,587 posts)right here in the good ol' USA.
pampango
(24,692 posts)Fascist movements shared certain common features, including the veneration of the state, a devotion to a strong leader, and an emphasis on ultranationalism and militarism. Fascism views political violence, war, and imperialism as a means to achieve national rejuvenation, and it asserts that stronger nations have the right to expand their territory by displacing weaker nations.
Fascism borrowed theories and terminology from socialism but replaced socialism's focus on class conflict with a focus on conflict between nations and races. Fascists advocate a mixed economy, with the principal goal of achieving autarky to secure national self-sufficiency and independence through protectionist and interventionist economic policies.
The Nazis said that homosexuality was degenerate, effeminate, perverted, and undermined masculinity because it did not produce children.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fascism
Veneration of the state (Mother Russia) - check
devotion to a strong leader - check
emphasis on ultranationalism and militarism - check
politcal violence, war and imperialism - check
strong nations (Russia) have a right to expand their territory by displacing weaker nations (Ukraine) - check
focus on conflict between nations (Russia vs. US/EU) and races (ethnic Russians vs. ethnic Ukrainians) - check
protectionist and interventionist economic policies - check
homosexuality is forbidden by the state - check.
There is nothing liberal or progressive about the Russian government or its leader.
MFrohike
(1,980 posts)Anybody else remember that one? It was real popular during the Bush years. It was a vague, somewhat descriptive list of characteristics of fascist regimes that got bandied about quite a bit back then. It was quite convincing as long as you didn't know anything about any country in the world, including your own. This new checklist is no different.
If you don't believe me, that's cool. All your points, except the last, can be shown to apply to the US today. As for the last, homosexual behavior was only legalized in the US in 2003 and gay marriage is more or less illegal throughout the country. Of course, the last is really a red herring, given that, until recently, there were damn few, if any, regimes that didn't criminalize homosexuality. Granted, Russia is swimming against the tide on that particular issue, but if gay-hating is a necessary indicator of fascism, someone should have told Stalin and Mao.
pampango
(24,692 posts)to Russia, the US or Ukraine today.
Is it possible for someone to be a fascist if they deny it or even claim they hate fascists? Or is "fascist" a term one can "earn" based on their behavior regardless of ther protestations?
"Russia is swimming against the tide on that particular issue, but if gay-hating is a necessary indicator of fascism, someone should have told Stalin and Mao."
Stalin and Mao would certainly qualify as fascists on every criteria other than economic policy and even there they certainly believed in autarky.
In 1933, Article 121 was added to the criminal code, for the entire Soviet Union, that expressly prohibited only male homosexuality, with up to five years of hard labor in prison. There were no criminal statutes regarding lesbianism. During the Soviet regime, Western observers believed that between 800 to 1,000 men were imprisoned each year under Article 121.
Some historians have suggested that Joseph Stalin's enactment of the anti-gay law was, like his prohibition on abortion, an attempt to increase the Russian birthrate and build a better relationship with the socially conservative Eastern Orthodox Church. Some historians have noted that it was during this time that Soviet propaganda began to depict homosexuality as a sign of fascism, and that Article 121 may have a simple political tool to use against dissidents, irrespective of their true sexual orientation, and to solidify Russian opposition to Nazi Germany, who had broken its treaty with Russia.
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/LGBT_history_in_Russia#LGBT_history_under_Stalin:_1933.E2.80.931953
While many dissidents would be imprisoned or executed, it is unclear if LGBT people were specifically targeted for oppression due to their sexual identity. Reportedly, Mao Zedong believed in the sexual castration of "sexual deviants" (Randy Shilts. "Conduct Unbecoming" but little is known about the Communist Chinese governments official policy with regards to homosexuality prior to the 1980s.
Even as late as the early 1980s, there were some Chinese men seeking asylum in other countries reported that they had faced systematic discrimination and harassment from the government because of their sexual orientation as well as similar mistreatment from family members [1]. Likewise, the Chinese government did treat homosexuality as a disease and subjected gay men to electric shock therapy and other attempts to change their sexual orientation ["China Using Electrodes To 'Cure' Homosexuals", New York Times, January 29, 1990]
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/LGBT_history_in_China#People.27s_Republic_of_China
MFrohike
(1,980 posts)Sorry it took me a bit to get back to you. I wrote a long post yesterday that just seemed like overkill and somewhat off topic. So, I'll go for brevity and on point today.
The essence of fascism is not in the calculated hate, the propaganda campaigns, the murders, the looting, or the destruction. Those are all the gravy. The essence is the utter arbitrariness of it. Think of it as nationalistic feudalism on super-steroids. All that matters is the accumulation and maintenance of power. Remember the end of 1984, well not the very end, where the Party operative explains the difference between the Party and "all other oligarchies of the past?" That could be a primer on how to identify fascist thinking.
It's the lack of rules, other than some variation of the fuhrerprinzip. It's so far removed from the rule of law or even informal ground rules that it's really hard to describe. The only way it could really be described is anything goes. If you have the power, you can do anything you want. If you don't, you'll be on the receiving end of that anything. It's somewhat like Rome's old clientela structure, if you discarded all the customs and mores of the past. Sure, you keep the hate and prejudices. After all, every group needs an external binding agent to bring it together (and probably make it pliable). Otherwise, it's a rampant chase for power, with all the degradation that it implies.
How does all of that apply to the US, Russia, or Ukraine? There's definitely a sense of that lawlessness in both Russia and the US today. Has it risen to the point where the average person can honestly look at his or her government and say, "Oh my God, we're being ruled by gangsters"? I don't think so. I mean, if you took Hitler and Himmler out of the picture, the rest of the Nazi regime was pretty much indistinguishable from the Capone mob, though not in the scale of their brutality. Is either country really at that point?
I can't help but look at Russia today as somewhat of a recreation of 19th century Tsarist Russia. It's heroically corrupt, fairly authoritarian, and interested in the same things that have always interested Russia (to be fair, I really should say the Russian leadership instead of Russia, but forgive me the shorthand). It just doesn't give off the same feeling as a fascist regime. I should say a modern fascist regime, none of which really exist but modern fascists appear to look to the example of Germany not Italy for their inspiration. I think if we do see one in the near future, which gets more likely with every passing year of economic depression, it will be as vicious as its heroes.
I don't think Ukraine is a fascist regime, either. I am concerned about the utter lack of concern displayed by Kiev regarding those self-described neo-fascist groups they let run wild in the east. I don't know if it's a sign of desperation or just stupidity. Only a fool thinks he can ride herd on a pack of rabid dogs.
I hope this all made sense.
MattSh
(3,714 posts)Bragi
(7,650 posts)That's needs to be the continuing guiding principle.
VanGoghRocks
(621 posts)Vots
(24 posts)It's none of our business. Ever since WWII, U.S. foreign policy is riddled with unintended consequences of what we thought was right. The fact is, only the Ukranians know how to deal with their problems. The U.S. being thousands of miles away, have no idea what we're doing and any military actions will just make the situation worse.
The best thing we can do is show our distaste for any military actions by using diplomacy. If Russia is going to act militarily in Ukraine, then we shall not do business with them. And vice versa with Ukraine, if they're going to act militarily against the Russian areas of the Ukraine, then we shall also not conduct any business with them.
The U.S. needs to be the leader it is and stop taking sides and promote peace.
"Russian areas of the Ukraine"? What are you talking about? Ukraine is the Ukraine agreed to in a treaty with Russia. There is no Russian area in Ukraine. Ukraine has every right to maintain control of its territory by force if necessary.
Your idea of peace is to let Russia annex whatever parts of Ukraine it wants.
MattSh
(3,714 posts)Ukraine was established in 1991 from the territory of the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic, and until a few months ago, had the exact boundaries of the former Ukrainian SSR. This includes former Russian Empire territories ceded to the Ukrainian SSR by Lenin (where the war is currently happening) and Khrushchev (Crimea), and WW2 gains given to the Ukrainian SSR (parts of West Ukraine). In fact, in the 24 years following independence, Ukraine never applied to the UN to have their borders recognized officially.
BillZBubb
(10,650 posts)It was signed by both Russia and Ukraine and specified the 1991 borders.
As for official UN recognition, I don't think that is germane. Everyone knows what the 1991 borders were after the establishment of an independent Ukraine. Russia never went to the UN to dispute them.
Jenoch
(7,720 posts)with Ukraine because they do not wish to roll over and welcome Soviet-style Russian subjugation yet again?
I will not support sending any sort of military aid to Ukraine. They have their right to defend themselves, but the U.S. doesn't need to get involved.
grahamhgreen
(15,741 posts)g
tech3149
(4,452 posts)Any honest understanding of the situation is meaningless without informed historical context. Just in the most recent sense you must understand the discussions at the reunification of Germany. The agreement was on the condition that NATO would not expand its influence eastward. That agreement was not honored. Ukraine became a red line that was crossed by the EU, NATO, and the US.
Consider the viewpoint of the Russian government. Nations and organizations that have an institutionalized adversarial attitude toward you expand their influence and attempt to isolate you from normal relationships with other nations in the region. What would your reaction be?
The EU motivation for bringing Ukraine into their economic sphere of influence offered virtually nothing to Ukraine but would have the dual benefit to the EU of isolating them from Russia economically and providing another sacrifice region like Greece to prop up a failing economic structure. The neoliberal policies will impose austerity and privatization that will do nothing to improve Ukraine's economic situation but will certainly enrich even further the oligarchs that got rich after the fall of the Soviet Union.
What is the purpose of maintaining NATO in today's world? It was formed at a time when Soviet Russia was considered a threat of regional and global war by most everyone. The only logical reason I can see for its continued existence is the deluded persistence of cold warriors in determining foreign policy. That mentality will only serve to assure that other parts of the world will see the US as a threat and will deal with us as such. Time to quit pissing in other peoples sandbox and acting surprised when they get upset.
My apologies for not getting more specific and with reference resources. There are so many areas of import that I try to inform myself about I would spend most of my day and fill up a hard drive to maintain and manage it all.
The Magistrate
(95,247 posts)I have never been a particular fan of 'Eastward Ho!' as a NATO slogan.
I am, however, sympathetic to the desire of people who once were part of the Russian empire, whether Czarist or Soviet, to have some assurance they will not be brought once again under Russian economic and political dominion. I think that is an element you leave out of your analysis.
I would point out, too, that Russia has no right, or at least no right beyond that might may confer, to have subservient neighbors, dependent on it politically and economically.
In the present day, NATO continues as one of the armatures on which the project of a European Federation is being gradually assembled: it is the precursor of the Defense Ministry of a united Europe, as the Euro currency and supervisors are the precursor of such an entities Treasury Ministry. As Europe becomes more and more a single economic and political entity, these will become organs of it, in the same way as organelles, once separate beings, persist as functional bodies within a eukaryote cell.
tech3149
(4,452 posts)I would however argue that perhaps Russia is not trying to achieve economic and political dominion as much as avoiding encroachment on their regional economic and defense interest. The same could be argued for the US trying to maintain Canada and Mexico as subservient neighboring states.
The Magistrate
(95,247 posts)As the saying goes: 'Whether a weapon is offensive or defensive depends on which end is nearest you.'
Avoiding encroachment on regional economic and military interests is at best trying to maintain economic and military dominion one already possesses in a region, or else is trying to re-assert these where it has weakened or slipped away.
I hold no more brief for the United States trying to maintain neighboring states in a condition of subservience than I do for Russia doing so.
KoKo
(84,711 posts)And....
What is the purpose of maintaining NATO in today's world? It was formed at a time when Soviet Russia was considered a threat of regional and global war by most everyone. The only logical reason I can see for its continued existence is the deluded persistence of cold warriors in determining foreign policy. That mentality will only serve to assure that other parts of the world will see the US as a threat and will deal with us as such. Time to quit pissing in other peoples sandbox and acting surprised when they get upset.
joshcryer
(62,276 posts)EU offered Ukraine stability and anti-corruption measures in exchange for austerity (which is self-imposed because it is directly related to the Russia-related corruption that has festered in that country since it broke away from Russia).
This is the same old canard that Russia used to build the Iron Curtain in the first place. Evil imperialism is going to eat Russian babies so we need an entire country, and its peoples, as a shield from that evil imperialism encroaching upon our territory.
The concept is asinine.
Warren Stupidity
(48,181 posts)It should be disbanded.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)by Russia would certainly disagree with you.
Union Scribe
(7,099 posts)in a thread with far too much hot-headed chickenhawking.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)and the only thing that keeps Russian tanks out of a country is NATO tanks. Russia's behavior has not changed for several centuries now.
ancianita
(36,081 posts)various goals in that region.
Is it about who controls energy resources or is it about national sovereignty, or both. If it's about both, why can't both countries just cut a deal and treat each other as neighbors with stuff to exchange. Why the power grab, and why now. I'm just trying to keep up.
Ukraine has just asked to join NATO. Why now? Why did its leaders accede to not joining NATO earlier, and promote its sovereign narrative and trade relationships internationally?
Sure, Ukrainian unionists heated up during the Moscow Olympics, but prior to that, Ukraine seems to have not gained sufficient control of the terms of its economy and international status. Have Ukrainians lost control of their sovereignty because they allowed Russians to settle there?
Can the Russian population's settlement be considered similar to Israel's settlement of the West Bank -- a way to claim and annex land base? Is Putin's recently claimed 'demographic unification' an accepted worldwide standard that any country can use to annex more land base?' Is that why migrants from powerful nations are not trusted in resource rich countries?
Is it a stupid question to ask whether the Ukrainians have just not had leaders who know how to strengthen and protect their country such that the old bully next door is out to show them what happens when you don't run your land base very well? Does Gazprom really run Putin?
tech3149
(4,452 posts)Each and every aspect of your response holds a part of the puzzle. They are all important factors but I always ask myself who is in a position to effectively influence actions and who benefits from the result? It's the age old follow the money trope, but it's true. The problem I have is that all of these geopolitical pissing contests never seem to factor in the opinion, affect, and resulting outcome on the "little people". The problem is when you don't factor in all pertinent aspects to your stupid game theory strategy, you will most likely be wrong about the outcome and its effects.
BillZBubb
(10,650 posts)Post WWII, it is not an accepted standard, but is seen for what it is, an illegal land grab.
As for the Ukrainians, they didn't let Russians settle their, the Soviet Union settled them there while Ukraine was a SSR. It wasn't up to Ukrainians. Since the Soviet collapse, the Ukrainian government has been torn between those who wanted to lean heavily towards Russia and those favoring Europe. Under that schism, not much was done to defend the country.
Even so, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia signed a treaty with Ukraine guaranteeing its borders. Putin has shredded that treaty. That's where the real villain is to be found.
ancianita
(36,081 posts)Cleita
(75,480 posts)If he takes Ukraine, which country is next?
TheMightyFavog
(13,770 posts)I'm no expert in the field of the former USSR, I could be wrong...
LanternWaste
(37,748 posts)Bessarabia is my guess, though I imagine the Baltic States would have been Moscow's next victim of military expansionism had they not asked for and recived membership into both NATO and the EU.
Jenoch
(7,720 posts)or all of Moldova? I don't either has much strategic value.
meMeMEEEE
(40 posts)based on his Seliger speech today and recent comments made by Russian officials in the press
mythology
(9,527 posts)We should also find out from the Ukrainian government what additional help would be useful. That could take many forms including military arms sales or giving an economic loan to help boost the Ukrainian economy.
I don't currently favor open war with Russia, but given that Putin clearly didn't stop with just Georgia or Crimea, doing nothing isn't a valid option.
panader0
(25,816 posts)freshwest
(53,661 posts)There was an arms race in the middle of WW2 that never ended from Allied side, unwilling to allow it again. The close of that conflict officially did not end the arms race as the alliance between the West and the USSR collapsed.
Russia has always had an edge on NATO in nuclear technology, which Putin has recently referred to as an indication of the power of Russia, posted in another thread today. Most of us within range of Cuba in the 1960s were taught to get under school desks and kiss our ass goodbye during that time. We were separated according to how far our homes were from school. If lived close, we were told, we'd be allowed to go home to be with our families and die. If not (and I was one of those) we would have to stay at school and die. They showed us images of what the atomic bomb did and the deaths that followed. That was going to be our fate, we were told. In any case, we would die. Kruschev beat on the podium in the UN and said he would bury us, years after WW2 was over with. I don't think it ever was, now. So these institutions exist to keep the fighting less deadly. But death is part of it.
Look at the casualties on both sides, the Allies who are mostly in NATO now, lost by far the most lives, both military and civilian. Especially percentages of population. Our current generations have not seen, and can scarcely conceive, of the costs of that in psychological terms to all involved. We can only see the images and statistics, but it is what is under the surface.
The Jews made 'never forget' their meme, but no one else in power has forgotten. It's why the President goes to place a wreath or do homage on D-Day in Europe. This is what created our world with its prosperity, and set into motion many things that could be for good or evil. It's not all just one or the other, but the mind reels at the data being input and tries to simplify it in B&W terms.
We are tired. But the WW2 generation lived and died in what is called 'total' warfare on a scale not seen since, because of the treaties. I've researched and posted a lot on this when Libya and Syria hit the news. It was eye opening to me, as I'd thought, NATO, pfft! Military, double pfft and get out of my wallet! And various other pffts one might adopt in order to not go along the road of militarism. It's not that easy, though.
The member states of NATO hold the majority of military power and technology and spend more money on it than any other nation singly, or in combination, on the face of the planet. Their people came to rely on those awful preparations for war, and were free to live without being called to sacrifice personally or financially except as part of their social contract.
A secularist, like myself, knows there are things my taxes are paid to do that I don't want; and things that I do want. I respect that some may not want to spend federal money on abortion, birth control, affirmative action, social and public services that I do want.
To them, I give the finger. To those who believe the mission of government is purely to defend 'the homeland (ugh)' I also give the finger. But I can't have one without the other, sad to say, because the human race does not appear to have evolved.
Torture, murder and mayhem have always been with the human race and I see nothing special in what we have done, no matter how much outrage I feel. It's only remarkable in the comparison, and only that we feel ownership and betrayal. There have always been those who do such things and never had a ideal that could be betrayed.
I'm tired of humanity, or rather my own hopes for evolution of the species, right now, so forgive me if I speak negatively. We are coming at a point in our world that our ideals may mean little with what the wounds of nature will now inflict upon us. I would rather be killed by a tornado for there is no malice, no intent to degrade. It just is what happens.
Back to NATO and our moral authority to act. Bush, Jr. abused the other members of NATO, which has the mandate for joint action when a member state is attacked, after 9/11. The fraudulent use of that has made member states very wary.
The responsibilities of the different NATO member states vary. It appears the USA was given the role of supplying boots on the ground and operating the technology of death, but others no so much. They do give support they feel comfortable with as they have less people. All contribute money to make it all work for all.
The reason our military took action in Libya and threatened Syria was because UN member states or NATO members demanded we enforce the treaties and take the heat for it. Specifically, Turkey has repeatedly called for intervention in Syria, as the fighting there is destabilizing them.
The CWC of the UN played a big part in those events, and it still plays a part in all that we do in the Middle East. The CWC covers chemical weapons, biological and radiological ones. And nuclear weaponry is part of that equation.
The USA made successful overtures to Iran who has supported Syria to get them to turn over their chemical weapons. We are no longer adversaries of the kind we had been under Bush and before. North Korea has been called a state sponsor of terrorism for supplying Syria and other nations things forbidden under the CWC. Before Libya and Syria made the news, they were not signatories to the CWC and now they are. All was done without our boots on the ground.
Yes, there will be covert operations done. Some are good and some bad, IMO, but those involved would disagree they are doing anything wrong. I'm not qualified to judge them from the media spin but some days sit back in wonder at the complex nature of the world and where people find their place in it. Obama has pushed the world toward peace, we can say in one way. It's less of the idyllic version of peace we may want to see happen, yet it is not total war. It's going to continue to be full of skirmishes and genocides that are violent, bloody and disgusting and we see it around the world.
The absence of war does not give the exhilaration of soldiers returning to the USA at the close of WW2. A permanent level of small wars is what we appear to be entering. There will be death, there will be torture, looting and war crimes. Our view of war crimes comes from the prism of WW2. Take away that foundation, and there will be no standards.
That's long and rambling, more than you wanted to hear but I need some coffee to wake up. In many more words than you expected, my answer is yes, we do have the moral authority to do things, but only as have been granted in treaties we have promised to uphold.
Obama has acted solely within those treaties, and not one step further. The wisest thing to do will be sanctions, but there is no will to stop the raising of new flags or redrawing maps by Americans, or the West. We just don't feel it's our place, and we may or may not let the treaties that protected us lapse and have WW3. Those treaties were put in place to prevent WW3.
JMHO.
bemildred
(90,061 posts)Within that context, work to ensure Kiev gets a fair deal.
Thinking longer term, help to modernize and democratize Ukraine and encourage closer ties with the West and western values etc.
Edit: I know it's boring, but it might work, unlike the present approach.
The Magistrate
(95,247 posts)It supposes one of two things: either good will on the part of both sides, or the capacity of some external power greater than both to impose a settlement fair to each whether they want it or not. Neither the first or the second condition exists.
It is an unfortunate fact that a state with sufficient power can misbehave to its heart's content, so long as it does not threaten the existence of a power with equal or greater command of military force.
bemildred
(90,061 posts)They are still saying they want a united Ukraine, and that will certainly be much cheaper for them than continuing the war.
It is true that the enmity caused by the dispute so far will be an obstacle, but I don't see much to lose by giving it a try. Get a respite for the Kiev government, if you want to look at it that way, if nothing else, and the people of Ukraine.
Winter is coming, the economy is in shambles, etc.
The Magistrate
(95,247 posts)I just do not always expect to come of them, if one is seeking a reasonable or just solution to a difficulty. What was it the Athenian envoy said? 'The strong do what they will, and the weak suffer what they must.' That was part of a negotiation, too....
Negotiation in this situation will only serve to ratify what force has created.
I agree an end to killing has some inherent good, but I cannot approve the dismemberment of a European state, and the first steps towards recreation of the old land empire of the Czars and Soviets.
bemildred
(90,061 posts)I don't approve of any of this. The alternative would seem to be another frozen conflict, a de facto partition, Ukraine remaining a permanent bone of contention between larger powers, I don't approve of that either.
The Magistrate
(95,247 posts)But a negotiated partition would produce pretty much the same results of frozen conflict and permanent 'hot spot'.
As is often the case, there is no good way out.
bemildred
(90,061 posts)And to keep it's economy as functional as possible.
Only a united Ukraine with a functional economy has a chance to be strong enough to chart its own course.
You don't have to sign over Crimea, leave it in dispute, and you can demand strong economic ties with the West.
Drop the sanctions and promise normal relations and I think Putin would go for it. It's a big win for him.
The Magistrate
(95,247 posts)I do not think Putin will go for it. Crimea is already annexed as part of Russia, and from Putin's view is not and cannot be disputed. The minimum Putin might accept would be a 'federal' structure in Ukraine amounting to full fiscal and military autonomy for the eastern districts, and were this in place, agitation would immediately begin for their 'adoption' by Russia, which would be accepted. I doubt it would take more than four years.
bemildred
(90,061 posts)BillZBubb
(10,650 posts)They have lost substantial territory and what do they get in return? Certainly Putin isn't going to give back Crimea.
This situation is very analogous to the pre-WWII years. A recently disorganized and humiliated major power is annexing territory from its neighbor using a claim of ethnic solidarity. The other European powers are fearful of getting involved and won't even dare take minimal steps to stop it. Many Americans are saying we shouldn't get involved either. The annexing country, though militarily not prepared for a major war, uses veiled threats to keep other countries away. Their leader, knowing the other powers won't act, keeps going for more.
All we need to keep the cycle going is to find our Chamberlain to go to Moscow and give Putin the green light to annex the Don region.
bemildred
(90,061 posts)BillZBubb
(10,650 posts)And yes things can get worse.
Continuing with the pre-WWII analogy, the US tried to punish Japan for its invasion of China by restricting Japans access to oil and other raw materials. That was the chief reason the Japanese high command came to view war with the US as inevitable. Which of course led to the attack on Pearl Harbor.
So, appeasement didn't work in Europe and harsh sanctions didn't work in Asia. I don't envy President Obama having to find the correct path somewhere in the middle.
bemildred
(90,061 posts)former9thward
(32,023 posts)Are Ukrainians not smart enough or not capable enough to have their own values? The U.S. must quit interfering with other peoples in other lands. It is not our business.
bemildred
(90,061 posts)But if you want to skip that, fine with me.
Tierra_y_Libertad
(50,414 posts)Comrade Grumpy
(13,184 posts)meMeMEEEE
(40 posts)provide assurances that the US would not object to PRC takeover of Siberia and encourage them to act
Russia has already provided the precedent/blueprint in Crimea/Donbass and lost any moral rights to oppose it: 1) recognise the existence of substantial ethnic Chinese population in the region and the need to protect their interests, 2) get them to run a fake referendum on self-determination 3) send soldiers in without insignia posing as home-grown self defence forces aiming to protect the results of the referendum 4) squeeze the Russian authorities out
Putin would not be able to fight on two fronts and would have to give up on Ukrainian ambitions to focus on the bigger issue
The downside is a much stronger China several decades down the road
Oh, and as an extra bonus, kick out every vatnik troll from this board, they are not helping
BillZBubb
(10,650 posts)it would mean jumping from the frying pan into the fire. A major war between Russia and China would not be to the benefit of anyone. Things could and probably would get out of control.
talk to the Dutch, arrest Putin's daughter on money-laundering charges (applicable to virtually every wealthy Russian living abroad), trade her in for Ukraine
BillZBubb
(10,650 posts)Drop the Brent price, worked in the 80-s
Putin's team is divided already, he keeps raising stakes at the expense of their capital and lifestyle, they will strongly encourage him to step back
Downside: lifting sanctions on Iran (hence a stronger Iran in the near future), concessions to selected OPEC members (no idea what those guys would ask for), environmental damage
yurbud
(39,405 posts)the Ukraine, a major route for gas pipelines from Russia, their economic growth will be capped. We will control the spigot for their gas.
The problem is asymmetrical warfare.
Russia will not nuke us or get into any kind of direct military confrontation with the West.
Rather we are defeating ourselves.
By continuing to block the rise of a multi-polar world, we give those emerging powers a reason to economically cripple our ability to abuse them economically and militarily.
The BRICS are doing this by setting up a parallel banking system to the abusive one of the West.
China could do this by no longer buying our debt.
The world is already interdependent and multi-polar in economic terms, and Washington and Wall Street bankers are fighting that from inevitably translating to political terms.
Even if we won a war with Russia, we would just be delaying the inevitable.
We fought and won two wars to stop Germany from integrating Western Europe economically. Now Germany has effectively done just that with the EU.
Laughing Mirror
(4,185 posts)See how they've placed their country so close to American bases.
stevenleser
(32,886 posts)Laughing Mirror
(4,185 posts)Unprovoked? Tell me about that.
meMeMEEEE
(40 posts)US military bases in Kazakhstan and the Kyrgyz Republic??????
NATO presence in the Pacific?
How about you fact check Kremlin-sponsored crap before posting it? Thanks
Laughing Mirror
(4,185 posts)US military bases are not all over the world. Just a figment of the imagination I suppose.
fadedrose
(10,044 posts)so we are not obligated to go to war.
Obama and other nations have placed economic sanctions and we can protest, but that's it.
I don't know how many separatists there are in Ukraine, but if enough of them are fairly close to the border with Russia, maybe they should let that section of land go to the Russians without a war. That would be my suggestion.
Our country changed it's borders many times, and places like Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands, etc., are still "territories," and native Americans have their own laws, reservations, etc.
Not saying it's good or bad, but it is what it is.
Israel and Palestine, same thing...sometimes concessions have to be made to prevent "eternal" war and live with uncomfortable peace.
GeorgeGist
(25,321 posts)The chemistry is there.
bemildred
(90,061 posts)leftstreet
(36,109 posts)Xolodno
(6,395 posts)Jeebus...he really is that stupid!
TBF
(32,064 posts)Which brings up some other good points -
US out of Venezuela
US out of Iraq
US out of Afghanistan
US out of Syria
US out of Uganda
I'm sure I'm missing some ...
It's hard to keep up.
stevenleser
(32,886 posts)TBF
(32,064 posts)the government contractors get rich. And we can watch our young come back in body bags. Good plan!
stevenleser
(32,886 posts)but other folks having bases is bad.
Got it.
TBF
(32,064 posts)but you go ahead and do your warmongering.
stevenleser
(32,886 posts)One where one nation state is blatantly invading and annexing another states territory.
If you want to see a warmonger, look in the mirror
TBF
(32,064 posts)of countries rather than install leaders in order to have more beneficial access to natural resources everyone would be better off. Except the 1%ers whose stock you are hoping to get rich off of. Except those guys.
I'm arguing for anti-imperialism. I'll wait while you go look that one up.
stevenleser
(32,886 posts)Putin himself said he would like to rebuilt the Soviet Empire.
You are clapping as he does it via war.
TBF
(32,064 posts)Putin's interests are the same as the US. He also is interested in the natural resources of Ukraine. Two capitalist countries fighting over resources. That must be a first.
But your 60-year old red-baiting is amusing. Be sure to turn me into Holder.
Warren Stupidity
(48,181 posts)That is what you are in favor of?
stevenleser
(32,886 posts)the moment it started to look like we were taking those kinds of steps they would back off.
Warren Stupidity
(48,181 posts)that is amazing. I'm really glad you are in no position to make such a decision.
stevenleser
(32,886 posts)Warren Stupidity
(48,181 posts)I think you know that. I have no idea why you are supporting a potential war on Russia's border. Usually you are more reasonable.
morningfog
(18,115 posts)Hippo_Tron
(25,453 posts)Duckhunter935
(16,974 posts)You do not say "the Russia". Common mistake and I am sure it was not intentional.
edhopper
(33,587 posts)thanks
Scootaloo
(25,699 posts)We'd be arming Russia, praising their restraint in not flattening Kiev, and filling the airwaves with talk about how the Ukranians need to renounce violence entirely before we think about acknowledging their existence as a state.
leftstreet
(36,109 posts)+1
eridani
(51,907 posts)Xolodno
(6,395 posts)Lets look at this from above:
1. One part of the population considers itself more "central European"...siding with Poland, Germany, etc. The other part, Slavic..siding with Russia.
2. Ukraine was part of the Russian Empire (due to conquests that predate the USA)...had the Bolshevik Revolution not occurred and the provisional government under Kerensky endured till the end of World War 1...Ukraine would still be part of Russia.
3. Ukraine became a nation briefly after WW1....then absorbed when Nazi Germany and Soviet Russia allied.
4. After World War 2, even though many nations fell under the Iron Curtain....they were considered their own nation. Ukraine was not. Ukraine was recognized as part of Soviet Russia.
5. Ukraine seceded from Russia (During the Soviet Union collapse...and Russia being run by a drunkard named Yeltsin)...as the Soviet Constitution allowed it to do so...albeit it was tongue and cheek. There merely for the appearances of propaganda of a "benefactor" country. There was never any intention of letting Ukraine out of Russia's control.
6. The US saw an opportunity to permanently weaken Russia by yanking the republics away from Moscow's influence...and Moscow in its upheaval...was powerless.
7. NATO didn't dissolve. This is important because....
8. Russia has historically been attacked from the West....its a paranoia..but sadly...not a paranoia unfounded....but....
9. Russia views itself as "The Savior of Europe". That being, the ones responsible for Napoleon Bonaparte and Adolf Hitler's fall. And probably see NATO (an organization run by "America" as a threat.
10. Russia doesn't want all of Ukraine (just the parts they can control and will be of economic benefit)...Europe doesn't give a rats ass about Ukraine, its long been a subjugated territory...The US want's all of Ukraine to economically stunt Russia when it needs to.
11. Ukraine doesn't know its identity...how could it, has not been a nation in the last 500 years to gain one. Its culture is either Russian or Central European.
12. The easiest way to solve this...would be to federalize Ukraine like Finland. Only...one problem...
13. They have energy deposits. To quote the movie Dune (haven't read the book...yet): "He who controls the spice controls the Universe!". In this case, he who controls the energy is the big dog in Europe. If Ukraine didn't have energy deposits...Putin could walk into Kiev and say "you now belong to Russia again" and no one outside of Ukraine would blink an eye. Shoot...they would probably tell Ukraine "it was probably the best for them".
14. Obama's foreign policy has been unraveling (don't know if its because of Bush appointee's or just incompetence..but favoring the former rather than the later). ISIS in Syria and Iraq, no State of Palestine, Libya...unknown, Egypt for good or worse, back under control of the Military, Afghanistan...unknown, Syria...devil you know...or the devil you don't know, etc. I'd bet the farm, that he has adviser's telling him that he needs a foreign policy victory....while he has the attitude "such victories come to bite us in the ass later".
Just too many players and too much politics at this issue.
Me personally...go with the federalization plan...any other way causes a greater loss of life.
I contest point 1 and point 11:
1. Add up the Slavic population that is part of NATO/EU/EU candidates, compare it with the Slavic population of Belarus and RF (and please do not assign the entire 142m pop. Of the Federation as 'Slavs') and then tell me where the Slavic majority (that the 'other' Ukraine is supposed to be siding with) really is today
11.Ukraine (incl its ethnically Russian citizens) has a very distinct identity. I am not even going to touch on the topic of what was the capital of the state that gave Russia its name and the exact territory that it covered a millenium ago, or the fact that it has its own language and culture (let wikipedia help you out). More importantly, it is home to the people that had the guts to overthrow a corrupt President earlier this Feb and stand for their rights, very much unlike their counterparts to the East. Think of it as what Russia could have been if it was not a police state. And that is the source of Ukraine's identity and that is why its people (of all creeds, ethnic Russians included) are willing to go to the East of their own country to fight off the invasion by the alleged friendly neighbour that feels a tad too threatened to let Ukraine go its own way and inadvertently become an example of European values actually working in a post-Soviet state
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)doesn't annex. Full EU membership for what is left of Ukraine.
And moving towards a total and permanent economic boycott of the feral Russian state.
grahamhgreen
(15,741 posts)same.... But they're taking the austerity route.
roamer65
(36,745 posts)It's Russia's backyard, so not much we can do about it.
If this were about a EU or NATO member country, then it would be a whole different ball game.
RiffRandell
(5,909 posts)on DU?
BainsBane
(53,035 posts)Economic sanctions and pressure, sure. But the fact is chances are not good it will be terribly effective, as we are seeing. Fact is Russia wants the country and they are going to have it. Probably not much that can be done about it absent war, which would be insane.
samsingh
(17,599 posts)sanctions should be increased so that everyone is hurting. that will mean that they are working.
cheapdate
(3,811 posts)A political dispute between Moscow and Kiev isn't our problem. We are obligated to defend our NATO allies and we should.
The Traveler
(5,632 posts)How much is it worth to you, in terms of human lives and national treasure? k
In this situation, the most committed wins. For a great many reasons, many of them rooted in regional history, Russia views the Ukraine as a vital piece of territory. With it under their control, they become players in Eurasia. With it under someone else's control, they become vulnerable. That is the perception of Russian military thinkers, and history makes it difficult to argue with their rationale.
So we can presume, due to its perceived importance to Russia, that the level of Russian commitment is high, particularly among Russian military leadership. From that we can infer they are willing to pay a high price.
Are we? Probably not. So that leaves us with economic sanctions ... and Russia has already found in China a source of support that helps undermine the effectiveness of that.
The post Cold War "New World Order" thus faces a crisis, and it is one that I think was inevitable once the US decided to break the rules and invade Iraq on a set of false pretexts. That deed motivated, and indeed enabled, the formation of partnerships to resist the brutal enforcement of PNAC's vaunted "benign hegemony". Those partnerships, of which BRICs is just one example, have been ripening for a while. None of our economic institutions, nor any of our military preparations, presume a large and well financed bloc of opposition. But that is indeed what we face.
I believe Ukraine is gone, a dead end. We need to be rethinking our policies in terms of a new reality. To the chagrin of the neo-cons, history has clearly resumed. The dream of a unipolar world turned out to be delusion. We need to give up on that idea now.
Trav
pampango
(24,692 posts)treaties and organizations. To hell with the rest of the world. We (well, republicans mainly) did that after WWI and it worked quite well to bring about peace and prosperity. Surely it would work again.