The ebola virus is mutating

[B2G]

This is not good.

****************************************************************************

Sense of urgency heightens over Ebola crisis

By Brady Dennis August 28 at 8:14 PM

The Ebola outbreak sweeping through West Africa will get significantly worse before it subsides, infecting as many as 20,000 people, the World Health Organization said Thursday, even as U.S. researchers announced plans to begin human safety trials next week in a race to develop an effective vaccine.

Adding more urgency to the crisis, new research detailed how the virus at the heart of the outbreak has mutated repeatedly in recent months, a fact that could hinder diagnosis and treatment of the devastating disease the longer the crisis stretches on. Five of the paper’s 50 co-authors died of Ebola before they could see their findings about the sequencing of the virus’s genome published.

Despite the bad news continuing to flow out of West Africa — of overfilled and understaffed treatment centers, of airlines suspending service into affected areas, of controversial quarantines, of body counts climbing by the day — Thursday also brought a sense that the international response to the crisis, widely criticized as slow and inadequate, is shifting into higher gear.

WHO issued a “roadmap” aimed at stopping the current Ebola outbreak within the next six to nine months. It includes dramatically scaling up efforts to contain the spread of the disease and treat those stricken by it, increased resources at hospitals and isolation centers, ensuring safe burials and more aggressive public awareness campaigns. The agency said it also will work to clear logistical “bottlenecks” that have made it difficult to get disinfectants, body bags, gloves and other medical supplies to the areas where they are desperately needed.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/sense-of-urgency-heightens-over-ebola-crisis/2014/08/28/3ced2ca2-2ee3-11e4-bb9b-997ae96fad33_story.html

[Peacetrain]

1. Viruses do mutate..

And it is a frightening thing to contemplate, because this is such a deadly thing..

[B2G]

2. My fear is that it's passing more easily

If that happens, then all bets are off.

[CreekDog]

9. i thought your fear was that the African Summit was going to happen in Washington DC?

http://upload.democraticunderground.com/10025316192

[B2G]

10. Yep, it was

Next question?

[dixiegrrrrl]

3. and now.....Senegal Confirms Its 1st Case of Ebola

The infected person is a young man from Guinea, Health Minister Awa Marie Coll Seck told reporters.

The outbreak that has killed more than 1,500 people began last year in Guinea, which shares a border with Senegal. Since then, the disease has spread to Liberia, Sierra Leone and Nigeria. At least 3,000 people have contracted the virus.

The arrival of the dreaded disease in Senegal, whose capital Dakar is a major transportation hub for the region, is likely to increase fears about the disease’s uncontrolled spread even further.

The U.N. health agency has warned that the disease could eventually infect 20,000 people, and unveiled a plan Thursday to stop transmission in the next six to nine months.

http://time.com/3221694/senegal-confirms-its-1st-case-of-ebola/

[progressoid]

4. More people will die from food poisoning this year than Ebola.

It will be contained.

[truedelphi]

5. Great point. However, news headlines about ebola will proceed.

The media knows people turn the news on to hear all about the latest possibility of Contagion Whatever.

Even though so much of it is bogus.

For instance, Avian flu. A few things everyone should know about it: it exists and is prevalent. It is also contagious, so if you live somewhere in the USA you have already been exposed to it, and probably already have contracted it.

But those facts are too "oh hum" to bother making. Instead every time it is "discovered" in some dead bird, the news media acts like bubonic plague has come roaring back and is about to wipe out the human race. (Which even bublonic plague can no longer do, as we have the drugs that stop it.)

[LordGlenconner]

30. But food poisoning is boring

And so is the flu, and other maladies. They don't feed the fear machine the same way.

[jeff47]

6. OH MY GOD WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Oh wait, every fucking virus on the planet mutates almost constantly. Why do you think there's a new flu shot every year? The virus mutated.

Ebola coverage demonstrates that we need to do a much better job teaching basic biology.

[B2G]

8. A lot of people are going to die

In West Africa. Are they unimportant? Do you have any idea what the suffering is like over there right now?

I am fully aware that viruses mutate. What is important in this instance is 'how'. Ebola outbreaks typically burn themselves out before they get the chance to significantly do so...but not this time.

Which should concern everyone.

[jeff47]

12. Yep, definately need to do a better job teaching biology

because your post makes almost no sense.

Mutation happens very regularly whenever the virus replicates. The virus is replicating constantly in monkeys or other mammals. It's just not as deadly in those populations.

It doesn't need a human population to mutate. In fact, there's already a bunch of strains of Ebola.

The reason this outbreak is lasting longer is every previous outbreak has been in rural areas. Small, low-density population results in a shorter outbreak with fewer dead. This outbreak is in cities, which means it's going to be running for a while.

As for the people of West Africa, your panic isn't going to help them.

[B2G]

13. I'm panicking?

It amazes me how whenever someone posts an ebola thread, the number of replies accusing the OP as being some kind of fear monger.

Some people want to remain informed about this.

[jeff47]

14. Well, the process that has been going on for thousands-to-millions of years

Now you are declaring "all bets are off". Or might be off. Because you've read an article that uses a word you think indicates danger.

That isn't the response of a calm person who just wants to remain informed about what's going on.

Not to mention, step 1 of being informed is finding out the basics of how the thing works.

[B2G]

15. If it mutates to an airborne strain, they are.

So far the virus with this outbreak has mutated at least 300 times. That is bad for diagnostic testing because it becomes less reliable.

And the longer the virus is around, the higher the likelihood it will mutate in a way that is very beneficial it.

[jeff47]

16. Let's try this:

How many people in the US die every year from the flu?

About 23,000. Every year.

How many people in West Africa have died from Ebola?

About 1,500.

So far the virus with this outbreak has mutated at least 300 times. That is bad for diagnostic testing because it becomes less reliable.

If the virus mutates so massively that we can no longer detect it, then it is going to have a hell of a time infecting anyone. Because we haven't been mutating that much, and the virus has to remain compatible with our cells in order to be dangerous to us.

And the longer the virus is around, the higher the likelihood it will mutate in a way that is very beneficial it.

The virus has been around for, at a minimum, many thousands of years. Constantly infecting creatures, including humans. And constantly mutating. Being around for a few months does not suddenly make it far more likely to become a disease from a poorly-researched fiction book.

[XemaSab]

17. We're all descended from people who survived the flu

My great-grandfather's entire adopted family died of the flu, but he didn't.

He passed those genes on to my grandmother, who passed them on to my mother, who passed them on to me.

As far as I know, my ancestors haven't been exposed to the Ebola virus in hundreds of thousands of years, if ever.

Ain't no survivor genes there.

[jeff47]

19. The flu doesn't work that way.

There is not a single virus that is "the flu".

The flu virus infects mammals and birds. And it does a terrible job packaging up its DNA. As a result, the flu mutates much, much, much faster than everything else - it grabs random DNA from the mammal or bird and makes itself from that.

As a result, your ancestors resisting that particular flu virus does not confer any benefit on you resisting the brand-new flu virus that just appeared. Which is why there's a new flu vaccine every year - the virus is radically different.

ETA: Ebola does not have that packaging defect.

[moriah]

27. On the macro scale, they're correct -- on the micro scale, you're correct.

The longer the human population has to deal with a virus closely related enough to be considered part of the same species, though perhaps a different strain, yes, they do eventually develop basic ways to fight it through the pressures of natural selection.

What's more important than our ability to evolve is that both bacteria and viruses are really terribly adapted if they kill their hosts. They evolve a hell of a lot faster than we do, and do not evolve to try to kill us but rather to survive in us and breed and spread and have the happy virus/bacteria circle of life.

[jeff47]

29. Because the "macro scale" appears out of nowhere

instead of being the cumulative effects of the "micro scale".

[user_name]

18. Maybe the issue is in the wording in the article...

While mutations occur at a constant rate, they don't always survive because they are usually selected against. That is why the Zaire strain of ebola has maintained relatively constant genetics over time. The implication is that, with humans as a host, selection is working in a new way on the genetics allowing the mutations to persist.

I am certainly not panicked about ebola, but I think that these persistent mutations could be cause for concern. Ebola may never affect us personally, but it is and will continue to have a significant impact on West Africa that should be important to all of us as human beings.

[jeff47]

20. The point is the virus is not mutating any faster than

it has been mutating for at least thousands of years. Those "persistent mutations" you fear have been happening for at least thousands of years, probably millions. Ebola does not have flu's packaging defects, so being in humans does not increase the mutation rate compared to its usual hosts.

There's no reason that mutation is more dangerous now. But it does a fantastic job of getting people to read the story.

[user_name]

24. Maybe I didn't word my reply well either...

Mutation are constant, but significant mutations are not. I got the impression that they witnessed the virus mutating in ways that they had not witnessed in the past, ways that changed the nature of the organism.

[jeff47]

26. No, that's still misconceptions.

Mutation are constant, but significant mutations are not.

Nope. Mutations are constant. So are significant mutations. After all, they're created by mutations.

You can get an "explosion of diversity" when life enters a previously-uninhabited place. But that isn't caused by "significant mutations" becoming more common. It happens because fewer mutations are lethal because there's much less competition.

I got the impression that they witnessed the virus mutating in ways that they had not witnessed in the past, ways that changed the nature of the organism.

No, this appears to be just a new strain developing, just like every past new strain. It doesn't help that there is not a hard-and-fast line for what makes something a new strain. We think it's a new strain because it's significantly less lethal than previous strains.

What's different is people are writing up stories about it, and being in cities means those stories can be written for a long time.

[XemaSab]

21. I'm alarmed because everything WHO and the CDC say sounds like BS

Yeah, there's going to be 20,000 cases before they get it all neatly mopped up.

Sure.

Right.

There are 50,000 people living in West Point, Liberia, and the local medical facilities are already totally overwhelmed with the relatively small caseload now. I was musing last night that there are going to be other diseases and whatnot piggybacking on top of this, and sure enough, I read this morning that malaria patients and women in childbirth aren't getting care because the medical facilities are so swamped. And it's spread to Senegal.

Tracking down people who have come into contact with Ebola patients is how outbreaks have been managed in the past, and that horse has left the barn.

But they're going to get this all dealt with in 6 months. Trust them.

[moriah]

22. It needs a human population to study how it mutates in humans.

Because given different biological pressures to survive in different organisms, different mutation frequencies may emerge. And it is important for science to know these things, to be able to make sure testing continues to detect all strains that can harm us instead of releasing someone out of quarantine who is carrying a harmful mutation of the virus still. Also, to identify strains that may develop, like Ebola Reston, that do not actually harm humans but can infect us, because they have immense scientific value to understanding ways to fight Ebola strains that do harm humans -- it's possible that we might even be able to develop effective vaccines from those mutations, and we'll never know about them unless they're discovered.

I am saddened that 10% of the minds that helped try to understand this virus are already dead from it. That information alone was worth posting the article for. It is always a tragedy to me when bright minds determined to help alleviate suffering are taken from us, like the AIDS researchers who died during the MH-17 crash.

-----

Sure, it's not in our back yards.... until a traveler comes here with it. And even then, we're so well-prepared it wouldn't spread far here. We all had a far greater chance of dying from Swine Flu.

But posting about it isn't panic. Nor is washing your hands during flu season. (Wearing a mask 24x7 like some I saw was a bit of overkill, but ...)

[jeff47]

28. No, it really doesn't.

We aren't bizarre creatures that massively change the mutation rate of viruses.

Also, for the virus to change so much that it is no longer detected by an ELISA or similar means the virus probably isn't dangerous anymore. That level of radical change is going to greatly hamper its ability to infect humans. We didn't mutate. If you change the entire outside of the virus, it's very unlikely that it can infect humans.

Sure, it's not in our back yards.... until a traveler comes here with it. And even then, we're so well-prepared it wouldn't spread far here. We all had a far greater chance of dying from Swine Flu.

But posting about it isn't panic. Nor is washing your hands during flu season. (Wearing a mask 24x7 like some I saw was a bit of overkill, but ...)

Shouted: A traveler will bring it here!!!!! We're gonna die!!!
Whispered: (oh, but we're better prepared. flu's worse)

[Ilsa]

11. Yes, sooner or later. nt

[lpbk2713]

7. Gary Sinese and Molly Ringwald will survive.

I've seen this one.

[moriah]

23. You're thinking of this article, right?

http://www.iflscience.com/health-and-medicine/researchers-may-have-created-h1n1-flu-strain-capable-evading-immune-system

Also, Molly Ringwald was *terrible* as Frannie. Absolutely awful.

[XemaSab]

25. HBO needs to do a remake

Three seasons, eight episodes per season.

You know you want it.

[conservaphobe]

31. :O